How I envision A Future War Would Be

Here is how I imagine a scenario of a huge war between two powerful countries or two united opposing forces in the near future.  In my scenario, a near future will be almost unthinkable if essential something isn’t automated and fully capable of self-regulating through Artificial Intelligence.  If two opposing forces are all automated and regulated by AI capabilities — how much collateral damage would there be on human civilians?  Is it just too dumb to allow a human soldier to be fighting against a more capable AI mechanized counterpart?

I imagine that two opposing forces would launch an all-out war with all the weapons they have in their arsenals.  Such weapons could be fully mechanized automated machines to fully automated electronic spy drones and such.  I also imagine that these two opposing forces would prefer not to use human soldiers for the most parts of the war.  Human soldiers would probably be on standby to evacuate the human civilians if there won’t be enough mechanized units that are still available in doing such a job.

As the war intensifies, each force would pray that their technology and AI automated weapons could outdo the other until either the enemy’s units and weapons run low or their own units got annihilated.  Once such an intense process runs through its course, the victor would aim their robotic units onto the enemy’s human civilian and non-civilian forces.  The losing side got almost no option at this point!  Either be a hero to fight to the death or surrender unconditionally.

Of course, I leave out the possibility that a nuclear war could be provoked.  How come?  I imagine that if such a war between two opposing forces could break out — it means nuclear weapons would probably be canceled out of the equation or rendered less capable somehow.  Perhaps, if such a war occurs between such two forces, it means either both sides have already somehow disabled each other nuclear weapons or one of these two forces is suicidal.

In conclusion, human soldiers may not be very useful in the future unless they’re going to be used as human spies to infiltrate the enemy’s human networks.  For the most parts of a futuristic war, fully automated AI mechanized units would be used to subdue the enemy or enemies.  A futuristic war could break out between two most powerful forces means nuclear weapons are no longer in the strategic calculation because these weapons either got disabled somehow or someone is on a suicidal mission.

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Could AI Steal Jobs From Soldiers?

Isn’t it natural that soon Artificial Intelligence (AI) would steal jobs from soldiers?  We all know that AI had beaten best Chess and Go players at their games.  We also know that AI also had beaten best video gamers in video games.  This means the responsiveness and the intelligence parts of the AI could be used in war scenarios to outdo the human counterparts.

I won’t be surprised to see the future where many wars would deploy AI for automation of submarines, tanks, jets, missiles, and so much more.  The video right after the break suggests that China is developing fully automated submarines with AI capability to outdo foes’ submarines and surface ships in a war.

 

Inescapable World – Ticking Time Bomb Of Uncertanties

In chess, there are circumstances that you could force your enemy into a position of no escape, and of course, if the enemy seizes the opportunity first then you would be the one who could not escape the trap.  It could be your king which is the most important piece on the board to be forced into a position of retreating into a trap and cannot escape.  I think it’s the same for bigger picture as in a national circumstance.

When a country got too many friends to please, too many problems to be solved, too many places to keep the peace, then it’s a lot harder for such a country to be able to be nimble and flexible.  Without nimbleness and flexibility, stiffness could creep in and force a country into many weird positions that are unfavorable.  Too many unfavorable positions could push such a country into a subtle death trap which eventually envelopes into the inescapable trap!

Then again we could also argue that when a nation is a hermit, it’s easier for others to gang up on such a nation.  In today world, when there are so many powers that aspire to be more than what they’re yesterday, I think it’s a ticking timebomb of uncertainties.  Like if you do you’re damned and if you don’t you’re damned still.

For an example, let’s say a fictitious country named Carol is making a lot of friends, and she knows that she hates Bob, the hermit, a lot.  Bob though, he would love to inflict real damage on Carol, but he doesn’t have any friend to help him out in doing such a thing against Carol.  Friends of Carol got a friend who is the only reluctant, casual friend of Bob, and they know this friend, for some strange reasons, doesn’t want Carol and Bob to have any confrontation.  Let’s say Bob tried to tickle Carol in the most grotesque way, and Carol went on a rampage against Bob.  Friends of Carol suddenly didn’t want to have anything to do with the whole madness, because Bob got a friend that prevented others from involving with Carol and Bob.  But then this Bob’s mysterious friend suddenly teamed up with Bob to take Carol down.  Now, Carol’s friends got a problem, because they don’t know if they should side with Carol or Bob’s mysterious friend!

Let’s say Carol and Bob both thought that they would be able to outsmart the other, but perhaps one of them didn’t know that a string of scenarios that came before and after their ugly feud could turn one of them into a mouse that got trapped in a rat trap.  The inescapable trap is definitely easier to imagine for today’s geopolitical matter I think!  Why?  Too many countries got their own ambitions to worry about, and so they are making friends and enemies left and right all the time.  Just take a look at Syria and various parts of the Middle East and we could see that sometimes we couldn’t know who is a friend and who is an enemy anymore — of course, it’s also depending on which side you’re on too!

Sometimes though, I think sitting pretty and only making move when it’s prudent and safe would keep a nation safe for a long time to come in a world like ours today!  Why?  The one who sits out the longest would be the victorious one in the end!  I think it’s smart to save up energy and resources — while making gains in both energy and resources when you’re in a favorable position — for the right time!  Of course, if you’re being forced into an unfavorable position, then sitting out may not be possible in the end.  That would be unfortunate for sure.

Can the age of Automation Change How We Conduct Wars of Tomorrow?

Playing games like Total War: Attila got me thinking of strategies.  Obviously, keyboard commander here which is me got no real experience in this sort of things.  Still, I want to dig into this sort of things anyway.  So, I was thinking that since the Industrial Revolution, machines have allowed the world to be much smaller which has given way to faster communication, faster travel through hard to traverse arteries such as the vast ocean and so forth.  These monumental Industrial Revolution byproducts changed how the world conducted its wars, because before the Industrial Revolution wartime strategies had to account how much time it would take for something to be set up and executed.  Of course, in today world with advanced AI, Internet, Encryption, Quantum machines, and hypersonic missiles and so forth, we still have to account time as a necessary ingredient in wartime strategy.  So imagine how much more important it was for time to be an ingredient in wartime before the time of Industrial Revolution.  Nonetheless, I think we’re in the post-Industrial Revolution period now, because the age of Automation is upon us.

My question is, can the age of Automation change almost everything that represents the Industrial Revolution?  After all, we had witnessed how the age of Industrial Revolution changed things of the age before it, right?  In my opinion, I think the age of Automation will create and change things that will outdated if not all then most of the Industrial Revolution byproducts.  For an example, wartime strategies will have to be changed to fit with time in the age of Automation.

One thing for sure, in the age of Automation, time is an even more important ingredient than ever before, because everything will speed up so much faster.  Imagine the automation of Artificial Intelligence such as self-learning for machines that would speed up the intelligence of machines so these things can self-regulate and self-plan and self-execute directives according to common sense that the humans drill into these machines’ logic programs.  Well, I think since AlphaGo, self-learning AI has already actually happened.  In my opinion, self-learning AI may speed things up so much faster that may make human decisions in wartime seem to be outdated as if we’re comparing today supercomputer with the supercomputer of the 1970s.  Even better, we should use the analogy of quantum computing versus supercomputing of the 1970s.

As we achieve hypersonic technology to speed up the deliverance of weapons and travel modes, self-learning AI will be able to automate things at much faster pace than ever before physically.  Of course, this would force humans to have less time to plan than ever before when changes occur in wartime.  Unless us humans could predict the future, us humans may use self-learning AI to pre-plan possible scenarios of wartime changes to allow self-learning AI to be even faster in execution during a war.

Furthermore, self-learning AI could allow the automation of swarming tech to advance further.  Immagine a swarming of missiles that is capable of allowing each missile to be smart and carrying its own decoys.  The idea of blocking out the sun with swarming of smart missiles and decoys and at the same time preventing the negative chain reaction among the missiles could be very interesting indeed.  What could be automated in the air could also be automated in the sea, and so we could expect more of the same smart machines that would be self-driven to attack targets using the sea as the cover and a travel medium.

Weapons and AI could be categorized as the ingredients for tactical operations, but if one thinks bigger then one could see the accumulation of tactical events would paint a picture of strategy.  Over time, automation would replace the ways that we’re using to conduct a war in wartime.

It is normal for us to belittle continental powers of the past when they disregarded naval power even though some of these continental powers were faced with vast ocean fronts.  But we have to know that before the Industrial Revolution age the ocean was regarded as a natural barrier.  Some historic continental powers took such idea into comfort till disasters struck them down for good.

Some historic naval powers were overconfident with their naval strength and didn’t develop their land forces, allowing their only strength to be taken out by their smarten-up adversaries.  If I’m not wrong, the Phoenicians were a naval superpower but the Romans were not.  Of course, the Romans turned the tide against the Phoenicians when the Romans figured out how to build similar ships to the Phoenicians’ ones.  I think the Romans caught a sunken Phoenician ship on its shore and managed to reverse-engineer it to make copies.  Afterward, the Phoenicians were history.

In today world, I don’t think countries that border ocean would dare to favor land forces over naval forces or vice versa.  Why?  Natural barriers are no longer a big deal nowadays.  Nowadays we got technology that could go undersea, on the sea, on the land, over the land, invisibly in the air, and into space — think you can take any comfort in any natural barrier?  We could be doing all of these things in hypersonic speed in the very near future.  So I think it’s foolishly for any country to rely on outdated strategies of the past ages when such a country has to confront with possible adversaries in the age of Automation.

A country such as China is not only thinking about building up a modern naval force to protect the maritime silk road, but this country is also building up channels on land to tap into all possible solutions and scenarios.  Gone the day of Zheng He’s downfall when a new Chinese emperor thought maritime power was useless because he took the comfort of a natural barrier.  Could we afford to make the same mistakes today by relying on natural barriers and other misguided comforts?  I don’t think it’s wise to take any comfort in the age of Automation because I think even self-learning AI could be hacked into.  I’m pretty confident that wartime strategies for tomorrow will be way different than the past.

 

We Should Heed Chinese Minister of Foreign Affair’s, Wang Yi, Call For Diplomacy In Regarding To Tension Between the United States and North Korea

A rumor has that China has moved around 150,000 troops to the border of North Korea.  Meanwhile, a Chinese minister of foreign affair, Wang Yi, has warned both the United Sates and North Korea to not start a war on Korean Peninsula, and he also said all sides will lose if this to occur.  Wang Yi is one of those top 7, if I’m not wrong, people who are directly taking orders right underneath Chinese president Xi Jin ping.  His words are to be taken seriously, and so it’s going to be foolish to believe that China isn’t going to protect North Korea from an attack.  Lately, online and offline news have surmised that China would help the United States to take out North Korea, but I think these news are too optimistic.  I believe that China would use North Korea as a proxy war to drag the United States in once the North Korea war gets going.

United States’ arm forces are spreading thin throughout the world.  Russia is tempting to expand further West while China is going to expand further in South and East China Seas.  A war with North Korea will be expensive for the United States, because it won’t be a quick war unless the United States uses nuclear weapons.  Nonetheless, once a nuclear missile from the West flies toward the East, Russia and China would quick to release theirs toward the West, because they won’t trust the United States’ true targets.  This means a nuclear war could happen if a nuke starts to fly off in any direction.  Invading North Korea through ground forces requires the United States to persuade ally countries to go along, and the war will be very expensive.  Furthermore, if not careful, North Korea war this time could be a repeat of Viet Nam war in which the North would eventually swallow the South.

The United States still has Afghanistan, Syria, and several other places to be worried about, and so adding North Korea to the plate in a time in which the United States is still trying to fix her economy is rather worrisome.  Although China isn’t favoring the North Korea position in regarding North Korea’s nuclear development, but China hates to see the South swallows the North even more.  This means China would aid North Korea once again once the war starts.  In the long run, I think China is going to use the United States to push North Korea to abandon nuclear development and nuclear weapons altogether in exchange for China’s protection.  If I’m not wrong, I think China’s position is very clear, because China is strategically regarding North Korea as a buffer between the United States and South Korea.  If I’m not wrong, a war with North Korea in our time will pull China into a war against the United States like it had happened in the 1950s (Korean War).

South Korea should be very worried, because once missiles start flying, North Korea will pour down South and try to repeat the Korean War.  Basically, North Korea is a very poor country, and so it got nothing to lose.  South Korea is a very rich country, and so it got everything to protect.  This time with modern weapons, things can be so much worse.  Chinese minister of foreign affair, Wang Yi, in the video right after the break warns both the United States and North Korea in not starting a war on Korean Peninsula.

Why The United States Fears Russia More Than China?

As president-elect Donald Trump may prepare to make peace with Russia, other forces within the United States are clearly against this adventure.  Since president-elect Trump has yet to take office, and so us normal folks would not know what will be the concrete relationship between United States and Russia.  If Russia will not truly warm up to the idea of making lasting peace with the United States, we may see a more confrontational approach between these two powerful countries.

I think many powerful people in the United States fear that Russia may become too powerful again to the point in which Russia can once again expand into areas that were once Soviet Union’s territories.  If Russia decides to do such a thing in the near future, a real conflict between NATO and Russia could very well play out in real time.  NATO is being watchful of Russia, and so NATO’s troops are not too far from Russia’s border.

United States is also worrying about China’s military expansion.  Basically, the expansions of Russia and China at the same time could mean big trouble for the United States.  If NATO gets weaken, Russia would expand and allow China to be more aggressive in South and East China Seas.

Since Russia can never rely on the United States’ friendship, Russia tends to move closer to China for obvious benefits such as economic and military ties.  Furthermore, Russia would not want to make China angry as China is right across Russia border.  I don’t think Putin wants to see China’s soldiers in millions pouring across the China/Russia’s border.  China and Russia are both nuclear armed countries, and so the notion of allowing the conflict to get to the point of confrontation is definitely not very wise.

Meanwhile, president-elect Donald Trump may want to make nice with Russia in hoping that Russia could play nicer in the near future.  This way NATO won’t have to be so active, and president-elect Donald Trump could have more freedom to deal with China alone.  Nonetheless, Europe would be very worried since Russia’s president Putin could be very unpredictable.  Nobody would know if Russia would never do another Georgia invasion into a NATO’s member country.  If president-elect Donald Trump isn’t careful enough, NATO’s member countries could take matter into their own hands and create the situation much worse.

If Russia is going to have a real conflict with NATO, the United States must come to the defense of NATO’s member countries.  This means the United States could not play nice with Russia.  Meanwhile, China is looking to push the United States out of the China Seas.  Furthermore, Russia is not feeling easy as NATO’s forces are too close to Russia’s border.  Basically, the United States if not treads carefully could face two fronts stemming from Russia and China.  If this to happen, the United States will have a tougher time to plan and carry out defensive measures against such confrontations.

Check out the fictional event in the video right after the break where Russia and NATO could face off in a real confrontation scenario.  Although the video is fiction, I have to warn you that it’s very realistic.  Watching this video may give you a sense of what might happen if Russia and NATO begin to fight each other.