During War Time, It’s Still “The Economy, Stupid”

I don’t have a clue about military tech, and so I don’t dare to write anything on military tech.  Nonetheless, this has yet to discourage me from looking at military aspect in my own sense.  In my own sense, I feel that to win a war, a country doesn’t have to be dominated in military technology, but this holds true to certain extent only.  For an example, you can’t expect a battalion of swordsmen charging against a battalion of riflemen, because it would be suicidal for the battalion of swordsmen to do so.  But why did I say that military technology domination alone isn’t going to win a war?  Well, as long the opposition doesn’t lose the war too quickly, a longer war will give ample time for a studious opposition to drag out the war and turn the tide in their favor.  If I don’t get this wrong, Hitler gave the United States enough time to upgrade arm forces with horses into arm forces with average tanks and planes, and by the time the United States entered World War II Hitler was destined to be overwhelmed by all sides, even with Japan’s aggression against the allies.  At the time, Germany was more advanced in military technology than most countries.  Nonetheless, World War II wasn’t won in days but years, and so the allies had ample time to regroup and turn the tide in their favor.

When the United States attacked Saddam Hussein in March 19th of 2003, Iraq was overwhelmed by United States’ military technology, and so the war lasted only in weeks.  The aftermath is rather messy, because I think it is still not being fully resolved even now which is the year of 2015.  The Iraq traditional war was quickly won by the United States and few allies, but the non-traditional Iraq war has yet to be completed.  Too many groups are forming up to fight for their own piece of victory in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and probably Ukraine; I’m not sure these groups have any weak connection in term of foe and friend to each other.  Basically, I’m getting confused which group is fighting for what as we speak, and so I think the whole Middle East is very messy.  Perhaps, I’m not smart enough to be informed about the current situation in the Middle East, but I think the situation has been dragging on too long.  This won’t be good for any party which is involving in this Middle East conflict.  Financially, it would be a big drain for a party to continually involve in the Middle East conflict.  Nonetheless, some groups may have find the conflict profitable, because without this conflict these group probably wouldn’t even exist in the first place.

My sense tells me that military tech domination alone won’t go far unless the opposition is not organized and got no way of fighting back.  Also, if a war drags on too long, it would drain the resources of any party which involves in a war.  The resources could be in the form of money, oil, human, and whatever.  Furthermore, if the opposition has enough units to overrun many well funded, trained, and superior military tech arm forces, the war could be dragged on much longer, giving the opposition a military edge to turn the tide in their favor.  The next World War will also be involved with the proliferation of nuclear weapons, and so any military tech domination would not matter as much.  Of course, if a country could eliminate the opposition’s nuclear technology beforehand, the opposition would stand little chance in obtaining a victory.  Before countries begin exchanging bullets and bombs, financial war would be waged first.  A country that could withstand and come out ahead in financial war should have a military edge over a country that would lose in the financial war.  After all, soldiers need to be fed, military technology needs to be researched and manufactured, and so forth.  The longer the future World War would go on, the financial welfare of a country would become even more important and urgent.

Besides Personal Issues, Many Of Us Now May Face A Major War If North Korea Tension Won’t Calm Down!

Original caption: "Flying under radar con...

Original caption: “Flying under radar control with a B-66 Destroyer, Air Force F-105 Thunderchief pilots bomb a military target through low clouds over the southern panhandle of North Viet Nam. June 14, 1966.” (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As the world is getting weirder by the day, I wonder what weirdness the next morning will bring.  Many European economies that are in Euro zone are  looking like they are about to go supernova all the time; U.S. economy is not yet in a recovery and sort of stagnating; Syria is still in a deep civil war with proxy states choose sides (uttering chaos); elsewhere in the world I bet there are some conflicts that could be troubled as well, and so nobody is preparing for another conflict unless insanity creeps in.  Nonetheless, North Korea is threatening United States and South Korea.  Nonetheless, the West too is voicing and reacting louder than necessary, therefore things can get out of hand.  Russia joined in to warn all sides need to take a step back or things might get out of hand.  China had said something along the border of which Russia had voiced, but in a more neutral tone.  Surprisingly, China actually massed troops near North Korea’s border.  So, what is really going on folks?

My fear is that the West and North Korea war brinkmanships may get out of hand, and this will actually pull in more unwanted players than any side has ever anticipated.  No one likes to be threatened by anyone or by any mean.  Nonetheless, should we go to war for threats?  I think we should go to war only when an aggressor aggressively makes the first push, because war means there isn’t any real solution to attaining peace.  Furthermore, the days of small wars and bilateral wars had mostly been extinct.  Nowadays, any conflict can threaten to bring on multilateral conflict/war.  Just take a look at North Korea tension with the West as an example, one could see if the tension becomes more than just talk, not only the United States and her allies have to worry about North Korea’s actions, but China and her allies too have to worry about the outcome of North Korea conflict.

For sure, China would not want a destabilized North Korea.  China has big interest in keeping things to stay peaceful as they’re building their economy still, and a destabilized North Korea might make China’s neighbors to choose side.  When China’s neighbors choose side, trading between China and her neighbors might become destabilized too.  Also, I think China would not be happy if North Korea be absorbed by South Korea, because American troops then can border China in huge number.  Obviously, China is still a big trading partner of the United States, but I don’t think China likes the prospect of seeing American troops station near her border.  China is very keen on her Sun Tzu’s encirclement tactic, and the last thing China wants to see is to have herself to be contained and encircled by United States militarily, geopolitically, and economically.  I think, so far United States has the upper hand in encircled China militarily, but China has a stronger economy which is growing by the days.

I’m too young to have any real experience of Việt Nam war, because I only got to know of Việt Nam war through family accounts and history books, videos, and so on.  Nonetheless, what we know concretely is that North Vietnamese won the war over the South Vietnamese.  The South Vietnamese were Cộng Hoà, and North Vietnamese were Việt Cộng.  The Việt Nam war aftermath had North Vietnamese united and annexed the South Việt Nam with North Việt Nam as one, because North Vietnamese won the war after Americans pulled out (i.e., stopped the supports for the South Vietnamese).  During this time, China and Russia were no longer worried about the West involvement in Việt Nam.  Nonetheless, it was hard to say that China and Việt Nam became closer friends since Việt Nam was then invaded by China.  According to Wikipedia’s “Sino-Vietnamese War” article, China did that to warn Russia to back off on exerting influences into Southeast Asia.  Nonetheless, before China’s Việt Nam invasion, China and Russia were on the same page which to push the Americans out of Việt Nam.  They both achieved that, and the result was a united Việt Nam, under the ruling of the North Vietnamese.

When I look at Việt Nam war, I feel that I can understand North Korea conflict better.  How come?  First, both North Korea and Việt Nam border China.  Second, both North Korea and Việt Nam have had  or had a division among brothers, but Việt Nam’s north and south territories had already officially annexed as one.  North Vietnamese were also the enemies of the United States and vice versa.  Nonetheless, North Vietnamese are now ruling one Việt Nam, therefore the conflict between Việt Nam and the United States is no longer a conflict.  Furthermore, it seems that lately the United States is wooing Việt Nam ever closer to her side, to antagonize China.  North Korea is a different story, because she considered herself to be at war with the United States and South Korea.  As now, North Korea seems to have a more capable defensive and offensive capabilities than what the North Việt Nam once had (i.e., now it’s only Việt Nam).  Back then, China and Russia poured out a lot of efforts to help North Việt Nam secured South Việt Nam, and so North Việt Nam had successfully annexed South Việt Nam with North Việt Nam, making Việt Nam a unified country now.  Will the history to be repeated in North Korea?

Another Việt Nam war (figure of speech but with deep meaning) is definitely going to be very costly for the United States.  Unless, the United States think the last Việt Nam war was a joke, then by all means the United States can bomb North Korea.  Nonetheless, I think North Korea tension isn’t a simple one, and I fear it might be worse than the Việt Nam war.  After all, let be fair, everyone has their own interest, including North Korea.  I think a North Korea tension might become very costly for many sides, United States, China, and others.  In the past, North Việt Nam (i.e., now it’s only one Việt Nam) wasn’t a nuclear power, but today North Korea is a nuclear power.  So, North Korea tension can definitely be even more complicated than the Việt Nam war if all sides do not manage this so called, North Korean tension, carefully.

I’m not biased toward any side, but I’m worry about the possible devastating costs of a real Korean war.  Aside from money/economic costs, lot and lot of human lives will be at stake if a real Korean war breaks out.  I pray that there won’t be one.  I pray that North Korea will become peaceful as the South Korea.  A peaceful North Korea will keep the status quo, because I think the status quo is definitely better than an all out Korean war!  What do you think?