Inescapable World – Ticking Time Bomb Of Uncertanties

In chess, there are circumstances that you could force your enemy into a position of no escape, and of course, if the enemy seizes the opportunity first then you would be the one who could not escape the trap.  It could be your king which is the most important piece on the board to be forced into a position of retreating into a trap and cannot escape.  I think it’s the same for bigger picture as in a national circumstance.

When a country got too many friends to please, too many problems to be solved, too many places to keep the peace, then it’s a lot harder for such a country to be able to be nimble and flexible.  Without nimbleness and flexibility, stiffness could creep in and force a country into many weird positions that are unfavorable.  Too many unfavorable positions could push such a country into a subtle death trap which eventually envelopes into the inescapable trap!

Then again we could also argue that when a nation is a hermit, it’s easier for others to gang up on such a nation.  In today world, when there are so many powers that aspire to be more than what they’re yesterday, I think it’s a ticking timebomb of uncertainties.  Like if you do you’re damned and if you don’t you’re damned still.

For an example, let’s say a fictitious country named Carol is making a lot of friends, and she knows that she hates Bob, the hermit, a lot.  Bob though, he would love to inflict real damage on Carol, but he doesn’t have any friend to help him out in doing such a thing against Carol.  Friends of Carol got a friend who is the only reluctant, casual friend of Bob, and they know this friend, for some strange reasons, doesn’t want Carol and Bob to have any confrontation.  Let’s say Bob tried to tickle Carol in the most grotesque way, and Carol went on a rampage against Bob.  Friends of Carol suddenly didn’t want to have anything to do with the whole madness, because Bob got a friend that prevented others from involving with Carol and Bob.  But then this Bob’s mysterious friend suddenly teamed up with Bob to take Carol down.  Now, Carol’s friends got a problem, because they don’t know if they should side with Carol or Bob’s mysterious friend!

Let’s say Carol and Bob both thought that they would be able to outsmart the other, but perhaps one of them didn’t know that a string of scenarios that came before and after their ugly feud could turn one of them into a mouse that got trapped in a rat trap.  The inescapable trap is definitely easier to imagine for today’s geopolitical matter I think!  Why?  Too many countries got their own ambitions to worry about, and so they are making friends and enemies left and right all the time.  Just take a look at Syria and various parts of the Middle East and we could see that sometimes we couldn’t know who is a friend and who is an enemy anymore — of course, it’s also depending on which side you’re on too!

Sometimes though, I think sitting pretty and only making move when it’s prudent and safe would keep a nation safe for a long time to come in a world like ours today!  Why?  The one who sits out the longest would be the victorious one in the end!  I think it’s smart to save up energy and resources — while making gains in both energy and resources when you’re in a favorable position — for the right time!  Of course, if you’re being forced into an unfavorable position, then sitting out may not be possible in the end.  That would be unfortunate for sure.


Will AI Be Used In Dealmaking Soon?

In the very near future, when Artificial Intelligence is more capable, will governments around the world readily deploy AI to do things such as drafting a free trade agreement?  As I’m watching the news clip on YouTube, and this person states that an FTA between two parties is going to take a very long time, possibly years, to complete since complex deals could be involved with complex, new technology and so forth.  This is true as we’re human and it takes time for us humans to digest and make sense of things before we could readily draw upon an agreement of something.  For AI though, things could be fast-track in milliseconds, I assume.

I guess when such a time comes, whichever country has a more advanced AI could get an upper hand in an FTA deal, assuming that each country won’t be able to replicate the other country’s AI tech.  Obviously, if a country’s technology is so easily being stolen, then their future AI tech is not going to be able to be kept as a secret.  What’s worse is that a competitor could replicate and improve on the tech to leave the original creator in the dust.  As the former dilly-dally without any progress, the latter may also be able to figure out the flaws within the former’s AI tech, allowing the latter to exploit the flaw to squeeze out an advance in a deal such as an FTA deal between two trading countries.

Let’s humor ourselves and imagine how a scenario would unfold when a country without AI tech is engaging in a fictitious FTA deal with a country that got a really advanced AI tech.  Obviously, no AI secrets would be included in the deal!  I suppose the country without AI tech would look at the FTA draft that they’d taken years to mold without any confidence when they propose the terms in the FTA meeting with the counterpart that got an advanced AI tech as the assistant in the dealmaking.  Meanwhile, the side with advanced AI assistant would probably have already made a decision on how to negotiate the terms beyond the first draft that the side without advanced AI assistant is proposing.

I think the side without advanced AI assistant would probably be even more cautious in coming to an agreement with the terms that are being proposed by the side with an advanced AI assistant, knowing that the advanced AI assistant would probably have given better advice to the owner of the AI assistant.  Perhaps, the side with advanced AI assistant could use the AI to come up with terms that are so subtle that allow the counterpart to not being able to see the true meaning of being taken advantages of.  Would this allow the FTA deal to fast-track in real time?

Hyperloop vs Super High-speed Maglev Train, Which is cheaper and more affordable? Which is faster and safer and more enjoyable?

Remember Hyperloop?  Elon Musk’s Hyperloop suggestion is probably in the work by someone in the West, but in China, they’re testing super high-speed train that could reach 1000km/h.  I think Chinese are combining the concept of Hyperloop and Maglev Train into one, and this could allow any Maglev train to travel in a vacuum which increases the speed of the Maglev train.  This makes me wonder which is more efficient and cheaper to build, Hyperloop or Super High-speed Maglev train?  I think Hyperloop requires digging a tunnel, but the Chinese could build durable but affordable materials to form a vacuum which encases the Maglev train.

Speculation of the day: I think light is a particle in nature but behaving as wave when it rides the wave!

My speculation of the day!  I could be way off the mark, but this isn’t going to stop me from thinking out loud.  I’m remembering fondly how I’d read something about why some scientists think light’s behavior suggests that it’s particle but others would argue that light is a wave.  Then some more people would suggest that light is both wave and particle.  For me, I think a light is a particle but becoming a wave as it interacts with a particular environment which gives its wavelike property.

Imagine this!  Can a fish realize that it’s swimming in water?  The water, of course, is a wavelike entity.  Regardless, I don’t think a fish could realize that, and yet it swims in it as its dear life depends on the water’s wavelike property.

Imagine this!  Can a human realize that he or she is swimming in the air?  If he or she is swimming in the water, this person would definitely realize that he or she is swimming in the water.  Regardless, air is second nature to each human, and so we don’t easily realize that we’re swimming in it.  We’re thinking that it’s invisible and we’re breathing it in naturally without realizing we’re swimming in the wave of air.

I think when a light particle hits the wave of invisible air, it rides the wave and becomes one with the wave thus exhibits the behavior of the wavelike property.  When a light particle hits an environment which requires it to bounce back as if a tennis ball had just hit a hard surface, then the light particle would behave as a particle.

In summary, my speculation is that light is just a particle, but it behaves as a wave when it rides the wave of whatever!


Feeling Like A Broken Record, But I Admit Cryptocurrencies Are Really Broken! I Don’t Trust Bitcoin!

Why I trust the bank and not Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency?  Simple!  Origin’s traceable trail!  What do I mean by this?  The time you deposit your money into the bank either through electronic means such as mobile or you could deposit your money in person, a third party, in this case, the bank is there to take the responsibility of safekeeping your money.  Sure, the bank could have a system hiccup where your bank account would show up with a wrong value, but the bank has the responsibility to generate other traceable trails of your money such as paper statement, online bank statement and so forth.  Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency is a different matter because there is no third party that is responsible for your money!  When something goes wrong with your electronic wallet such as corruptive memory on your device would destroy everything you store!  Cryptocurrency exchanges could be the third party to be responsible for your crypto coins, but these are new institutions that you could not trust and they got hacked too often!

In China, people are going cashless by using their mobile phone as the main medium to pay for things.  Still, their digital currency in their electronic wallet is tied to a medium of cash and a whole lot of other mediums such as check and so forth that could eventually generate into very noticeable trails of origin.  With such noticeable trails of origin, the owner of the money could always demand some sort of compensation when everything goes wrong such as the value of money is suddenly being misreported somehow.  These people, although in cashless society (almost), would be able to morph their medium of payment effortlessly — cash to check to digital numbers on their mobile to whatnot — with some sort of confidence that some sort of traceable trails of origin would back their transaction up clearly.

Although cryptocurrency’s blockchain is very rigid and vivid in showing transaction trails, the sender and receiver of the crypto-coins could hide behind the transaction which in the end could hurt their claim of the transaction.  What’s worse is that they could face a perfect storm when their device got corrupted or hacked and their wallet somehow was rendered broken — they won’t be able to open their wallet to show that they got the traceable trail of origin to back up their transactional claim so they could receive any compensation from whatever party that they’d dealt with.  As of now though, even if they’re proving that they’re the owner of a crypto wallet that sent out the crypto-coins, they mostly like are going to face anger and confusion as once the crypto-coins leave their wallet — these crypto-coins are gone forever and nobody would be able to compensate for the lost crypto-coins.

I think until the cryptocurrency tech could address the worries and weaknesses of the transactions that are being made by the blockchain and the frontend technology such as the cryptocurrency tech (e.g., Bitcoin, Litecoin, Namecoin) itself, nobody could fully feel comfortable of using such tech as a replacement for traditional forms of currencies.  I hate the feeling of being a broken record, but let’s be clear cryptocurrencies are facing real hurdles such as hackable, not widely acceptable, not being supported by the governments, relying too much on an electronic wallet as the trail of origin, facing corruptable electronic memory (i.e., RAM/hard-drive), no mean of compensation once crypto-coins got loose from the crypto-wallet, too much saturation as too many cryptocurrencies are in the existence, and so forth.

One more thing!  If someone stole the medium that you store your crypto-coins on such as your smartphone, you will never get these crypto-coins back!  Traditional forms of money such as the digital numbers that represent the dollar amount you got in your smartphone app would still be yours if your smartphone got stolen!  After all, the app on your smartphone is probably connected to your bank account and the app could once again be re-download and reconnected to your bank account. Perhaps, you’re using an app such as Starbucks app which requires you to preload the number of dollars before you could use it to pay for coffee — even a stolen mobile phone won’t be a problem since you could always re-download Starbucks app and reconnect to Starbucks’ server which got the proper dollar amount in your Starbucks account as before!  Crypto-wallet?  I don’t think so!