Around the world, China is increasing her presence as we speak. As China grows her global presence in geopolitics and world economy, competitive countries such as the United States have to worry about the future in which China will have more influence in all things global. If China is going to be too dominant and overtaking the United States in the influence of global affairs, the United States may have to find ways to cooperate with China. If the future isn’t about the cooperation of the two biggest countries in the world in term of economics and raw power, then the future is certainly going to be very grim. How grim? Perhaps in such a grim situation, the grimmest outcome might be of a zero sum game.
I can’t imagine the kind of hell that a zero sum game is going to be waged by the two most powerful countries in the world in a nuclear age. The implication of such a zero sum game in our time is definitely scary. If the United States and China are going to have a hot war in the future, both United States and China will force other countries to take side. This means we might have a new world war if the two most powerful countries in the world are going to have a hot war. Any sane person in my opinion would not want to witness a hot war between any two most powerful countries in the world, and so I think it’s very important for us humans to push for more cooperations to weed out the warmongers among us. In order for one society to cooperate with another, we need to understand each other. This means, the people in the United States need to understand more about China, and the people in China need to understand more about the United States. I believe more cooperations between the two giants of the world can only bring more peace and prosperity to the rest of the world. Most importantly, the cooperations between the two giants can also raise the quality of life for the people who are living in both countries (i.e., China and the United States).
In the video right after the break, professor Yasheng Huang gives a lecture on how capitalism has been developing in China, contributing to the huge growth of the Chinese economy that we’re seeing today. I think his lecture is profound. In the lecture, he honestly points out hidden problems that are existing and may exist within China. This means being a big country such as United States or China doesn’t mean big challenges are not there. In fact, I think the bigger the country the bigger the problems are going to come out of the woodwork.
In the video, professor Yasheng Huang insists that personal income dictates the real wealth of a country. He mentions how desperate a banker can become if regular people cannot afford to spend or buy house. By this he implicates that the regular folks are the healthy roots that hold the strong economy together. If regular folks cannot afford to spend on necessary things and housing, then businesses and housing construction have to slow down. This means the bank institutions become poorer as people won’t have money to spend and deposit and businesses won’t have money to pay back loans and whatnot. The real economy will decline if the everyday people cannot afford to spend on important things such as housing.
Personally, I partly agree with professor Yasheng Huang on the point that everyday folks with higher wages can grow the economy. Nonetheless, I think professor Yasheng Huang needs to also lecture on how inflation can play a pivotal role in dictating the real strength of the personal income. Inflation is very important in my opinion, because personal income can either be grander or weaker depends on the inflation. For an example, one dollar can purchase a cart of lollipops yesterday but can only buy one lollipop today has great effect on how people spend their personal income to grow an economy. In fact, I think a growing economy is the result of many positive economics factors, and the optimization of the balance of personal income and inflation is one of those very important, positive economics factors. This is why I think China is not only wanting to grow her economy in quality and quantity, but she also wants to control her inflation in a way that it makes sense for everyday people in China.
Since we’re living in a global market, inflation can be exported and imported. This means inflation policy in influential countries such as the United States can have great implication for the inflation in China. Currency war is one of the tools that a country can use to import and export inflation. If the United States imports inflation by weakening her currency exchange rate to promote export competitiveness, she can induce high inflation in China for China has accumulated United State’s treasury bonds over a trillion of dollars. Simply put, if United States weakens her currency can induce China to mimic the United States’ inflation policy to keep China’s export market and United States’ treasury bond value up.
Nonetheless, weakening one own country’s currency to induce higher inflation means to weakening the personal income of everyday people. I think currency war is going to hurt the everyday people a lot more in the end. I know China knows this, and this is why we’re seeing China is gradually moving away from accumulating more treasury bonds from the United States. Nonetheless, by doing this China can push the United States into hyperinflation as the dollars cannot find a home abroad. More dollars will rush back to the United States, pushing the inflation to the unstoppable rate. If this to happen, the United States economy will crumble as the everyday folks will not be able to utilize the dollar for purchasing whatever at a hyperinflation exchange rate. Of course, the United States can reduce the inflation rate by buying up the treasury bonds herself and introduce higher interest rate, but this will make her already huge national debt harder to manage. As right now, according to usgovernmentdebt.us website, United States’ national debt is at $18,176,295,505,000. It’s a very hard situation for the United States to be in.
But can we really blame China? China is also wanting to balance her inflation at a sensible rate that can help induce her own economic strength! I don’t think there is an easy solution to the ever struggle between countries’ inflation import and export. I guess in the end, it’s the local economy strength that helps a country to weather the inflation storm. To fight insensible inflation rate, I guess a country needs to have strong employment and high personal income wages. In the end, I think professor Yasheng Huang is onto something here, because I agree with professor on the importance of higher wages for everyday people. Professor Yasheng Huang also emphasizes on the importance of building human capitals, but I guess you have to watch the video for the details as I’m going to end my blog post here.