As Long Humans Won’t Go Insane, M.A.D. Still Matters For Some Time To Come

I’m a keyboard warrior, and here is my theory on what if U.S.A. and China would go to war against each other.  I’m not an expert in military weaponries and technologies, and so I’m not even going to try to be specific in details.  Read on to see what I got in mind.

Many people would think China would go to war with Philippines and Japan before they would attack U.S.A., and I think this is unlikely.  Only if Philippines and Japan provoke China in unbearable way, then China would attack these two countries.  Nonetheless, if I’m in charge of China, I would not think Philippines and Japan would dare to provoke and attack China first.  Thusly, I would only draw out secondary defensive plans, with care though, to address the what if Philippines and Japan attack China.  The primary plan which to address the priority would be going to war against U.S.A., because — at this point in human timeline — U.S.A. is the only foe in the world that would dare to truly challenge China right in the open, conventional or not.

Of course, in the between of everything, I don’t think China would be careless about little details, and so China would probably draw out plans to address diplomatic conundrums just so China could have an edge in world diplomacy.  Furthermore, China would want to make sure she knows who would side with U.S.A. when war truly breaks out between U.S.A. and herself.  Meanwhile, China is trying to scare Vietnam and her neighbors into submission, because this way China would get an idea of who will be against her for sure when war breaks out between U.S.A. and herself.  Vietnam is going to be capitulated between China and United States.  Simply put, Vietnam knows China will forever be her neighbor through geography, but she can use U.S.A. to push back against China when things get too ugly.  Other asian neighbors will think twice in challenging China, and so China would know of this too.

Russia would love to see China and U.S.A. go to war, because Russia wants to see two tigers on a mountain killing each other as she waits for her turn to swoop down and destroy both when the time and means are on her side.  Although it seems as if Russia is suffering consequences of economic sanctions and the turmoil in Ukraine, but Russia got time on her side to just wait things out.  Meanwhile, Russia is cozying up with China to leverage against U.S.A. and Europe in terms of military, diplomacy, energy, and economy.  Moreover, Russia would throw oil into the fire to flame things up between U.S.A. and China.  Thus, we will see Russia and China will strike even more deals in weapons, military, economics, and whatnot.

Europe is facing economic turmoils in several parts of her region.  I think China, Russia, and United States are befriending Europe on the surface but taking advantages of her underneath the surface.  After all, who could let go a bargain/deal or a momentous advantage in whatever, right?  Thus, we will see China, Russia, and the United States to partly be helpful but also partly be very unhelpful toward European countries in general.  Nonetheless, it’s possible that there are several European countries that aren’t expendable for military strategical reasons, thus we would see China, Russia and the United States fight for European friendships in this specific situation.  What military strategic reasons?  Don’t ask me, because Europe is a big place too, and so it’s obvious that Europe will have a role to play if a war between China and United States breaks out.

U.S.A. is trying to have her economy recovers from the recent financial crisis in 2008.  The recovery in the United States is truly slow, and so the United States does have her hands tie behind her back.  As China increases her military expenditures, the United States compels to spend money on keeping her military edge even though her economy is still not recovering.  China got Russia to supply some military technologies, but China is probably spending untold amount of money in research and development to develop her own in-house military technologies that would give her an edge over her foes.  Obviously, United States faces a difficulty in scaring China nowadays, because China is way stronger in terms of military and economics.  Thus we have seen China becomes more assertive in pushing United States out of the Pacific.  This way, China is going to have her own Monroe doctrine in the 21st century.  Of course, if United States refuses to allow China to have her own Monroe doctrine, China would probably do whatever she can to push United States out of the Pacific regardless.

China also got a backup plan to make sure her country isn’t too relying on the Pacific for energy and whatnot.  This is why we are seeing China proposes the modern Silk Road development.  This means China is creating a land route for her energy and trades just so in case she can circumvent the United States’ possible actions in the Pacific.  For an example, the United States can use her carrier fleet to blockade China from doing her normal operations in the Pacific, and this would hamper China’s trades and energy imports.  The Silk Road is like one arrow shoots two birds at the same time.  On one hand the Silk Road will boost the regional economies and in longer term would also keep China’s economy strong, and on the other hand the Silk Road would allow China to develop a second route to circumvent the possible Pacific blockades from her foes.

I can go on, but I’m just a keyboard warrior, and so let me summarize things up.  I conclude that if the United States will not allow China to have her own Monroe doctrine, China would do just about anything to push the United States out of the Pacific regardless.  I don’t see how China would allow the United States to contain her as she soars higher and higher.  Meanwhile, the United States has her plate full, but she probably tries to contain China regardless.  This will lead to the faster development of China’s modern Silk Road.  Furthermore, we will see Russia and China team up even more closely.  In this way, China/Russia alliance will try to win even more friends.  With both powerful countries (i.e., China and Russia) together they are more convincing this way in winning friends.  Basically, China and Russia are trying hard to isolate the United States in all fronts before a real war would break out.  Of course, things won’t go as plan if the United States or China decide to back down for world peace.  Nonetheless, I don’t know if there is any will in either China or the United States for backing down.  Sure, we still got M.A.D. to prevent an all out war such as a new World War (i.e., WWIII), but humans are capable of going insane.

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World Powers Of Today Won’t Be Around When World War III Reshuffles World Players

I think we are living in a period in which is very similar to China’s Warring States period.  Of course, there are many things that will refute this point of view soundly.  For an example, we can say that this is the modern era with modern technologies of all sorts, weaponized or not, and so we should not go back too far into the past to figure out the future.  In respect to modernists and contemporary thinkers, I think they have an argument if they’re trying to make this case, but I don’t think they are 100% correct.  In a grander picture, China’s Warring States period reminds us how states were fighting for supremacy.  Once, there were many in the East, but once relatively modest Qin state became the supreme State of them all.  In today picture, we are seeing the same struggle in a larger scale of course, because we are talking about a possible World War III.

United States is trying to retain the global supremacy at a cost of spending greater sum of money for military and whatnot.  Russia is trying to stand up tall and strong again like it once was a super power.  China is re-emerging as a Middle Kingdom again.  Many other important region players such as Turkey, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and so forth are trying to carve out more world space for themselves by taking the advantages of the struggle between huge powers (e.g., United States, China, Russia).  If we look closer at this big picture, it seems the world is playing a similar rhyme to the one in China’s Warring States period.  In fact, this scary picture may also look like any other past period that got many world powers struggling for resources, territories, and cultural supremacy.

I’m sure there were ups and downs for a state that was trying to survive China’s Warring States period.  Thus, it is obvious that at the time, small state that should look harmless was able to dominate over the stronger ones.  Just like life, in natural state, things can go awfully weird and non-straight line.  This means, it’s possible for a harmless, small state of today to dominate the future, globally.  This means we should not think arrogantly that United States, China, and Russia would always be the dominant powers.  Furthermore, we can look back at World War II and see that this war had completely reshuffled many world players’ strengths at the time.  I think Britain was most noticeably shrunken and given way to the United States rise till now.  Although, I think the United States was risen for quite some time already before the WWII, but the rising pace was accelerated even faster and more intense as WWII played out.  Right after WWII, many European powers were drained out of resources, money, and whatnot, thus the United States and Russia became the two most dominant players that created the so called the Cold War.

I’m not a history buff, but I think even with my measly historical knowledge it’s enough for me to see that if World War III to occur, the world will once again see a reshuffle of world powers.  Perhaps, the so called the superpowers of today will no longer be the lead countries after the next world war.  This is why it’s rather sad to see so many online commenters who joked casually about the next world war as if they wished for the next big war to happen, according to their online comments under various online news articles.  Perhaps, Einstein would be dead wrong on the next world war, because it’s possible that cooler heads in the future might use nuclear weapons in limited way, preventing the nuclear winter here on earth.  Nonetheless, such an aftermath won’t look pretty either, because the depopulation of earth in such a scale won’t be easily recovered.  It’s sad to see that us humans dare to think about depopulation, because we fear of running out of resources and spaces.  Why don’t we be constructive instead and think up way to share available resources.   Even better, we can improve our technology to allow us humans to colonize outer space planets and moons so we can mine for even more resources.  Basically, there is untold and near unlimited amount of resources that are waiting for us to mine out in space, and yet here on earth we are killing each other for scraps.

Why am I writing this blog post now?  I’m seeing so many countries are preparing for the next big war.  Especially, the big boys like the United States, China, and Russia are spending even more money on their military.  Perhaps, I’m just paranoid about this, but I fear that countries with stronger military incline to push for war as they think that their military can win war.  Of course, it’s not wrong for a country to have a strong military in case she needs to defend herself in an unexpected war.  With that being said, I don’t think it’s right for a country with strong military to encourage illogical war.  Furthermore, we are no longer in a time period in which weapons can only kill hundreds, but we are in a time period in which our weapons can annihilate a city in one go.  In such a scenario, the aftermath could render a city unusable for decades to come and more.  I don’t think war is wise, because death and destruction do come only when nothing can be agreed upon.  We humans are built to think, and so we should let common sense runs wild!  We should not be like animals that may eat their own children.  Bringing the next big war to fruition may have the consequence that is no different than animals that eat their children.  Such cannibalistic behavior should only be reserved for Hollywood films and not for real life.  In my opinion, the next big war will definitely reshuffle the world powers of today!