Can the age of Automation Change How We Conduct Wars of Tomorrow?

Playing games like Total War: Attila got me thinking of strategies.  Obviously, keyboard commander here which is me got no real experience in this sort of things.  Still, I want to dig into this sort of things anyway.  So, I was thinking that since the Industrial Revolution, machines have allowed the world to be much smaller which has given way to faster communication, faster travel through hard to traverse arteries such as the vast ocean and so forth.  These monumental Industrial Revolution byproducts changed how the world conducted its wars, because before the Industrial Revolution wartime strategies had to account how much time it would take for something to be set up and executed.  Of course, in today world with advanced AI, Internet, Encryption, Quantum machines, and hypersonic missiles and so forth, we still have to account time as a necessary ingredient in wartime strategy.  So imagine how much more important it was for time to be an ingredient in wartime before the time of Industrial Revolution.  Nonetheless, I think we’re in the post-Industrial Revolution period now, because the age of Automation is upon us.

My question is, can the age of Automation change almost everything that represents the Industrial Revolution?  After all, we had witnessed how the age of Industrial Revolution changed things of the age before it, right?  In my opinion, I think the age of Automation will create and change things that will outdated if not all then most of the Industrial Revolution byproducts.  For an example, wartime strategies will have to be changed to fit with time in the age of Automation.

One thing for sure, in the age of Automation, time is an even more important ingredient than ever before, because everything will speed up so much faster.  Imagine the automation of Artificial Intelligence such as self-learning for machines that would speed up the intelligence of machines so these things can self-regulate and self-plan and self-execute directives according to common sense that the humans drill into these machines’ logic programs.  Well, I think since AlphaGo, self-learning AI has already actually happened.  In my opinion, self-learning AI may speed things up so much faster that may make human decisions in wartime seem to be outdated as if we’re comparing today supercomputer with the supercomputer of the 1970s.  Even better, we should use the analogy of quantum computing versus supercomputing of the 1970s.

As we achieve hypersonic technology to speed up the deliverance of weapons and travel modes, self-learning AI will be able to automate things at much faster pace than ever before physically.  Of course, this would force humans to have less time to plan than ever before when changes occur in wartime.  Unless us humans could predict the future, us humans may use self-learning AI to pre-plan possible scenarios of wartime changes to allow self-learning AI to be even faster in execution during a war.

Furthermore, self-learning AI could allow the automation of swarming tech to advance further.  Immagine a swarming of missiles that is capable of allowing each missile to be smart and carrying its own decoys.  The idea of blocking out the sun with swarming of smart missiles and decoys and at the same time preventing the negative chain reaction among the missiles could be very interesting indeed.  What could be automated in the air could also be automated in the sea, and so we could expect more of the same smart machines that would be self-driven to attack targets using the sea as the cover and a travel medium.

Weapons and AI could be categorized as the ingredients for tactical operations, but if one thinks bigger then one could see the accumulation of tactical events would paint a picture of strategy.  Over time, automation would replace the ways that we’re using to conduct a war in wartime.

It is normal for us to belittle continental powers of the past when they disregarded naval power even though some of these continental powers were faced with vast ocean fronts.  But we have to know that before the Industrial Revolution age the ocean was regarded as a natural barrier.  Some historic continental powers took such idea into comfort till disasters struck them down for good.

Some historic naval powers were overconfident with their naval strength and didn’t develop their land forces, allowing their only strength to be taken out by their smarten-up adversaries.  If I’m not wrong, the Phoenicians were a naval superpower but the Romans were not.  Of course, the Romans turned the tide against the Phoenicians when the Romans figured out how to build similar ships to the Phoenicians’ ones.  I think the Romans caught a sunken Phoenician ship on its shore and managed to reverse-engineer it to make copies.  Afterward, the Phoenicians were history.

In today world, I don’t think countries that border ocean would dare to favor land forces over naval forces or vice versa.  Why?  Natural barriers are no longer a big deal nowadays.  Nowadays we got technology that could go undersea, on the sea, on the land, over the land, invisibly in the air, and into space — think you can take any comfort in any natural barrier?  We could be doing all of these things in hypersonic speed in the very near future.  So I think it’s foolishly for any country to rely on outdated strategies of the past ages when such a country has to confront with possible adversaries in the age of Automation.

A country such as China is not only thinking about building up a modern naval force to protect the maritime silk road, but this country is also building up channels on land to tap into all possible solutions and scenarios.  Gone the day of Zheng He’s downfall when a new Chinese emperor thought maritime power was useless because he took the comfort of a natural barrier.  Could we afford to make the same mistakes today by relying on natural barriers and other misguided comforts?  I don’t think it’s wise to take any comfort in the age of Automation because I think even self-learning AI could be hacked into.  I’m pretty confident that wartime strategies for tomorrow will be way different than the past.

 

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Is China Preparing To Go To War Against The United States?

If the United States sanctions North Korea and China won’t go along, I think it’s normal.  If the United States sanctions North Korea and China pretends to go along, I also think it’s normal.  If the United States sanctions North Korea and China is going along with the plan, I don’t think it’s normal!  In fact, I think something big is about to happen.  

We all know China doesn’t want North Korea to be united with South Korea in fear of a South Korea’s victory, allowing the United States to be ever closer to China’s border.  Plus, North Korea got nuclear weapons and China is nervous about the aftermath of such weapons.  For an example, such weapons could be launched from North Korea into China by a force that is no longer friendly to China.  A collapse of North Korean regime could create chaos which allows an opportunity for whoever to launch nuclear warheads into China and avoid the blame at the same time.  Basically, in chaos, you can avoid taking the blame for launching nuclear warheads because you can just argue that wasn’t you and it was somebody else that went crazy during the chaos (i.e., inside North Korea).  China definitely doesn’t want this to happen, ever!

There are many other reasons why China rather has North Korea stays poor, weak, and friendly.  Isn’t it obvious?  Remember the Korean war in the 1950s?  China didn’t have to help North Korea out but they did waste roughly a quarter of a million men in the Korean War to make sure North Korea stayed North Korean.  Why did the Chinese spill so much blood for another country?  I think it was all about strategic calculation on the Chinese part.  Nowadays, even though China is a global superpower and no longer dirt poor, Chinese still thinks North Korea got some values as a weak, friendly state to China.  For obvious reasons I mentioned plus much more.

So, when the Chinese begin to go along with the American sanction scheme to try to collapse the North Korean regime economically, I think it’s something big that is about to be happening.  Let me guess.  I think if China is willing to help the Americans sanction North Korea, this means China is ready to go to war against the United States!  Why?

I think China wants to look good by going along with the United States’ sanction scheme on North Koreans and to win more friends in near term.  Secretly though, I think China is preparing for the day in which China has to attack the United States in North Korea.  For all the reasons I mentioned and if I’m not wrong, China is willing to go to war against the United States, thus China didn’t care to gain some favorable points with the world before North Korean chaos breaks out.

Since China is North Koreans’ main economic lifeline, it’s obvious that Korean regime may collapse if China is really going to sanction North Koreans, for real this time.  If North Korea is about to collapse, North Korea could try to launch an attack on South Korea.  If South Korea gets attacked, the United States would help South Korea defends against the North.  If the North is losing, Chinese will come in again to push the South and the United States back.  This time though, things could get way more catastrophic.  In short, I think that the Chinese think it’s imperative for them to come to the North Koreans’ aid to keep the United States and South Korea away from the Chinese border.

My suspicion is that China is ready to go to war against the United States, and so China doesn’t mind about following the United States’ lead on sanctioning North Korea for real this time — to gain points with the world and to surprise the United States.  After all the United States would have thought that China would only do a weak sanction on North Korea.  Nonetheless, the news has that China orders Chinese businesses to stop dealing with North Koreans and so forth.  Other hard Chinese sanctions are about to or already put in place against the North Koreans. 

I think when North Korea’s economy is completely destroyed, North Korea will attack South Korea.  I think North Korea only got an economy anyway because of China.  So, when North Korea attacks South Korea, the aftermath would be pure chaos.  Of course, there is also a possibility that China invades North Korea to secure nuclear weapons and control North Korea.  This way, the North Koreans still could be a buffer between China and South Korea/United States.

If China invades North Korea, China wouldn’t want the United States to be anywhere near North Korea’s 38th parallel border because China wants to take control of North Korea.  So, if in such chaos and the United States pushes for North Korea control, the United States may as well attack China.  I think this scenario would start a WWIII.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-korean-firms-china-ordered-close-january-114245591.html

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Can Offshore Balancing Be More Realistic For The United States’ Foreign Relations?

Although the United States’ old grand strategy was almost forgotten since the fallen of the Soviet Union, but after so many unfinished businesses around the world such as in Afghanistan and elsewhere the United States may have to revisit an old grand strategy which is known as offshore balancing.  According to Stephen Walt in the video right after the break, he suggests that the United States would be better off in foreign relations in applying offshore balancing for foreign relation building.  Offshore balancing may save the United States from overspending in foreign policy matters, but offshore balancing isn’t discouraging in building healthy relations with foreign powers.  Perhaps, if offshore balancing is done right, the United States may have even more friends than enemies while building a stronger nation at home.  Anyhow, I guess no known strategy is invulnerable to everything, and so offshore balancing may not always be best for certain situations.  In my opinion, Stephen Walt does sound very convincing in his argument that the offshore balancing may help the United States navigates the evermore dangerous globe in a more efficient and healthier manner.