The Future Is EVs!

Electric vehicles are hot at the moment because these cars are being promoted as futuristic rides. Most importantly, companies that are trying to build EVs — are trying to marry the most futuristic technologies into these EVs such as fully autonomous driving. In the United States, we got Tesla, but in China, there are hundreds (or probably more since I don’t know the exact number but I know there are a lot of them) of new EV makers compete for the same niche but eat away the traditional ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) car market. For Chinese EV makers, I’m particularly interested in Nio, Geely, and now Aiways.

As we all know the largest EV market in the whole wide world is in China. So, it’s natural for me to be very interested in the Chinese EV makers. Aiways is different than the other two EV makers I mentioned because Aiways isn’t yet a public corporation/company — and only a three-year-old (private) company. Yet, Aiways can already deliver Aiways U5 to the European market. This means Aiways is the first Chinese car company to deliver EV cars outside of China (homegrown) market. This makes me wish for Aiways to start an IPO (Initial Public Offering) soon so investors around the world can begin investing in Aiways’ adventure as a hot new EV maker.

I just sold all of my Nio position when Nio hit $9.26. Now, Nio is like around $12.88 at closing for the day. I guess I had sold Nio a bit too early. Anyhow, why did I sell all of my Nio position? Well, I read several news articles that had mentioned that the U.S. is trying to pass a bill that would target several Chinese companies that are being listed on the U.S. stock exchange. Since Nio has the support of China’s local government Hefei (capital of Anhui province), I fear that Nio could be one of those Chinese companies that would be targeted since it’s being listed on the U.S. stock exchange. This bill was passed by the Senate and is now in the process of getting ready to go through the House. If the House is going to pass this bill too, I think the chance is high for many Chinese companies to be targeted by this bill. This bill is the reason I’m not so hot for Nio.

What I’ve read so far on the web is that several big-name Chinese companies such as Alibaba are either already listing or going to list their shares on Hong Kong’s stock exchange because they are ready for the days that they could no longer list their stocks on the U.S. stock exchanges. I surmise that Nio might think about this too but I have no insight on if Nio would do this or not. In reality, I got no info on what Nio would do as I’m just another investor who got his info on Nio through the Internet.

I have bought some shares of Geely on Hong Kong’s stock exchange through a U.S. stockbroker. I’m interested in Geely because this company is also trying to build awesome EVs. Geely also owns Volvo, a 10% share of Daimler (if I remember correctly), Lynk & Co, PROTON, and Lotus. I think Volvo is a very good brand, and Geely is doing an awesome job in upkeeping the brand’s good name. I also like Lotus since I love its new supercar Evija (2000hp).

Geely is also well known for making affordable cars for China’s local consumers. If I’m not wrong I think Geely delivered around 2.1 million cars in 2019. This means Geely is no joke! Latest but very well received compact SUV from Geely is Coolray.

Geely is also supporting Volvo’s Polestar to come out with their own EVs. I’m interested in Polestar Precept.

In conclusion, I’m interested in investing in China’s car market because I think China’s huge population of 1.4 billion people and counting is also interested in buying Chinese cars. Furthermore, Chinese car companies will venture out of their homegrown market and start selling cars in Europe and elsewhere in the world. As a small investor, I love to look for more ways to generate income, and so investing in Chinese automakers is a no brainer for me. I think EV automakers will be able to eat away a huge chunk of traditional (ICE) automakers’ market share. I think the future in terms of cars is EVs and not of ICE types of cars. Naturally, I’m interested in investing in EV automakers.

Disclaimer: I had bought shares of Nio but sold them. I’m currently owning some shares of Geely (Hong Kong) through a U.S. broker. Naturally, I’m biased toward Nio and Geely in a positive manner. This means I love to see these companies do well in developing futuristic cars and selling new cars. I do not give out stock advice. This blog post is all about my opinions on what I think of what stocks I like to invest or have invested in. So, please do your homework before investing in anything and do not take my opinions as stock advice and risk losing real money.

Nio’s Battery Swap Technology Is One Great Way In Producing More Jobs

I think Nio’s battery swap technology is one great way to produce jobs. For those who don’t know what is Nio — Nio is a company that is currently specializing in producing luxury electric vehicles (EVs) for Chinese consumers in China’s mainland only. Although Nio is only producing EVs for Chinese consumers, Nio so far had only listed its stock in the United States (surprisingly not yet in China). People like to compare Nio with Tesla and thinking that Nio is a Chinese Tesla, but I think Nio is uniquely different than Tesla besides the point that both of them are producing luxury EVs. Vaguely summing my gist, besides producing EVs, Nio is trying to promoting a lifestyle which caters to Chinese consumers in which Nio knows best — this means besides selling luxurious EVs, Nio is probably trying to provide other luxurious venues that complimentary with Nio EVs. Tesla is just concentrating on producing awesome EVs.

Back to the main point in which I had raised in the first paragraph. I think Nio’s battery swap technology is great for producing more jobs! I imagine that it would require more jobs to produce even more EV batteries for the expansion of battery swap stations. As battery technology improves, Nio has to scale up newer types of EV battery output to fill up each battery swap station — this means even more jobs. As consumers see that their EV isn’t stuck with just one old battery, they can feel confident in getting out to buy an EV since they know their Nio will always be able to swap an improved battery into their EV as each time they go to a battery swap station. As Nio set the standard for battery swap station and battery swap technology, a newer chain of supply for battery swap technology would spring up which creates even more jobs. Each presence of a Nio battery swap station is like a permanent advertisement that drivers would see on the road, and so this could boost Nio’s image in long term — this could allow Nio to grow and prosper which creates even more jobs. I mean I could go on and on…

Disclaimer: I do invest a little bit of my money in Nio. Thus, I do have a favorable outlook (bias) when writing on Nio. Nonetheless, I believe Nio is a great EV automaker in the making, and this is why I have invested some of my money into Nio’s stock.

My little dance with Luckin Coffee Inc Stock.

I was using an app to buy partial shares of Luckin Coffee Inc. (LK), and before I could heavily invest into LK the news broke out that there was a financial fraud report occurred for awhile while the chairman of the company was encouraging such a behavior — nonetheless, the whole incident pushed the stock price of LK way down. Luckily, I bought only around $300 worth of shares of the company since I was testing the water before I would see if I want to heavily go into LK — the loss wasn’t big at all and since then I didn’t even take a look at how much I had lost with the app I bought the partial shares of LK with.

Fast forward today, LK share price jumps 21% since I last checked, and all because there is a rumor that China’s Yum brand (if I remembered correctly) is intending to purchase LK’s China assets. I don’t know what are these assets, and now I’m curious. Whether this rumor is true or not, LK share price is now way higher than since their last drop. Last Friday they were at $1.41 per share, but today LK share price is closing at $2.59 per share.

Investors who are investing in LK are probably now worrying about LK is going to be delisted too since the news last broke that LK’s stock exchange had notified them about their decision of going to delist LK. Furthermore, the United States is trying to pass the law in which to delist all Chinese companies that do not report transparently to the United States’ whatever authorities (I think it’s SEC but I could be wrong). LK could be one of these companies that will get delist from the U.S. stock exchanges.

Personal opinion: I think I’m more confident with LK now since they fired their CEO/Chairman or whoever that got the most saying and was running the company fraudulently. Still, I won’t buy any more shares from LK since the delisting possibility is still there for LK. I also see LK won’t file bankruptcy and still be OK if they don’t sell any asset to Yum or whichever corporation (else) because LK is quite popular in China. Furthermore, LK got a lot of locations that they can easily raise the coffee price per cup just a bit and will make money like a bandit.

I won’t invest any more money into LK share unless LK got delisted from the U.S. and then relist elsewhere. Only when LK relist elsewhere that I could have more confidence in my decision in giving LK another chance. Perhaps then, I might heavily invest in LK, but obviously, I will wait and see how all of this will turn out for LK before I’ll try to do anything rash on LK. This means, even when LK relists elsewhere, I’ll wait a bit before I go strong on LK.

In The Face of Fraud Allegation Against GE by Harry Markopolos, Is It OK to Short GE’s Stock?

Harry Markopolos came out with a damning report which suggests there are some irregularities with GE’s accounting that have led him to believe GE is cooking the book. I haven’t read his report and so I don’t know the details, but this news has made many rounds in the mainstream media. Since the news broke, GE’s share price has dropped a bit too. As I’m writing this, GE’s share price is now $7.97 a share. Short interest in GE’s stock is climbing too.

The big question is what is going on with GE that has led a famous fraud investigator Harry Markopolos to stake his reputation on a report that alleges GE is a fraud? Even if GE is cooking the book, do you want to be brave and short GE’s stock? According to Statista.com, GE has employed about 283,000 people worldwide from 2005 to 2018. I don’t know how many employees GE is currently employed though. With so many employees are being employed by GE, will the government dare to throw GE under the bus even if the allegation may come true?

Whether the market is up or down, I think traders don’t care because they can make money either way. They can buy into the bull and they can also short into the bear. With the current trade war atmosphere that is going on between the U.S. and China, the market is having a seizure. It behaves erratically. It could spike 300 points in a day or it could also plunge into the abyss such as down 700 points in a day for the Dow. In this current atmosphere, I can see the temptation for shorting GE stock since Harry Markopolos’ report came out. Nonetheless, in this atmosphere, I could also see GE has a chance to weather the storm unless GE is unable to meet its financial obligations on all fronts.

GE is a veteran when it comes to weathering the storm since it’s a 127 years old company. Nonetheless, nothing could last forever, and so GE could be on its last leg. You never know, right? As I mentioned GE is employing a lot of people, and so I’m wondering even though Harry Markopolos may be right about GE is cooking the book — GE could very well be cruising along just fine throughout this storm since it’s a big company and may have the means to connect to the government and the right people to calm down the storm in coming days. When a big company like GE goes bankrupt, I could imagine a lot of people will lose jobs. This could negatively affect the company’s host country in a very big way!

As of writing this, I have not shorted GE’s stock. I’m thinking about shorting GE’s stock but fearing that Harry Markopolos’ report won’t affect GE’s stock price that much. Harry Markopolos said it’s impossible to make sense of GE’s balance sheet, and so I don’t know how much sense for one to go to take a deep look at GE’s balance sheet. Harry Markopolos is famous because he was very early in condemning Bernie Madoff for being a fraudster and he was proven to be very accurate. This man now stakes his reputation on GE is cooking the book, and he compares GE with Enron’s scandal. I think when there is smoke, there may be a fire. It’s just that how brave can you be when there is an opportunity which just appears right in front of you, right?

Can Lyft Be A Good Investment?

Lyft has filed S-1 for IPO on March 18th of this year (2019). Since Lyft isn’t yet a public company, we can’t really know the true numbers of Lyft’s finance. Nevertheless, leaked information tells us that although Lyft revenues are increasing tremendously it is also losing a lot of money on operational and R&D costs. Leaked information may not be accurate at all, but if the information is accurate Lyft may have to struggle a lot before it can become a profitable company.

According to the information we have Lyft is operating at a loss of $911 million net loss in 2018. Net loss is very important because a net loss tells us that Lyft isn’t a profitable company yet. It seems Lyft’s revenues are not able to cover the operating and R&D costs. The general definition of a net loss is that a total of expenses is bigger than a total of revenues.

Nevertheless, Lyft seems to boost its revenues very fast! In 2016, Lyft’s revenues were totaled at $343 million, but if the information is correct in 2018 Lyft’s revenues are totaled at $2.2 billion. If one looks at this closer, it seems Lyft has a chance of making it if the revenues are going to continue to go through this positive, exploding trajectory for some time to come.

Lyft is considering to invest more in R&D in regards to rolling out a self-driving fleet. If Lyft can get behind a self-driving fleet enormously and get the technology to work for real, then I think Lyft has a big chance to cut costs tremendously. If revenues continue to pick up, eating away Uber’s market share, and cut costing measures are going to be effective — Lyft could very well become a profitable company.

Lyft and Uber are competing for the same market, and both of these companies are driving Taxis out of business. Since Lyft and Uber are able to do this to Taxis, we can tell that companies like Amazon, Google, and even the car rentals and car dealerships themselves could get into the same act as Lyft and Uber when self-driving becomes a reality. This could be a very crowded market, and if my intuition is accurate it could mean Lyft and Uber may have a very tough market to operate in as time goes on. So the profits/revenues Lyft is having now could very well dwindle in the future!

Self-driving will change how people commute in the future. Car dealerships can jump into the act of allowing people to hail for self-driving cars. Perhaps, people of the future will not buy cars as much since they can just hail for a self-driving car? Google and other big tech companies can also create apps to allow the sharing of self-driving cars like how we have bike-sharing now. This could mean companies like Google don’t have to own a fleet of self-driving cars to be in the business of self-driving car-hailing. It’s like people to people self-dealing business but using a futuristic app of a huge tech giant where the tech giant gets to keep a small portion of the profit.

In summary and in truth, I’m not very sure if Lyft could be a good investment or not. Leaked info tells us that the company got a good chance of becoming profitable since the revenues keep on exploding to the positive territory — but the company has to be able to keep the operating and R&D costs down eventually! Nevertheless, the market which Lyft is operating in is possibly getting very crowded because of the self-driving car technology. If by the time the market gets so crowded and yet Lyft isn’t becoming profitable, then Lyft could find itself in a world of hurt! Personally, if I ever want to invest in Lyft, I won’t make it as one of my long term investments! If I ever invest in Lyft, I may have to watch out for the actions of other companies in the car-hailing market very closely. I may also have to watch out for new players that could enter the car-hailing market because new players could dilute the profitability of car-hailing market.

What Is The Future Market?

Don’t you hate to hear the future market this and that when you read or listen to the news?  Well, if you understand what future market is, you probably don’t mind hearing news on it.  Some people though, they may not know what the heck is the future market.  Thus, future market seems like a big mystery that will forever be a mystery into the future for these people.  Nonetheless, if you are one of those people who wants to understand what the future market is, then just check out the video right after the break.  In short though, future market is gambling, because you are betting on a contract price that represents for whatever it is in the market.