Should China and the United States Go To War?

The United States stated she will sail her warships within China’s manmade island’s or islands’ 12 nautical mile, and China openly replied that it would not allow any country to violate its territory.  In coming days, if United States indeed will sail within China’s manmade islands’ 12 nautical mile and if China is indeed going to use force to stop the American warships from entering the area, we may have an uncontrollable situation in which it’s insane just to fathom about the possibility of a situation like this to occur in the first place.  The biggest question is what will happen after if China indeed sinks a ship or two that belong to the United States?  Will the United States go to war with China if such an aftermath would occur?  Who will push the red nuclear button first?  We cannot take China as Iraq, because China got so much more capabilities than Iraq could ever wish for.  China knows United States, although economically weaker by days and months, still has a very strong military and so facing the United States won’t be a walk in the park either.  It just happens that Intelligence Squared Debates program got a debate show in which it asks the debaters to actively debate on the question of “Are China and U.S. long term enemies?”  The video is right after the break.

The long term enemies part the video may get it wrong, because countries don’t look at each other as buddies but potential competitors or pawns or necessary evils or enemies.  It isn’t strange when I stated like that, because it’s true.  Basically, nobody knows how the United States and China will behave toward each other in a much longer term.  Nonetheless, at the present time, United States and China are clearly on the verge of starting a dangerous proposition in which neither country may want to back down, consequently leading to a global war.  If China and United States are at war, the war environment won’t be a vacuum space in which the participants are only China and the United States.  In fact, I believe that a war between these two giants will pull in all sorts of countries that choose sides.  Even a country wants to be neutral in such a scenario may not have a choice to do so, because geographical reason or whatever, one or both giants may want to push such a country into war anyway.

We can have a debate all we want on how long U.S. and China would be enemies, but if someone is crazy enough to think that it’s sensible to have China and United States go to war, we cannot rule out a situation in which nuclear weapons would fall off from the sky in both directions toward both countries.  By the way, Russia is China’s neighbor.  If Russia sees nuclear missiles from the United States heading toward the east, what do you think Russia will do?  If I’m a Russian leader, I would definitely think that the nuclear missiles are heading my way, and so I must reply in kind with my own nuclear missiles.  Meanwhile China too would be in panic and push the red nuclear button.  From my understanding, both China and Russia together have more nuclear weapons than the United States.  It’s not a situation I like to see for sure, because I don’t want to see my life and countless other people lives to be wasted away in seconds for power politics in geopolitical common sense.

In my opinion, geopolitical common sense is opposite from treating thy neighbor the way you want to be treated common sense, because geopolitical common sense is about not having to lose one’s position, power, and so on.  To put it bluntly, nobody wants to be a little guy, because being a king is always better.  A king can have his way, and a little guy will often have to swallow a hurtful pride.  Nonetheless, whenever we include nuclear weapons into the equation, it’s hard for a sane person to think it would be possible for United States and China to go to an all out war.  Perhaps, one side likes to think that such an all out war is insane, and so a controllable war would be possible.  One side may think that at some point, a situation got to a point that nuclear weapons may be used, they could negotiate deals to unwind down the war and nuclear weapons will not be used.  Unfortunately, in a war, I don’t think it’s that easy to control or wish a situation to occur the way we like it.  Thus, we may want to unwind the war down in a war in which nuclear weapons would be used, the enemy may not know our best intention and misread the intention somehow and nuclear weapons would be used anyway.

It’s scary to see the biggest boys on the block with nuclear weapons are about to strangle each other out.  Right after 9/11 of 2001 terrorist attack on World Trade Center’s twin towers in New York, time had become ever more dangerous.  It’s cliche to say that we are living in an interesting time, but I think cliche or not we are actually witnessing a time in which humanity is at risk of losing the sanity of it all.  What is even crazier?  It is that in a time in which I attended middle school, a time in which it was way before 9/11 of 2001, I had read something from a book in which a title I totally have now forgotten, and this something predicted the explosion of a major landmark in New York.  On 9/11 of 2001, I could not believe of what I’d witnessed on that day, and it reminded me a prediction I’d read in a book way back then.  How could a prediction be so true even though prediction is purely a fiction?  In my opinion, prediction is a fiction unless it becomes real.  Today, some people like to use bible prophecy which had been written eons ago to predict a war between China and the United States.  I want to say this, be careful of what you wish for!  A prediction may come true if we believe it and allow it to happen.

Advertisements

China’s Aircraft Carrier Entered Tartus To Support Russia and Iran In Syrian Force Building

Something big is happening under the surface, but we have no idea what is going on.  Basically, security-intelligence.org’s article “DEBKAfile Exclusive Report: A Chinese aircraft carrier docks at Tartus to support Russian-Iranian military buildup” suggests that China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning has docked at Syrian port Tartus to back the Russians up on building up forces in Syria for fighting against ISIS.  I’m not very well informed with the Middle East and Syria situations at all, but this news tells me that united force building of Russia, China, and Iran in this region prepares for something big.  Perhaps, fighting ISIS is only a piece of the puzzle, because ISIS isn’t strong enough to encourage China, Russia and Iran to combine forces and take actions in this region.  Without China in the picture, I think the overall picture of the Syrian conflict was murky but somewhat clearer than how it’s now.  Meanwhile, China is cooperating with the United States in boosting trades and agreeing on cyber security.  Nonetheless, geopolitically, China is helping out Russia and Iran in securing Bashar Assad’s power in Syria.

World Powers Of Today Won’t Be Around When World War III Reshuffles World Players

I think we are living in a period in which is very similar to China’s Warring States period.  Of course, there are many things that will refute this point of view soundly.  For an example, we can say that this is the modern era with modern technologies of all sorts, weaponized or not, and so we should not go back too far into the past to figure out the future.  In respect to modernists and contemporary thinkers, I think they have an argument if they’re trying to make this case, but I don’t think they are 100% correct.  In a grander picture, China’s Warring States period reminds us how states were fighting for supremacy.  Once, there were many in the East, but once relatively modest Qin state became the supreme State of them all.  In today picture, we are seeing the same struggle in a larger scale of course, because we are talking about a possible World War III.

United States is trying to retain the global supremacy at a cost of spending greater sum of money for military and whatnot.  Russia is trying to stand up tall and strong again like it once was a super power.  China is re-emerging as a Middle Kingdom again.  Many other important region players such as Turkey, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and so forth are trying to carve out more world space for themselves by taking the advantages of the struggle between huge powers (e.g., United States, China, Russia).  If we look closer at this big picture, it seems the world is playing a similar rhyme to the one in China’s Warring States period.  In fact, this scary picture may also look like any other past period that got many world powers struggling for resources, territories, and cultural supremacy.

I’m sure there were ups and downs for a state that was trying to survive China’s Warring States period.  Thus, it is obvious that at the time, small state that should look harmless was able to dominate over the stronger ones.  Just like life, in natural state, things can go awfully weird and non-straight line.  This means, it’s possible for a harmless, small state of today to dominate the future, globally.  This means we should not think arrogantly that United States, China, and Russia would always be the dominant powers.  Furthermore, we can look back at World War II and see that this war had completely reshuffled many world players’ strengths at the time.  I think Britain was most noticeably shrunken and given way to the United States rise till now.  Although, I think the United States was risen for quite some time already before the WWII, but the rising pace was accelerated even faster and more intense as WWII played out.  Right after WWII, many European powers were drained out of resources, money, and whatnot, thus the United States and Russia became the two most dominant players that created the so called the Cold War.

I’m not a history buff, but I think even with my measly historical knowledge it’s enough for me to see that if World War III to occur, the world will once again see a reshuffle of world powers.  Perhaps, the so called the superpowers of today will no longer be the lead countries after the next world war.  This is why it’s rather sad to see so many online commenters who joked casually about the next world war as if they wished for the next big war to happen, according to their online comments under various online news articles.  Perhaps, Einstein would be dead wrong on the next world war, because it’s possible that cooler heads in the future might use nuclear weapons in limited way, preventing the nuclear winter here on earth.  Nonetheless, such an aftermath won’t look pretty either, because the depopulation of earth in such a scale won’t be easily recovered.  It’s sad to see that us humans dare to think about depopulation, because we fear of running out of resources and spaces.  Why don’t we be constructive instead and think up way to share available resources.   Even better, we can improve our technology to allow us humans to colonize outer space planets and moons so we can mine for even more resources.  Basically, there is untold and near unlimited amount of resources that are waiting for us to mine out in space, and yet here on earth we are killing each other for scraps.

Why am I writing this blog post now?  I’m seeing so many countries are preparing for the next big war.  Especially, the big boys like the United States, China, and Russia are spending even more money on their military.  Perhaps, I’m just paranoid about this, but I fear that countries with stronger military incline to push for war as they think that their military can win war.  Of course, it’s not wrong for a country to have a strong military in case she needs to defend herself in an unexpected war.  With that being said, I don’t think it’s right for a country with strong military to encourage illogical war.  Furthermore, we are no longer in a time period in which weapons can only kill hundreds, but we are in a time period in which our weapons can annihilate a city in one go.  In such a scenario, the aftermath could render a city unusable for decades to come and more.  I don’t think war is wise, because death and destruction do come only when nothing can be agreed upon.  We humans are built to think, and so we should let common sense runs wild!  We should not be like animals that may eat their own children.  Bringing the next big war to fruition may have the consequence that is no different than animals that eat their children.  Such cannibalistic behavior should only be reserved for Hollywood films and not for real life.  In my opinion, the next big war will definitely reshuffle the world powers of today!

Japanese Man Who Set Himself On Fire To Protest Japan’s Prime Minister Abe From Weakening Antiwar Constitution

As time pushes our century forward (i.e., 21st century), we are witnessing more conflicts around the world.  In this moment in time, we have to wonder why are we moving forward and yet we are still facing serious conflicts as if we are still living in the 20th century.  Of course, the obvious answer is that we are not so progressive even though we like to think we are.  In fact, humanity’s innate nature might not allow us to advance our civilizations to the point of no conflicts and wars.  Perhaps, we might just as well give up?  That’s so easy to say, but do we want to really take on the action of giving up?  If we do, it means we are coward, because we don’t even try to fight back to see how can we progress to the point of no conflicts and wars.

As conflicts and wars either are lurking in the shadow or at the foreground, we’re seeing mindsets of people that are either don’t care (i.e., with their ears and eyes shut) or do care.  Nonetheless, many people who do care might not have the power to stand up to the conflicts and wars, because they’re just another regular Joe (i.e., average folks).  So, whenever I see a pacifist who risks one’s life to protest against a possible war or conflict, I really do admire such a person.  Within me I know I might not have such a courage — and seeing someone as average as such who got the courage to do the unthinkable to promote constructive progress for the world — I suddenly feel such a person is larger than life and no longer average and this makes me very humble.

Seeing a man whose view may not be played out at all into the future — because the future is very unpredictable — I still think he’s a hero since his view is a pacifist one.  A Japanese man who set himself on fire to protest against his country’s prime minister Shinzo Abe, because he didn’t want to see Mr. Abe to weaken Japan’s antiwar Constitution.  His view is a pacifist one, but his measure of protest was too extreme I must say.  Setting oneself on fire is like no going back, because the damage could be irreversible unless the medical technology/science nowadays can totally erase the burn marks.  He’s lucky one since he’s still alive after setting himself on fire, because I think one can be killed easily by setting oneself on fire.

Although his protest measure was too extreme, his view is deserving to be praised.  After all, Japan had gone through a very terrible past which it had done to itself.  Without elaborating on this much — because this is not a blog post on history — in World War 2 Japan sided with Germany’s Nazi and brought destructions to the known world at the time, and since Japan and Germany lost the war the world had placed extra measures to prevent Japan from having a strong military again.  This man who set himself on fire doesn’t want this status quo to change.  I surmise within his mind that a weakened antiwar Constitution for Japan just might allow Japan to once again repeat the past horrific mistakes.  His pacifist view might not be what Japan’s current society has in mind, but it’s a noble view indeed.  His courage to set himself on fire for something that might not even be happening in the future is foolish but brave!  Personally, I can’t say the man is a fool for setting himself on fire, because his pacifist view is too noble!

Check out the Japanese man who set himself on fire in the video right after the break!

Source:  http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/30/world/asia/japanese-protester-sets-himself-on-fire-in-tokyo.html?_r=0 (link)

What I Think About China Influence For Businesses And Consumers In The World; Just Rehashing What We Already Know, Really!

As China’s economy and military might grow ever stronger, what I think about China Influence for businesses and consumers in the world?  According to Wikipedia’s “Demographics of China” article, based on 2012 census China’s population is at 1,344,130,000.  I think it’s somewhat bigger now since we’re in 2013.  Nonetheless, 2012 census is recent enough, and so we have the idea how big the population there is in China.  With such a big population, China has a humongous human capital potential.  Nonetheless, if China’s economy has yet to grow to where it’s today already, I don’t think China’s humongous human capital potential can be a positive force just yet for China.  We know this isn’t the case!  In fact, we know that China’s economy is continuing to grow at a really fast pace while the world’s economy is still on life support.  No wonder that we see China Influence is growing everywhere in the world.

According to RT’s “China leaves behind the US as world’s leading trade partner” article, since 2011 China is topping the United States in term of who has more trading partners in the world.  According to RT’s article I just mentioned, in 2011, China traded with 124 countries, but the United States could only trade with 76.  Before 2011, it was the United States that led the trading pacts, but China overtook the United States since 2011.  This fact is still true today I suppose since there isn’t any newer facts/news that corroborate otherwise.  Obviously, who has more trade partners will have more saying in world trade matters.  In our recent time, I guess China would be the one who can dictate the direction of the world in term of trading.

As China Influence grows in trading, China can dictate more trading terms.  For an example, if I’m China, I would dictate how I would like to pay for my import and get payment for my export.  It seems that China is already doing this!  If I’m not wrong, I’ve been hearing that China has signed some sorts of trading agreements with certain trade partners to have trades to be made in Yuan (Chinese currency) and not in Dollar (U.S.A. currency).  I think China is doing this to protect herself from having to hold too much dollars.  Also, China is being pressured by United States to have the Yuan appreciates, therefore China is hedging to have more Yuan(s) on hand as the Yuan is going to appreciate in value anyway.  Holding stronger Yuan(s) in China’s whatever accounts will allow China to become wealthier and have stronger ability to purchase whatever abroad and fund whatever locally better than ever before.  With the one example above, how China dictate trades to be made in Yuan, we can see China Influence in trading is very powerful, because China can dictate trading terms in many many more ways and on China’s own terms.

As China is trying to grow even more powerful in all aspects, China is also keen on having their population to spend more.  This way, China too has the influence in importing.  I think it’s natural for Chinese to import more since they’re getting wealthier by the day; therefore, whatever China does to stimulate this sort of behavior, China will see Chinese consumers open up their wallets easier.  Nonetheless, Chinese are fanatic savers, therefore it’s in their DNA to spend wisely, and so we might not see Chinese go crazy over spending.  Still, I think as time progresses and as Chinese grow wealthier by the day, their population has to import more and more and spend more and more.  With a billion plus of people, China will dominate world import even though only a quarter of Chinese population go on spending spree the Chinese fanatic saving way.

As China dominate world import, she can influence the world import greatly.  She can dictate how the world business would be ran.  Fictitiously, for an example, she could make it clear that Chinese people love leather, therefore whatever leather businesses in the world would be greatly benefited in term of exporting.  With importing power/influence, China can wield importing trade terms in her favor.

Combining export and import influences, China is a force to be reckoned with in term of world trade matters.  We know that with great power comes great responsibility, if you don’t mind I borrow this phrase from Spider-Man movie.  Basically, I’m just trying to hint that China can use her China Influence just like how United States have had been doing for awhile now.  China is different though!  Albeit, some world trade interests might converge, China has different culture(s) and interests.  China is on the rise, therefore she wants to be going up and up and just a lot more of going up.  Anything else would be against her interests.  If I’m China, I would do the same!  This is why we’re seeing China is spending more for her military.  This isn’t a surprise but logical, because she needs to build up her military foundation, innovation, structure, strategy, and whatever military to protect her economic might.  Will this ultimately collide with United States’ overall economic/military grand strategy?  The answer is obvious to whoever is willing to take a closer look, right?

People might argue that China does not have friends, because people are using the traditional views that they have had of China.  I think these people aren’t keeping up with time.  Let be logical, whoever has the money has the influence and friends.  This is fact for most of the time in the real world!!!  It cannot be denied, because we’re not watching unfolding events in a movie or a fairy tale!  I think China will make more friends than ever before even though there are those South China Sea islands + land + water + resources disputes and East China Sea dispute.  I don’t pretend that I follow enough about these China Sea’s disputes to know enough details on them, and so I won’t talk about China Sea’s issues.  Instead, I just want to emphasize that China isn’t so aggressive in China Sea to the point that she is starting a war.  Instead, I think China will use her so called China Influence to influence the outcomes of China Sea’s disputes.  I think China will get what she wants in the end, because either you start a war with China or be succumbed under China Influence.  I know in this day and age, starting a traditional war isn’t something that we can just underestimate, and China isn’t military weak!  You can argue about this, but the truth is that who is in their right mind to start a war with China and/or Russia in a nuclear age?  No need to say more, because China is nuclear capable!!!

In summary, I think as we’re moving ahead, China Influence will grow ever stronger, and she can dictate world matters in her own terms a lot more.  It’s all depending on how aggressive she will be!  Furthermore, we know nobody is crazy enough to go to war against China, unless craziness will actually happen!!!  China Influence can dictate how businesses and consumers around the world behave, because it’s obvious that with money, power, and influence she can persuade world trade matters to favor her trade terms.  Yes, I don’t talk much about China’s internal issues such as pollution and political dissents, and I’m doing this on purpose.  How come?  We all know that all countries have some sorts of internal issues, but not that many internal issues can be a death knell to a country’s health.  Furthermore, it’s all depending on how a country progresses in economics, military, policy, and world influence that allows such a country to weather the storms, whether that be internal or external issues.  China is looking strong in economics, military, policy, and world influence, therefore I don’t see how China cannot weather both internal and external issues.  Of course, I cannot be absolutely right, because I don’t know much.  Nonetheless, I think my intuition tells me that China is going to have a hell lot of fun in influencing the world’s businesses and consumers for a long time to come.

Sources: