Should China and the United States Go To War?

The United States stated she will sail her warships within China’s manmade island’s or islands’ 12 nautical mile, and China openly replied that it would not allow any country to violate its territory.  In coming days, if United States indeed will sail within China’s manmade islands’ 12 nautical mile and if China is indeed going to use force to stop the American warships from entering the area, we may have an uncontrollable situation in which it’s insane just to fathom about the possibility of a situation like this to occur in the first place.  The biggest question is what will happen after if China indeed sinks a ship or two that belong to the United States?  Will the United States go to war with China if such an aftermath would occur?  Who will push the red nuclear button first?  We cannot take China as Iraq, because China got so much more capabilities than Iraq could ever wish for.  China knows United States, although economically weaker by days and months, still has a very strong military and so facing the United States won’t be a walk in the park either.  It just happens that Intelligence Squared Debates program got a debate show in which it asks the debaters to actively debate on the question of “Are China and U.S. long term enemies?”  The video is right after the break.

The long term enemies part the video may get it wrong, because countries don’t look at each other as buddies but potential competitors or pawns or necessary evils or enemies.  It isn’t strange when I stated like that, because it’s true.  Basically, nobody knows how the United States and China will behave toward each other in a much longer term.  Nonetheless, at the present time, United States and China are clearly on the verge of starting a dangerous proposition in which neither country may want to back down, consequently leading to a global war.  If China and United States are at war, the war environment won’t be a vacuum space in which the participants are only China and the United States.  In fact, I believe that a war between these two giants will pull in all sorts of countries that choose sides.  Even a country wants to be neutral in such a scenario may not have a choice to do so, because geographical reason or whatever, one or both giants may want to push such a country into war anyway.

We can have a debate all we want on how long U.S. and China would be enemies, but if someone is crazy enough to think that it’s sensible to have China and United States go to war, we cannot rule out a situation in which nuclear weapons would fall off from the sky in both directions toward both countries.  By the way, Russia is China’s neighbor.  If Russia sees nuclear missiles from the United States heading toward the east, what do you think Russia will do?  If I’m a Russian leader, I would definitely think that the nuclear missiles are heading my way, and so I must reply in kind with my own nuclear missiles.  Meanwhile China too would be in panic and push the red nuclear button.  From my understanding, both China and Russia together have more nuclear weapons than the United States.  It’s not a situation I like to see for sure, because I don’t want to see my life and countless other people lives to be wasted away in seconds for power politics in geopolitical common sense.

In my opinion, geopolitical common sense is opposite from treating thy neighbor the way you want to be treated common sense, because geopolitical common sense is about not having to lose one’s position, power, and so on.  To put it bluntly, nobody wants to be a little guy, because being a king is always better.  A king can have his way, and a little guy will often have to swallow a hurtful pride.  Nonetheless, whenever we include nuclear weapons into the equation, it’s hard for a sane person to think it would be possible for United States and China to go to an all out war.  Perhaps, one side likes to think that such an all out war is insane, and so a controllable war would be possible.  One side may think that at some point, a situation got to a point that nuclear weapons may be used, they could negotiate deals to unwind down the war and nuclear weapons will not be used.  Unfortunately, in a war, I don’t think it’s that easy to control or wish a situation to occur the way we like it.  Thus, we may want to unwind the war down in a war in which nuclear weapons would be used, the enemy may not know our best intention and misread the intention somehow and nuclear weapons would be used anyway.

It’s scary to see the biggest boys on the block with nuclear weapons are about to strangle each other out.  Right after 9/11 of 2001 terrorist attack on World Trade Center’s twin towers in New York, time had become ever more dangerous.  It’s cliche to say that we are living in an interesting time, but I think cliche or not we are actually witnessing a time in which humanity is at risk of losing the sanity of it all.  What is even crazier?  It is that in a time in which I attended middle school, a time in which it was way before 9/11 of 2001, I had read something from a book in which a title I totally have now forgotten, and this something predicted the explosion of a major landmark in New York.  On 9/11 of 2001, I could not believe of what I’d witnessed on that day, and it reminded me a prediction I’d read in a book way back then.  How could a prediction be so true even though prediction is purely a fiction?  In my opinion, prediction is a fiction unless it becomes real.  Today, some people like to use bible prophecy which had been written eons ago to predict a war between China and the United States.  I want to say this, be careful of what you wish for!  A prediction may come true if we believe it and allow it to happen.

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Will United States And China Go To War Against Each Other?

I’m no expert on China or Asia, because all I know about the current events and past events from China and Asia is and was from the news and various sources online. Nonetheless, I feel that China is rising to the point that certain countries — found themselves to be suspicious of China — feel very uncomfortable.  This means these countries have two choices.  Perhaps, they either decide to go against China in International geopolitical agenda, or they might just act really weak and be supportive to China so China won’t target them as potential enemies.

United States was the absolute world hegemonic power right after World War II, and now is still somewhat playing a role of a sole super power.  Nonetheless, China is rising to the point that can undermine United States’ sole super power status in all categories.  Especially, China’s economy is rising still and soon to overtake the United States as the biggest economy, it’s certain that United States will not welcome this phenomenon.

Countries around the world might slowly behind the scene find themselves busy in making a choice between being friend and foe to either United States or China.  Moreover, as United States is making Russia an enemy lately, China suddenly finds herself to have a very powerful ally which has a vast border with her.  After all, Russia needs China as a friend to amplify her influence on Europe.  Ukraine situation is quite clear in term of how Europe could not make an all out sanctions against Russia, because Europe not only depends on Russia’s energy but China’s economy also.  Nonetheless, whether China will be Russia’s instrument of containing Europe or not, it’s clear that with China as a friend Russia has more global clout than otherwise.

As United States is undoubtedly competing against China and Russia on many fronts.  With Russia, the United States might compete head to head on energy front.  With China, United States is competing in so many fronts since China is rising to replace United States as a most powerful force in the world.  Whether China would want to be a world hegemony or not, the outsiders will never know.  Nonetheless, one rising power is sure to clash against an established power unless either rising power and established power can make a compromise somehow.

Countries that are not as strong as the United States but very powerful on their own still might not want to make themselves a target by looking so powerful, because they fear that either the United States or China will target them for whatever reasons.  The world hierarchy system is an imperial one, because we got the super power and then the rest.  Just imagine the super power as a king, and the rest as officers and pawns.  Do you think officers and pawns want to stand out so much to the point of irritating the king?  Nonetheless, right now there are countries that irritate United States and please China, and there are countries that irritate China and please United States.  These countries are already picking side, and they may never be able to change side without serious consequences.

The future is bleak, because we are witnessing the two most powerful forces in the world that are at odd with each other.  Of course, these two forces can be friend or foe according to the leaders that are working for these two forces.  It’s easy to say that these two forces, United States and China, are so intertwined economically to a point that they will not want to make each other as an enemy.  It’s a lot harder for us to know if this is the case since the future is unknown.  Any small conflict can be the fuel to start a conflagration.

There are countries that do not want to see the United States and China work together so closely.  Imagine two most powerful forces in the world work as one, countries that are not viewed as favorable to either powerful force will be the targets for both most powerful forces in the world.  If United States and China are working against each other, certain countries can feel more secure for they could always find a friend in the world.  Moreover, the benefits for small countries are immense when the two giants are not thinking like one, because in the end the two giants act like two tigers that will exhaust themselves out, leaving the small cubs go unchecked.

The question is on everyone mind nowadays, will there be something so unfortunate that will start a war between United States and China?  Of course, nobody will know, because nobody knows the future.  Nonetheless, the trend is not looking very good, because the media of the United States and China are painting the other country as a potential enemy and not as a friend.  Meanwhile, around the world, smaller countries are assessing their standings between United States and China.

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” — by Albert Einstein