We Should Heed Chinese Minister of Foreign Affair’s, Wang Yi, Call For Diplomacy In Regarding To Tension Between the United States and North Korea

A rumor has that China has moved around 150,000 troops to the border of North Korea.  Meanwhile, a Chinese minister of foreign affair, Wang Yi, has warned both the United Sates and North Korea to not start a war on Korean Peninsula, and he also said all sides will lose if this to occur.  Wang Yi is one of those top 7, if I’m not wrong, people who are directly taking orders right underneath Chinese president Xi Jin ping.  His words are to be taken seriously, and so it’s going to be foolish to believe that China isn’t going to protect North Korea from an attack.  Lately, online and offline news have surmised that China would help the United States to take out North Korea, but I think these news are too optimistic.  I believe that China would use North Korea as a proxy war to drag the United States in once the North Korea war gets going.

United States’ arm forces are spreading thin throughout the world.  Russia is tempting to expand further West while China is going to expand further in South and East China Seas.  A war with North Korea will be expensive for the United States, because it won’t be a quick war unless the United States uses nuclear weapons.  Nonetheless, once a nuclear missile from the West flies toward the East, Russia and China would quick to release theirs toward the West, because they won’t trust the United States’ true targets.  This means a nuclear war could happen if a nuke starts to fly off in any direction.  Invading North Korea through ground forces requires the United States to persuade ally countries to go along, and the war will be very expensive.  Furthermore, if not careful, North Korea war this time could be a repeat of Viet Nam war in which the North would eventually swallow the South.

The United States still has Afghanistan, Syria, and several other places to be worried about, and so adding North Korea to the plate in a time in which the United States is still trying to fix her economy is rather worrisome.  Although China isn’t favoring the North Korea position in regarding North Korea’s nuclear development, but China hates to see the South swallows the North even more.  This means China would aid North Korea once again once the war starts.  In the long run, I think China is going to use the United States to push North Korea to abandon nuclear development and nuclear weapons altogether in exchange for China’s protection.  If I’m not wrong, I think China’s position is very clear, because China is strategically regarding North Korea as a buffer between the United States and South Korea.  If I’m not wrong, a war with North Korea in our time will pull China into a war against the United States like it had happened in the 1950s (Korean War).

South Korea should be very worried, because once missiles start flying, North Korea will pour down South and try to repeat the Korean War.  Basically, North Korea is a very poor country, and so it got nothing to lose.  South Korea is a very rich country, and so it got everything to protect.  This time with modern weapons, things can be so much worse.  Chinese minister of foreign affair, Wang Yi, in the video right after the break warns both the United States and North Korea in not starting a war on Korean Peninsula.

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Why The United States Fears Russia More Than China?

As president-elect Donald Trump may prepare to make peace with Russia, other forces within the United States are clearly against this adventure.  Since president-elect Trump has yet to take office, and so us normal folks would not know what will be the concrete relationship between United States and Russia.  If Russia will not truly warm up to the idea of making lasting peace with the United States, we may see a more confrontational approach between these two powerful countries.

I think many powerful people in the United States fear that Russia may become too powerful again to the point in which Russia can once again expand into areas that were once Soviet Union’s territories.  If Russia decides to do such a thing in the near future, a real conflict between NATO and Russia could very well play out in real time.  NATO is being watchful of Russia, and so NATO’s troops are not too far from Russia’s border.

United States is also worrying about China’s military expansion.  Basically, the expansions of Russia and China at the same time could mean big trouble for the United States.  If NATO gets weaken, Russia would expand and allow China to be more aggressive in South and East China Seas.

Since Russia can never rely on the United States’ friendship, Russia tends to move closer to China for obvious benefits such as economic and military ties.  Furthermore, Russia would not want to make China angry as China is right across Russia border.  I don’t think Putin wants to see China’s soldiers in millions pouring across the China/Russia’s border.  China and Russia are both nuclear armed countries, and so the notion of allowing the conflict to get to the point of confrontation is definitely not very wise.

Meanwhile, president-elect Donald Trump may want to make nice with Russia in hoping that Russia could play nicer in the near future.  This way NATO won’t have to be so active, and president-elect Donald Trump could have more freedom to deal with China alone.  Nonetheless, Europe would be very worried since Russia’s president Putin could be very unpredictable.  Nobody would know if Russia would never do another Georgia invasion into a NATO’s member country.  If president-elect Donald Trump isn’t careful enough, NATO’s member countries could take matter into their own hands and create the situation much worse.

If Russia is going to have a real conflict with NATO, the United States must come to the defense of NATO’s member countries.  This means the United States could not play nice with Russia.  Meanwhile, China is looking to push the United States out of the China Seas.  Furthermore, Russia is not feeling easy as NATO’s forces are too close to Russia’s border.  Basically, the United States if not treads carefully could face two fronts stemming from Russia and China.  If this to happen, the United States will have a tougher time to plan and carry out defensive measures against such confrontations.

Check out the fictional event in the video right after the break where Russia and NATO could face off in a real confrontation scenario.  Although the video is fiction, I have to warn you that it’s very realistic.  Watching this video may give you a sense of what might happen if Russia and NATO begin to fight each other.

Can Offshore Balancing Be More Realistic For The United States’ Foreign Relations?

Although the United States’ old grand strategy was almost forgotten since the fallen of the Soviet Union, but after so many unfinished businesses around the world such as in Afghanistan and elsewhere the United States may have to revisit an old grand strategy which is known as offshore balancing.  According to Stephen Walt in the video right after the break, he suggests that the United States would be better off in foreign relations in applying offshore balancing for foreign relation building.  Offshore balancing may save the United States from overspending in foreign policy matters, but offshore balancing isn’t discouraging in building healthy relations with foreign powers.  Perhaps, if offshore balancing is done right, the United States may have even more friends than enemies while building a stronger nation at home.  Anyhow, I guess no known strategy is invulnerable to everything, and so offshore balancing may not always be best for certain situations.  In my opinion, Stephen Walt does sound very convincing in his argument that the offshore balancing may help the United States navigates the evermore dangerous globe in a more efficient and healthier manner.

Besides South China Sea, United States Is Now Facing A China Which Just Joined Up With Bashar al-Assad’s Regime In Syria

An ocean away, the Atlantic that is, and so I kind of being ignorant to what is really going on in the Middle East.  Still, I’m surprised to see China is now sending military advisers to Syria so China can aid Bashar al-Assad in fighting against the rebels and other extremists.  Meanwhile, Russia is bombing the extremists (i.e., ISIS/ISIL) in Syria from Iran’s military airbase.  Putting these facts together, it’s now clear that China is joining in to help Russia, Iran, and Syria in fighting against the rebels and extremists that are trying to collapse Bashar al-Assad’s government.  Lately though, it seems that the ISIS/ISIL forces are being scattered and being stamped out of Syria, because Russia is still stepping up to drive these forces out of Syria.

Since China’s economy keeps on growing, it needs energy supplies such as oil from the Middle East to secure Chinese future, and so China is going against one of the creeds that China has always held dear most — which is not to interfere with internal matters of another country or region.  Furthermore, China is looking to realize the grand plan of connecting Europe and  everything in between to China through the One Belt One Road (or Silk Road) initiative/project.  With such a grand plan, China needs the Middle East to calm down much more to ensure the safety of the people, companies, and whatever that are involving in developing and realizing the grand Silk Road project.

Since China is now slowly forming a coalition with Russia and Iran, I wonder how Europe is going to react to this.  China is key in Russia’s plan, because China is a very big business partner of most countries in Europe.  The United States may have her plate full from now on, because Europe could decide to be less helpful to the United States since China is now joining in the Middle East’s mess.  If things keep on getting escalating, I think Europe would have less appetite in seeing business with China goes sour, because we’re talking about peace and prosperity in long term here.  Still, Europe could also decide to help the United States fight against China/Russia/Iran coalition, because Europe has a special relationship with the United States.

Whatever the case, it’s bad for the United States, because the United States is still supporting the rebels — who are trying to collapse the government of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.  Check out the video right after the break to see the news on China joined up with Bashar al-Assad’s regime to fight off ISIS/ISIL and the rebels.

Should China and the United States Go To War?

The United States stated she will sail her warships within China’s manmade island’s or islands’ 12 nautical mile, and China openly replied that it would not allow any country to violate its territory.  In coming days, if United States indeed will sail within China’s manmade islands’ 12 nautical mile and if China is indeed going to use force to stop the American warships from entering the area, we may have an uncontrollable situation in which it’s insane just to fathom about the possibility of a situation like this to occur in the first place.  The biggest question is what will happen after if China indeed sinks a ship or two that belong to the United States?  Will the United States go to war with China if such an aftermath would occur?  Who will push the red nuclear button first?  We cannot take China as Iraq, because China got so much more capabilities than Iraq could ever wish for.  China knows United States, although economically weaker by days and months, still has a very strong military and so facing the United States won’t be a walk in the park either.  It just happens that Intelligence Squared Debates program got a debate show in which it asks the debaters to actively debate on the question of “Are China and U.S. long term enemies?”  The video is right after the break.

The long term enemies part the video may get it wrong, because countries don’t look at each other as buddies but potential competitors or pawns or necessary evils or enemies.  It isn’t strange when I stated like that, because it’s true.  Basically, nobody knows how the United States and China will behave toward each other in a much longer term.  Nonetheless, at the present time, United States and China are clearly on the verge of starting a dangerous proposition in which neither country may want to back down, consequently leading to a global war.  If China and United States are at war, the war environment won’t be a vacuum space in which the participants are only China and the United States.  In fact, I believe that a war between these two giants will pull in all sorts of countries that choose sides.  Even a country wants to be neutral in such a scenario may not have a choice to do so, because geographical reason or whatever, one or both giants may want to push such a country into war anyway.

We can have a debate all we want on how long U.S. and China would be enemies, but if someone is crazy enough to think that it’s sensible to have China and United States go to war, we cannot rule out a situation in which nuclear weapons would fall off from the sky in both directions toward both countries.  By the way, Russia is China’s neighbor.  If Russia sees nuclear missiles from the United States heading toward the east, what do you think Russia will do?  If I’m a Russian leader, I would definitely think that the nuclear missiles are heading my way, and so I must reply in kind with my own nuclear missiles.  Meanwhile China too would be in panic and push the red nuclear button.  From my understanding, both China and Russia together have more nuclear weapons than the United States.  It’s not a situation I like to see for sure, because I don’t want to see my life and countless other people lives to be wasted away in seconds for power politics in geopolitical common sense.

In my opinion, geopolitical common sense is opposite from treating thy neighbor the way you want to be treated common sense, because geopolitical common sense is about not having to lose one’s position, power, and so on.  To put it bluntly, nobody wants to be a little guy, because being a king is always better.  A king can have his way, and a little guy will often have to swallow a hurtful pride.  Nonetheless, whenever we include nuclear weapons into the equation, it’s hard for a sane person to think it would be possible for United States and China to go to an all out war.  Perhaps, one side likes to think that such an all out war is insane, and so a controllable war would be possible.  One side may think that at some point, a situation got to a point that nuclear weapons may be used, they could negotiate deals to unwind down the war and nuclear weapons will not be used.  Unfortunately, in a war, I don’t think it’s that easy to control or wish a situation to occur the way we like it.  Thus, we may want to unwind the war down in a war in which nuclear weapons would be used, the enemy may not know our best intention and misread the intention somehow and nuclear weapons would be used anyway.

It’s scary to see the biggest boys on the block with nuclear weapons are about to strangle each other out.  Right after 9/11 of 2001 terrorist attack on World Trade Center’s twin towers in New York, time had become ever more dangerous.  It’s cliche to say that we are living in an interesting time, but I think cliche or not we are actually witnessing a time in which humanity is at risk of losing the sanity of it all.  What is even crazier?  It is that in a time in which I attended middle school, a time in which it was way before 9/11 of 2001, I had read something from a book in which a title I totally have now forgotten, and this something predicted the explosion of a major landmark in New York.  On 9/11 of 2001, I could not believe of what I’d witnessed on that day, and it reminded me a prediction I’d read in a book way back then.  How could a prediction be so true even though prediction is purely a fiction?  In my opinion, prediction is a fiction unless it becomes real.  Today, some people like to use bible prophecy which had been written eons ago to predict a war between China and the United States.  I want to say this, be careful of what you wish for!  A prediction may come true if we believe it and allow it to happen.

China’s Aircraft Carrier Entered Tartus To Support Russia and Iran In Syrian Force Building

Something big is happening under the surface, but we have no idea what is going on.  Basically, security-intelligence.org’s article “DEBKAfile Exclusive Report: A Chinese aircraft carrier docks at Tartus to support Russian-Iranian military buildup” suggests that China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning has docked at Syrian port Tartus to back the Russians up on building up forces in Syria for fighting against ISIS.  I’m not very well informed with the Middle East and Syria situations at all, but this news tells me that united force building of Russia, China, and Iran in this region prepares for something big.  Perhaps, fighting ISIS is only a piece of the puzzle, because ISIS isn’t strong enough to encourage China, Russia and Iran to combine forces and take actions in this region.  Without China in the picture, I think the overall picture of the Syrian conflict was murky but somewhat clearer than how it’s now.  Meanwhile, China is cooperating with the United States in boosting trades and agreeing on cyber security.  Nonetheless, geopolitically, China is helping out Russia and Iran in securing Bashar Assad’s power in Syria.