Weaker Dollar, Stronger Yuan May Hurt The United States And Help China In The Long Run!

I’m no expert in economic matters, but I just want to use my own personal logic to make sense of a few things that are currently happening.  People are seeing that the Dollar is weakening as we speak, and the Yuan is growing stronger as we speak.  Some people say weaker Dollar is a good thing because export will become more profitable.  Furthermore, when export becomes profitable, it also drives up the manufacturing sector at home.  That’s the theory for some people, but I feel that it’s way more complicated than this.

Since the United States isn’t a world manufacture hub — China is holding this title — the United States’ exports won’t matter as much unless the United States becomes the world manufacture hub.  Sure, with weaker Dollar, the United States’ exports will become more competitive than before.  The question is, will a little gain in competitiveness in exports spur the manufacturing sector at home?  Meanwhile, weaker Dollar will make the United States’ imports a lot more expensive.

I think the United States currently imports a lot more than exports.  The United States’ import is at $2.25 trillion and the export is at $1.45 trillion for the year of 2016, according to Wikipedia.  If the United States’ exports continue to slack even with the weak Dollar and the imports continue to grow, the United States could face an even stronger trade deficit.  For an example, manufacturer companies in the United States may have to import more expensive materials from the outside to manufacture products at home for selling across the world and at home.  This may not make the products at home cheaper for homegrown consumers.  Furthermore, this will increase the trade deficit in manufacturing sector if not enough products within the United States get to export to balance out the import costs.

Weak Dollar will increase less buying power for the Americans who go abroad for vacation, business, and so forth.  Weak Dollar can make purchases of products from foreign companies through online websites or offline imports more expensive for the American consumers.  For an example, I could be buying a music plugin from an online website which belongs to a French company, and with a weak Dollar, I could be paying more for this software.

I guess good things and bad things do exist even when the Dollar is weak or strong.  Nonetheless, the most interesting question is can the United States fare better when the Dollar is weaker or stronger.  In my opinion, weaker Dollar can help spur export a bit, but if the United States’ exports don’t carry the whole United States’ overall, long-term economy, then the weaker Dollar will be a very bad thing!

What about China?  If the United States enters a trade war against China, China can increase import tariff costs for the products from the United States.  This could hurt the United States’ export market because weaker Dollar would be neutralized by this move from China.  Furthermore, China can also buy up weak Dollar on the cheap to make Yuan stronger if this would serve China’s agenda.  Of course, stronger Yuan for China could make China’s exports look expensive.  Still, from what I’ve heard, China is trying to spur demands at home to create a bigger home consumer market so China won’t be relying on too much from the export market.  If this is the case, then cheap Dollar would be beneficial for China in a big way!

Stronger Yuan would allow Chinese who are going abroad to get more bang for the buck.  Meanwhile, Chinese imports would become cheaper, and so China won’t have to spend so much money to import stuff.  As China’s export market isn’t doing so bad and the imports get cheaper, stronger Yuan allows China to continue to reform her consumption market.  Foreign companies would love to enter China’s bigger homegrown consumption market because China has 1.4 billion headcounts and growing.  As China becomes an ever more important factor for foreign companies due to the size of Chinese population and market, China can begin to dictate tastes, styles, fashions, and so forth worldwide.  Chinese culture will become ever more influential if Chinese market becomes the most important market in the world.

With a weaker Dollar and stronger Yuan, entering a trade war against China might be very bad for the United States!  China can sanction the United States’ companies, entities, and so much more to crash the United States economy.  Of course, a trade war would be bad for China too, because the United States’ imports from China do matter to China a lot.  Nonetheless, as China doesn’t rely on the export market so much, a trade war between the United States and China won’t deter Chinese economic reform plan.  After all, China wants to grow the homegrown consumption market!  While growing a homegrown consumption market to rely less on the export market, China relies on the cheaper import market to balance out the reduction of Chinese exports.  Weaker Dollar and stronger Yuan will allow China to transit from the export market to a service market, also to move to a higher value-added export market — all in all – making this transition in a smoother fashion.

In conclusion, I think China can make the best out of either weaker or stronger Dollar, and the United States — as long as the country stays less competitive — won’t be able to have the upper hand if a trade war occurs between China and the United States.  Meanwhile, China can use stronger Yuan to buy cheap debts from United States’ weak Dollar to prop up China Yuan’s strength.  This, in turn, will actually help China transits from a manufacturing to a service economy.  As the low value-added market goes away in China, China has to accelerate the reform of the manufacturing sector at home so Chinese future export market will be more about high value-added products.  Anyhow, if the United States isn’t going to be able to use the opportunity of a weaker Dollar to reform her economy somehow to make the United States’ economy more competitive against rivals such as China, in the long run other rivals will use the weaker Dollar as the opportunity to make their own economies a lot stronger.

Consciousness Is Only A Level Of Abstraction

I’m sure many scientists, priests, monks, religious leaders, and other humans out there have been searching for an answer to whether a computer can be programmed in such a way that consciousness can be installed onto a machine or not, and so far I bet we all have confused ourselves with more scientific terms that we had come up with in an effort of trying to address this very question.  Joining the fun, I like to offer my very own take on this.  Right off the bat, I declare that computer can have consciousness.  If you read on, you will see why I’ve come up with this declaration.

Something is so illusive that when it’s right in front of us and yet we think it’s somewhere in heaven.  I believe consciousness is as simple as that.  When we think of consciousness, we tend to think that it’s mysterious.  We don’t understand what it is, but we like to think that we know what it is.  We name this consciousness, because we think if we know who we are, we are conscious.  We name this consciousness, because we think we have innate understanding of our surroundings.  We think computer cannot be programmed to the level of our consciousness, thus consciousness could never be programmable.

I refute the idea of consciousness as a mysterious state that has no connection to the mechanics of the brain.  Some people argue that consciousness can exist outside the brain.  These people think that taking away the brain, consciousness would float on.  I wonder if there is such a consciousness existed, where would it float to?  Perhaps, it would float to a land of mystery where consciousness would cease to exist, because nobody would care if it is exist or not since nobody could observe it for it is being locked in the land of mystery, for forever.  The key is that consciousness should be observable!

I think if a program is designed in a way that it can act intelligently on the human level or even on a higher level, it’s safe to say the machine with such a program is highly or super intelligent.  Is it safe to say it’s consciously conscious?  I would say yes!  You would probably want to argue with me at this very moment, but let me explain.  Imagine a fish inside a fish tank and a fish tank is being placed on the beach, what level of consciousness does the fish have at this very moment?  Basically, what would the fish think when it stares beyond the fish tank and yonder out this ocean with hard waves that push tides into the beach?  Let me guess, perhaps the fish would think there is more water out there than in the fish tank.  Let me guess, perhaps the fish would think there are beautiful sun in the sky, gracefully floating clouds, angry waves of tides, noisy beach goers, and lot of sand.  I bet the fish would not think of animals and plants that live deep under the sea and would never surface.  This means the fish does not have the tools to help itself to see what is under the sea.  At this point, is it safe to ask does the fish have consciousness?

I think the fish has consciousness, but at a fish level and not of a human level.  Should we say consciousness is a level of intelligence?  Why would a person want to believe that a fish has a level of consciousness?  Perhaps, it’s safe to say the fish is consciously thinking because the fish is able to figure out when it’s hungry, angry, happy, getting scared, and so forth.  Then again, we can also argue that the fish is being programmed that way, but it does not think.  This argument would be right if you say the fish does not think like a human, but how would a human know a fish does not think like a fish?  Thus, a human could not argue a fish does not have a fish consciousness.

I think consciousness is an abstracted thought of conscious itself.  What I meant is that consciousness is conjured by the level of human intelligence.  Without the human intelligence or higher, a fish consciousness can only consciously observe a fish’s abstracted consciousness.  Perhaps, somewhere in distant galaxy that the level of consciousness is few trillion times more intelligent than human beings on earth, because these aliens are way more intelligent.  With such intelligence, their level of consciousness is way higher.  They can observe the consciousness at a higher level of abstraction.

Unless something in life will change my point of view on the abstraction of consciousness, in my opinion, consciousness is right in front of us.  With this in mind, I argue that if a human being can program a machine to a level of a human intelligence, I believe that such a machine would believe that it’s a human and consciously thinking like a human.  After all, consciousness is only a level of abstraction.

My Thought of the Day (April 20, 2015)

Mathematically, things are repeatable in multiple universes… either these phenomenons are to be happened in the span of many universes or in a single one.  The frequency of a specific repeatable thing will definitely be varied.  Why I find this is fascinating?  Well, let’s say multiple copies of you with exact genes from head to toes in different universes or in different time of the same universe.  Isn’t this fascinating?  Still, I would question if this is true for the infinite number in which as the number expands, the infinity would be dragged out and formed a brand new unique number, thus we have an infinity.  Can infinity be the exception to the rules in this regard?  If a number can be infinite, how many things are infinite out there?  Can a unique infinite be repeated at which frequency?  Well, I’m not a math wizard at all, and so I don’t have the answers to my own thoughts.  Funny isn’t it?

(No question is stupid!  Only stupid people would not dare to question!)

Grandiose Human (Poem by Vinh Nguyen)

Just another poem I’d written thus far.  Enjoy!!!

Here I stand,
on a simple road,
a stretch of no man’s land,
yet I want to be on this road.

The sky is glorious,
the sun bakes the steamy path,
everything, in my being is serious,
feeling as if I can take on a future wrath.

Self delusional of grandiosity,
here I stand to profess my own elements,
elements of humanity,
and nothing else is relevant.

Meanwhile, the sun retreats slowly,
darker days are coming,
a black hole is swallowing up entire universe slowly,
here I am, a grandiose human, humming.

Contrarian View To Free Market

One would argue central planning could not foster a good economy in a long term basis, because the overall economy is too complex for central planning to be efficient and correct.  Nonetheless, such an argument is based on ideology and not on relative circumstances.  I would argue that even with pure or mix market (with some central planning) orientation of economy, mistakes can be piled as high as the mountain, consequently outweighing the benefits of the efficiency of the free market.

With this notion, I argue that central planning isn’t better or worse than pure or mix market orientated economy.  I think in pure or mix market orientated economy, policy can be rolled out in boldest way and yet the benefits might still have an upper hand against the odd of ill fortune.  With central planning, boldest policy might topple the central planning economy with lightning speed.

Without the invisible hand of the market, central planning mistakes might be just too large for policy makers to realize and reverse the mistakes in time.  Nonetheless, there is no such thing as pure market orientated economy, because government has and forever will play a governance role for the economy — government rolls out policies for economy in a free market oriented economy still.

The difference between free market orientated and central planning economies is that the market orientated economy allows price discovery to be more certain.  In a central planning economy, the tendency of policy makers to fix prices is too great, thus price discovery cannot be so certain.  Without proper price discovery function, the economy might not be able to function properly.

With central planning economy, one cannot be too bold in rolling out policies, instead one must be testing the water temperature at a careful pace for each economic policy rollout.  You can also say it’s like feeling the stones when crossing a violent stream.  Nonetheless, I think a pure central planning economy is very ugly, because all it takes is one big, boldest mistake to ruin the whole mighty economy.

In conclusion, I think whether central planning is better or worse off than market orientated economies, with proper speed of rolling out proper thoughtful policies, both central planning and market orientated economies can be done right.  After all, there is no such thing as pure free market.  If there is a pure free market, then there are no governance and rules — chaos will ensue!  Vice versa, pure central planning economy requires no big, boldest mistake at all — a very hard thing to do!

Alice Would Know?

Just another essay I had written on the question of life and death.  Enjoy!!!

Dark, uncomfortable thought entered my mind.  It was not earth shattering thought, or the end of the world kind of thought.  Nor it was personal or a cry out for help of sort at all.  Nonetheless, it was a thought of being just another human being.  I bet at least once in our lifetime that most of us have thought of death.  Yes, this word, death, isn’t everyone’s favorite word.  It’s a mother of all disgusted kind of words since who would want to leave life for death unless one is very troubled within.  Nonetheless, since the dawn of human time, who had ever escaped death?  Sure, there were legends that some beings had escaped death through various means; resurrection as one example of such means… but really?  Instead of believing a fairy tale, we know very well that if we aren’t the stuffs of a legend we are sure to have an expired date for each and everyone of us.  The expired dates for all of us won’t be the same, but nonetheless they are ticking down regardless… till time will really run out and that’s that for us being a human.  It’s not like time will run out for the world, but time sure will run out for each of us as our specific expired date counts toward that expiration.  An expiration of being a human, and what comes after would be death.  A cold corpse that lies underneath the soil, rotten away as the bugs gnaw at the corpse’s once precious, silky, smooth skin.  Everything would be rotten in the end.

I know not how a story would end for you or me.  Nonetheless, I do know that all of our stories would have an ending.  It’s unavoidable that there was preordained end to a story of being me or you, but how such a preordained ending would turn out is not something you and I would know unless you or I — are/am is arrogantly enough to think writing our own story is just a trivial task.  Not to belittle your arrogant spirit or my own, the truth is that writing one’s own story is easy to be said than done.  Just for an example, one would thought that one could carry out a morning routine as planned, but there would always be something that would slightly steer a morning routine off course.  Only the lucky fews could be arrogantly guessed right how their story would unfold till the very end.  Would that be fun for such lucky fews?  I do not know, but would you want to know how your story would unfold to the very end?

Some people’s endings could be laughable with laughters, not to mock but to reminisce the good old time.  Some people’s endings were meant to be celebrated in silence for they were respectable ones who had lived among us.  Some people’s endings were so terrible that their endings deserved to be forgotten forever and never to be spoken again from anyone’s tongue, but such endings could never be forgotten since they were too terrible to be locked away.  How Hitler had killed himself on his last day, well at least that was what I had learned of his ending, deserved to be retold, again and again, as a lesson for newer generations to learn that being ruthless dictatorship might deserve a very bad ending.

I do not know how yours or mine would unfold, but I do know each of us will have an ending to be told.  How do you like your to be told?  How do I like mine to be told?  To be honest, I like to imagine my own ending will be a joyous, respectable, and glorious one, but as the story goes, one can never know where the rabbit hole ends or how deep it is… one just has to go through it to know what lays at the end.  Alice would know?