No one who is under the sun, a citizen of the United States or not, could ignore the United States’ presidential election of 2020 because it’s so polarized and contentious. Check out GZERO video right after the break on the discussion of what is going on while the presidential election (2020) is still underway.
I’m no strategic kind of person since I’m rather a straightforward chap. Nonetheless, I do have my own opinions in the matter of whatever could be happening in the next decades or so. I don’t think I’m prophetic, but I guess if you keep guessing, something ought to turn out just like the way you’ve had imagined. Thus, if the experts are correct on how China would want to invade Taiwan soon, then I think China will do it in a similar fashion to how the United States had done Iraq in 2003. A complete overwhelming show of force.
By showing an overwhelmed show of force in Iraq, the United States has made China eagerly to update and upgrade its military structure, tech strategy, and weapon knowhows. China would not want to be the next Iraq. So, it is logical for China to think like the United States if China has to invade Taiwan. I think China will try to overwhelm Taiwan in an invasion of Taiwan to the point that, perhaps, could shame the one that the United States had done in Iraq in 2003. Why? By overwhelming an enemy force rather easily, China sends a message to unfriendly countries that it’s not to be trifled with.
I think the invasion of Iraq by the United States and the fall of Saddam Hussein had pushed China to be even more cautious and paranoid of the United States. This event may have had pushed China into going all out in upgrading its military and related capabilities. Furthermore, China is now eager to advance in other tech industry sectors such as quantum computer/satellite and space techs. This way, China could use these advances during peacetime for economic purposes — but the dual usage of these capabilities will be a tremendous, helpful kind of force in wartime for China.
I have a feeling that even though the West is trying to decouple from China, with job loss increases during an ongoing pandemic, I don’t see how a country like the United States can bring jobs home since unemployment is going to be high still. By this, I feel that with more people are relying on the government to create jobs and whatnot, bring jobs home mean companies in the United States have to hire more and spend more to produce anything. Meanwhile, China is once again increasing the output of their manufacturing, albeit that wages are increasing in China, the living costs in China are still way cheaper than the West, and so I think their wages won’t be rising to a point that foreign companies want to shift their manufacturing bases away from China faster. After all, producing in China does save on the costs of shipping and exporting.
Producing at home means that local companies have to be able to produce things cheaper than their foreign imports. Usually, import stuff should be more expensive than locally made since there are import costs and shipping costs that would add on to the top of the costs of the goods that are being made elsewhere. Unfortunately, it’s also depending on how productive a local manufacturing base is and other variables such as how cheap are the local wages and whatnot. Furthermore, we also have to worry about how is the local economy is doing. To add salt to the already infected wound, the COVID 19 pandemic is still an ongoing thing. So, I don’t see how decoupling from China is easy at all.
When we are trying to decouple from China, we should be prepared for China’s backlash such as how China would ramp up their distaste for foreign products even though most of these products are being produced in China. For an instance, China could ramp up the investigation into foreign companies that are actively opened for business in China, and by doing this China could persuade its people to trust less on foreign imports. By doing this China could also support their local economy through local made, and so in the long run China would be less exposed to foreign imports. I also see that China is producing much more stuff for foreign countries than foreign countries produce stuff for them — in a way why would China import more stuff when they could make everything at home?
As the United States tries to ramp up the pace of decoupling with China, China could see itself ramp up the pace of relying less on foreign imports. Meanwhile, China could also make it a lot harder for foreign companies to operate in China. At home, Western companies are facing the uglier local economy, and so these companies may not be able to produce higher revenues from local markets. Now, through geopolitical conflicts between China and the United States, it would make a lot harder for Western companies to make profits in China. Of course, Asia is a big place, and so Western companies should be able to ramp up their marketing elsewhere! The question is can other places replace the loss of the Chinese market?
What do I think about foldable phones? I think foldable phones don’t matter! Foldable phones remind me of flip phones back in time, but now instead of flipping a phone in style, we can unfold a phone into a tablet. Since foldable phones are so expensive, I guess using the tablet and unfoldable phone I already have will be just fine!
Although foldable phones are not that important, the 5G technology that gets to debut on these foldable phones is really important! Since 5G allows communication over the air almost instantaneously, and so this could allow innovations in the Internet of Things sector to thrive big time.
One company right now is leading the pack in term of 5G is of course none other than the Chinese giant, Huawei. Right now, Huawei is getting a lot of heat from the United States. Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of the founder of Huawei, is being under house arrest in Canada in the behest of the United States’ extradition agreement with Canada. Furthermore, the United States is increasingly persuading other countries to not use Huawei’s 5G technology.
5G can be really useful for whatever purposes that demand faster wireless communication. I may not know what purposes would demand 5G the most, but I do know that 5G will be great for commercial purposes such as the Internet of Things devices. Furthermore, 5G will accelerate the use of driverless cars and other automated vehicles.
5G can allow driverless cars to see each other instantaneously and also communicate with smart roads and highways instantaneously. 4G technology is definitely too slow and less reliable than 5G when it comes to deploying the technology on a massive scale to allow crucial transit system to work in a smarter way. So I think 5G will definitely be a game changer in wireless communication.
Anyhow, I guess it’s going to be expensive to build a massive backbone system that could support the 5G wireless system. It seems though, this isn’t the problem for Huawei. Huawei seems to be able to deploy 5G network for various platforms in China already! For an example, a 5G network is now already up and running for Qingdao Port in Eastern China.
China is leading the way to deploy 5G network not only in China but across the world. Huawei is at the forefront of this 5G expansion from China. I’m not sure why the United States is really scared about how China is leading in 5G, but my guess is that whoever leads the 5G network deployment across the world gets to call the shot for making a standard for 5G chipsets and much more. This means big money and market cornering.
Since 5G technology will change how wireless communication permeates throughout the global economy, new and old markets could churn out a lot of new money for the global economy. For an example, driverless cars will become more reliable, encouraging people to spend more money on driverless cars. Dumb cars without the support of 5G technology might get left behind, collecting dust somewhere while driverless cars sell like hotcakes.
Can historical memories shape a future? In my opinion, historical memories could play a great role in shaping the direction of a future even though on the surface we may not see such things happen. For an example, the horrific revenge of the Soviet Union against Germany as Soviet Union troops entered Germany when the Nazi continuedly retreated as the WWII winded down. This pushed Germany to fight the Soviet Union harder and preferred to surrender to the allies.
The Soviet Union’s behavior right after WWII is a great example of why the Soviet Union lost the cold war according to Dr. Citino. If I remembered correctly he said something as such in the YouTube video above. I guess if he is right on this perspective of history, we have a lesson to learn here!
I guess the lesson of history in the context of this blog post is that a careless single victory in the present doesn’t mean much if it could cause long term pain in the future! For an example, we have multiple nuclear powers in the world as we speak, but if any one of them uses nuclear weapons carelessly, this could lead to a future that would not be very favorable for such a power.
I wonder, could Japan be closer to the United States and prevent China historic rise if the United States had won WWII against Japan without nuking Japan? In the video right after the break, Parag Khanna suggests that Japan’s heavied investments into China had contributed today stronger China!
Perhaps, I’m reading into things that simply aren’t there, but I have a feeling that Japan does want China to be quite strong to hedge against the United States. Perhaps, they fear the will of using nuclear weapons by the United States. I don’t see any reason for the United States to ever nuke Japan again. but I feel that Japan may have a long memory of it being nuked by the United States. Sure, it’s outrageous to think that Japan is unfaithful to the United States since it’s still a very close ally to the United States. Nonetheless, I’m sure there must be a thinking out there like this, and so we can’t just totally ignore the possibility!
In summary, I think a victor should not be as ruthless as Genghis Khan or the Soviet Union, because such a ruthless victor would not be able to win the respect of the surrendered power! On the surface, the surrendered power may acquiesce to the demands of the victor, but inside the surrendered power could have a feeling of long term ill will. I think today nuclear powers should not use their nuclear weapons carelessly no matter how precise and strategic their nuclear weapons could become because I think such powerful weapons could create unending hatred of one people or power to another!
I don’t like to get political and hopefully what I’m writing isn’t too political. I’m thinking that even if president Trump is really wanting to have a trade deal with China to avert the upcoming tariff deadline in March on the Chinese goods, China might not want to see a trade deal gets done even the United States concedes something great.
How come? Well, let pretend to put yourself in a Chinese shoe and think about this for a second. So, if you’re Chinese and you know that the Americans will up the tariff on your $200 billion goods in March from 10% to 25% if the trade deal between China and the United States won’t happen, and so the big question is should you concede to the United States in a big way in order for a trade deal to be happening and the tariff to go away? Well, I think if you’re smart you probably would want the United States to impose the 25% tariff on your $200 billion of goods.
I think China knows that the United States economy is not on a solid foundation otherwise the United States won’t have a government shutdown and such. Furthermore, inflation would go through the roof since the interest rates cannot be raised appropriately. To keep the interest rates low the United States has to continue to print more money. Normal people in the United States will continue to see rising inflation which would cost them dearly in acquiring daily things in local grocery stores and so on. A hamburger meal usually costs like $3 but now is like $7 to $8. So, if you’re the Chinese you would think that higher tariff on the $200 billion Chinese goods must be a great thing for China!
Meanwhile, China is weaning off the reliance on American consumers because of the hostility between the United States and China! This could push China to be more aggressive in finding new markets throughout the world such as in Africa, India, Asia, Europe, South America to replace the North American consumer base. Some other regions might see this as a good opportunity to negotiate with China to get a great deal so they could enter China’s huge growing middle-class consumer base. China may pretend to resist this but could end up agreeing to concede something to these players so they could diversify away from the American consumer base.
I think the long term picture is what China is sought after because China wants to better itself in the overall big picture. This means China doesn’t care if the United States is upping the tariff to 25% or even to 75% or to 100%. When the United States is upping the tariff on Chinese goods, the Americans have to pay more for daily things in their lives. This would put even more stress on the Americans and make the Americans go into debts even more. More Americans in debts could mean a weaker market overall for the United States in the long run. This means more Americans will have to be more prudent on what they will spend so they could have money to pay off their debts. This means the American market will soon see a big cut back from spending by the American consumers. Either this or the Americans who are already in too many debts won’t have money to spend anyway!
Meanwhile, China could just sit pretty and wait out to see another financial crisis that will hit North America. So, in a Chinese shoe, do you think you want to have a trade deal done with the United States? Meanwhile, president Trump may not even want a trade deal done with China since president Trump thinks that he will get more votes for the next presidential race if he goes anti-China even more. In summary, I don’t think by the end of February we will see a trade deal between China and the United States. So, if you’re on the side of wanting to see a trade deal done, you should hope that I’m wrong. So, if you’re on the side of not wanting to see a trade deal done between China and the United States, you would probably want that I’m right. In my opinion, a trade war between China and the United States is not a good thing for the long term economic health of the United States.