World Powers Of Today Won’t Be Around When World War III Reshuffles World Players

I think we are living in a period in which is very similar to China’s Warring States period.  Of course, there are many things that will refute this point of view soundly.  For an example, we can say that this is the modern era with modern technologies of all sorts, weaponized or not, and so we should not go back too far into the past to figure out the future.  In respect to modernists and contemporary thinkers, I think they have an argument if they’re trying to make this case, but I don’t think they are 100% correct.  In a grander picture, China’s Warring States period reminds us how states were fighting for supremacy.  Once, there were many in the East, but once relatively modest Qin state became the supreme State of them all.  In today picture, we are seeing the same struggle in a larger scale of course, because we are talking about a possible World War III.

United States is trying to retain the global supremacy at a cost of spending greater sum of money for military and whatnot.  Russia is trying to stand up tall and strong again like it once was a super power.  China is re-emerging as a Middle Kingdom again.  Many other important region players such as Turkey, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and so forth are trying to carve out more world space for themselves by taking the advantages of the struggle between huge powers (e.g., United States, China, Russia).  If we look closer at this big picture, it seems the world is playing a similar rhyme to the one in China’s Warring States period.  In fact, this scary picture may also look like any other past period that got many world powers struggling for resources, territories, and cultural supremacy.

I’m sure there were ups and downs for a state that was trying to survive China’s Warring States period.  Thus, it is obvious that at the time, small state that should look harmless was able to dominate over the stronger ones.  Just like life, in natural state, things can go awfully weird and non-straight line.  This means, it’s possible for a harmless, small state of today to dominate the future, globally.  This means we should not think arrogantly that United States, China, and Russia would always be the dominant powers.  Furthermore, we can look back at World War II and see that this war had completely reshuffled many world players’ strengths at the time.  I think Britain was most noticeably shrunken and given way to the United States rise till now.  Although, I think the United States was risen for quite some time already before the WWII, but the rising pace was accelerated even faster and more intense as WWII played out.  Right after WWII, many European powers were drained out of resources, money, and whatnot, thus the United States and Russia became the two most dominant players that created the so called the Cold War.

I’m not a history buff, but I think even with my measly historical knowledge it’s enough for me to see that if World War III to occur, the world will once again see a reshuffle of world powers.  Perhaps, the so called the superpowers of today will no longer be the lead countries after the next world war.  This is why it’s rather sad to see so many online commenters who joked casually about the next world war as if they wished for the next big war to happen, according to their online comments under various online news articles.  Perhaps, Einstein would be dead wrong on the next world war, because it’s possible that cooler heads in the future might use nuclear weapons in limited way, preventing the nuclear winter here on earth.  Nonetheless, such an aftermath won’t look pretty either, because the depopulation of earth in such a scale won’t be easily recovered.  It’s sad to see that us humans dare to think about depopulation, because we fear of running out of resources and spaces.  Why don’t we be constructive instead and think up way to share available resources.   Even better, we can improve our technology to allow us humans to colonize outer space planets and moons so we can mine for even more resources.  Basically, there is untold and near unlimited amount of resources that are waiting for us to mine out in space, and yet here on earth we are killing each other for scraps.

Why am I writing this blog post now?  I’m seeing so many countries are preparing for the next big war.  Especially, the big boys like the United States, China, and Russia are spending even more money on their military.  Perhaps, I’m just paranoid about this, but I fear that countries with stronger military incline to push for war as they think that their military can win war.  Of course, it’s not wrong for a country to have a strong military in case she needs to defend herself in an unexpected war.  With that being said, I don’t think it’s right for a country with strong military to encourage illogical war.  Furthermore, we are no longer in a time period in which weapons can only kill hundreds, but we are in a time period in which our weapons can annihilate a city in one go.  In such a scenario, the aftermath could render a city unusable for decades to come and more.  I don’t think war is wise, because death and destruction do come only when nothing can be agreed upon.  We humans are built to think, and so we should let common sense runs wild!  We should not be like animals that may eat their own children.  Bringing the next big war to fruition may have the consequence that is no different than animals that eat their children.  Such cannibalistic behavior should only be reserved for Hollywood films and not for real life.  In my opinion, the next big war will definitely reshuffle the world powers of today!

Massive Explosion Looks Like Nuclear Detonation Captured By A Cell Phone In Donetsk, Ukraine

We’re living in the age where cameras are everywhere.  Camera on cell phones, camera on drones, and camera here and there.  These cameras are not technically only a camera, because these cameras can become camcorders in a touch or a push of a finger.  With this in mind, it’s not so surprisingly to us all that nowadays we’re seeing citizens can actually be on scene much faster than so called news reporters.  Cameras turn the people who are living in the war zones into citizen reporters so readily and easily, because these people can just upload their videos onto YouTube and relative Internet video services at any time.  One good example of how cameras turn citizens into reporters in war zones is the video right after the break.  If I’m not wrong, just recently someone was using his or her cell phone to record the massive explosion that gave off a shockwave for miles away in Donetsk region of Ukraine.  The appearance of the massive explosion and massive shockwave with a mushroom cloud had the appearance of nuclear weapon was detonated, but there are reports that argue this massive explosion did not give off the nuclear reactions.  This means the video isn’t showing a nuclear detonation but just a massive explosion in Donetsk.  As I’m writing this, Ukraine is still experiencing an intensifying war.  Let’s hope Ukraine will experience peace sooner than later, because in any war people die.

Mutual Assured Destruction For Participants Only

In a nuclear war, a nuclear capable country that got hit first would like to retaliate with nuclear bombs and missiles, but the retaliation capability might not be available if the first preemptive nuclear wave is all it takes to clear out the necessary infrastructure for a retaliation to take place.  I’m no expert in this matter, but it’s commonsense to think that the first nuclear wave is meant to take out the enemy’s nuclear retaliation infrastructure.  Nonetheless, let’s assume a fictional scenario in which the first nuclear wave failed to take out an enemy’s nuclear retaliation infrastructure, and so the retaliation wave was retaliated.  For an example, submarines with nuclear missiles and whatnot could be used for a nuclear retaliation in a nuclear war.

I can imagine how fast things might be happening when a nuclear war breaks out.  Nonetheless, let’s assume a fictional story in which United States saw the first nuclear wave came from Russia, and so the United States launched nuclear missiles and bombs toward Russia for a retaliation.  During this scenario, other countries that had yet to participate in the conflict were horrified at the scenario.  Nuclear capable countries that had yet to enter the conflict decided to sit out and watch United States and Russia became radioactive.  They were not prepared to see their people got involved in a nuclear war.

As Russia and United States became radioactive, the countries that sat out of the nuclear war became even more convincing that they would sign a peace treaty with the rest to see nuclear war would not break out again.  In the end, United States and Russia were the only two countries that got radioactive.  The people in both countries were nuked to a point of no return.  Meanwhile, China and the rest were quickly assured the world that they would do everything they could to help out Russia and United States in whatever fashion for whatever left in both radioactive countries.

Although the scenario I just described is fictional, I don’t think for a second that it’s impossible for such a scenario.  In this strange world of ours, even something nasty as nuclear weapon is possible, how can we think the scenario I described is not possible?  Contemporary speaking, United States and Russia are in each other’s cross-hairs.  As the conflict between United States and Russia heats up, the nuclear war scenario between both countries may enter our thoughts.  However far-fetched things seem as United States and Russia battle each other out for energy supremacy and whatnot, let’s hope both countries will be sane enough in the end to strike peace arrangement somehow.  After all, both countries cannot go all out, because nuclear war is the last resort in which nobody wants to see it happens.

I think many people may think that when a nuclear war happens, the whole world will be damned by nuclear bombs and whatnot.  Nonetheless, perhaps by witnessing the first and second wave of nuclear attacks by the countries that carry out the nuclear attacks, the bystanders might just as well be bystanders unless they see nuclear bombs and missiles head their way.  In conclusion, I think nuclear war will result in a mutual assured destruction for the countries that are going to be responsible for a nuclear war, but the world won’t go nuclear winter.  The losers of nuclear war are going to mutually assured destruct themselves, but the world will standby and watch till the dust settles.  After all, why would any sane country want to see a population gets nuke out of the existence?

Clear Cut Divided World May Lead Countries Into Radioactive World War III

A war can break out for all sorts of reasons.  Sometimes, a war can just start by a strong mind leader who has a lust for wars.  Nonetheless, in a complex world of today, albeit wars might occur for the reasons that nobody will ever be able to guess, I think a global war might occur easily if the world is so clearly divided.  What do I mean by this?  Read on and I expand on this further…

Well, if the world is so clearly divided in a sense that a world is splitting into two groups — each group consists of friendly countries that are so ready to defend one another — I think this configuration for the world will easily ignite a global war.  How come?  You can call it as domino effect or a string effect or ally effect or whatever, but the reality is that this sort of division in the world will encourage one country to go to defend a friendly country with little hesitation.  Although, defending a friendly country is a noble deed, but when the world is so clearly divided into two groups, many countries may tend to look pass the diplomacy and pour resources into war preparation instead.  Of course, if a country wants peace, it must always be ready for war.  When a country is so war ready, it’s very unlikely to be considered as a weak target and will not easily be bullied or taunted into a possible war.  Nonetheless, war preparation is not the same as war preparation with clear cut global division.

When we have a world with clear cut global division, countries that are grouped together and war ready will find themselves to be overly confident.  Overconfidence may lead into pushing diplomacy aside, thus war preparation might just become preemptive strikes.  Perhaps, preemptive strikes come in all sort of forms, and eventually the physical form of war might just become a reality.

In today world though, we have nuclear weapons, thus even with our current clear cut global division world, I doubt that a global war such as World War III will easily erupt.  Nonetheless, if certain countries that are able to find a way out of (MAD) Mutual Assure Destruction situation, then a clear cut global division kind of world, even with nuclear weapons, will find itself embroil in a global war.

I think the world we are currently living in is a dangerous one.  It’s clearly that China is a rising global power, and some people even consider that China is already a super power.  Whether China is a super power or not, it does have more allies than before for China is growing in military and economic strengths.  Furthermore, with China’s advancements, many countries are rethinking about their strategic friendships.  With more countries are willing to be under China’s global influences, this will put United States in a situation which will be very uncomfortable.

Of course, United States can follow Britain’s playbook.  In the past Britain conceded its global power to the United States in a way that it did not wage war against the United States.  Of course, the British did attack the United States when the United States was still a colony or sort of.  Nonetheless, the United States declared independence from Britain, and when the dust was settled Britain did not try to invade the United States again.  After World War II, Britain conceded her power to the United States.

Another option for the United States in the face of China rising is that doing everything it can to disturb China’s rise.  The eventual outcome of this option will not be clear for obvious reasons.  One obvious reason is that nobody can be sure that the United States can contain China, because China is economically strong and militarily ambitious.  Furthermore, China is one of those countries that can use the MAD strategy.  With modern nuclear weapons, China can deny a potential enemy from being too aggressive against China’s core interests.

As China is ambitiously rising, the United States is embroiling in economic downturns and global enemies such as Russia and other players in the Middle East.  While the United States is clearly wanting to contain China somewhat, but the United States is having her plate full.  With a full plate to deal with, containing China will not be easy for the United States.

Since China is knowing that the United States is trying to contain its ambitions, thus China is working in a direction in which will not be favorable for the United States.  Furthermore, China is now working ever closer with Russia, thus the United States will have to find other allies to counter China Russia combination.  Nonetheless, China and Russia are creating their own organizations that allow even more countries to join such organizations, and so the world is becoming evermore clear cut divided.  The world is definitely being divided by United States and China.

As the world is being divided by two most awesome countries, United States and China, many smaller and weaker countries will pick side.  Some countries will try to stay neutral, but for how long?  What if China or United States wants such neutral countries to pick side at all costs, can such neutral countries stay neutral?  For an example, United States and Europe and Russia want Ukraine to pick side!  The original government of Ukraine wanted to go with Russia, but it got overthrown, and now the newer government wants to go with NATO (Europe and United States).  Nonetheless, I doubt Russia will approve of that and will do everything it can to prevent something like that from happening.

In conclusion, my theory is that if MAD isn’t useful anymore, a clear cut global divided world will find itself embroiling in global war.  Perhaps, we can call such a war a World War III.  Cliche or not, it’s a war that I do not want to see it happens.  After all, the next global war might push countries with nuclear weapons to go nuclear.  Modern nuclear weapons are way more powerful than the ones that the United States had dropped on Japan, and so I think we should be fearful of the next global war.  Instead of millions of deaths, we may witness hundreds of millions of deaths for the next global war.

Can Financial War Foretell That A Physical War Is Near?

After I had done finished the reading of Chapter 2 for “The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System” By James Rickards, I’m convinced that financial war could precede the physical war.  In fact, I think financial war might be one of the early telltale signs that may point out that the physical war is near.  After all, financial war is designed to be first strike of first strike, because it helps the attackers to damage the enemy’s economy, consequently weakening the enemy’s ability to conduct physical war in the long term basis.  Nonetheless, it doesn’t mean that a physical war is definitely going to happen when a financial war has happened.  It’s just that I think financial war is definitely preceding a physical war, because financial war can be used to weaken an enemy’s economy.

In the digital age we’re living in, financial war can cause havoc beyond imagination, because trillions of dollar could be vanishing in digital wipe.  Perhaps, the digital wipes could come in waves such as stock market collapse, bank runs, bond market collapse, and so forth.  Systemic collapse such as the financial crisis in 2007 was experienced waves of paper wealth loss, and the same thing can be happening again either by targeted attack by designed or by another unseen consequential event which happens naturally by the design of nature (such as systemic risk).

By digital wipe I meant that our money (more like the world money) can vanish in the digital world even though paper wealth loss might be the eventual explanation.  After all, money nowadays can be zeros and ones in the digital world.  Stock market is trading in the digital age with digital technology.  The book suggested that successful cyber-attacks could amplify the financial war in general.  In fact, cyber-attack method is one of the methods a state can employ to launch a financial war.  Nonetheless, cyber-attack method isn’t the only mean for financial war, because financial war in general is a lot more complex.  Such as sanction and other means can be employed too!

Anyhow, once the financial war attack begins, I bet the chain of big events will eventually follow.  Until the point of an enemy’s economy can no longer be weakened by the means of financial war, then the physical war might follow unless one of the war participants decides to make peace and prevent the physical war.  Of course, physical war between major powers such as China, Russia and United States cannot be breaking out easily, because these are nuclear power states.  Besides financial mutual destruction capability, these states can probably annihilate each other with radioactive capability such as nuclear bombs/missiles and so forth.  They might deliver these nuclear weapons at hypersonic speed which is up to 10 times the speed of sound, consequently making it very hard for a defense apparatus to shoot down such nuclear weapons before these devastated radioactive weapons reach the intended targets.

As the book suggested, perhaps physical war might not happen as one side might back down from further conflict as the financial war might be devastating enough to dictate the winner in the conflict.  The book suggested further that major forces such as China and Russia are preparing for such possibilities by accruing gold.  The book detailed that at the height of financial war between United States and Iran, Iran was partly successfully circumvented the United States dollar sanction by accepting gold as payment for the oil export.  Until when the United States told its allies to stop trading goods with Iran using gold, it was then that Iran had to import and export goods using its allies local currencies such as Yuan, Ruble, and Rupee.

In these two early chapters, the book already suggested that United States unintentionally pushed Iran to stop using the dollar as the reserve currency.  This might suggest that other countries are looking at Iran and fearing that one day they maybe in the Iran situation, thus they might have to face U.S. dollar sanction, consequently putting their economy at risks of collapsing.  These other states may already have been diverting and diversifying their dollars into something more tangible such as gold and so forth.  In China and Russia case, these two countries are now ramping up their natural gas deals and whatever else to partly diversifying their dollar reserve holding.  So too hoarding gold is among the plans of their diversifying activity in case the dollar is in trouble.  The United States government was shutdown not too long ago, because of the debt limit ceiling bickering between the political parties — this had further added the anxiety for the states that are currently holding dollar as their reserve currency for oil trading and so forth.

Even if a physical war breaks out, the book suggested that the winner of the physical war in the end might still regain the financial war lost.  After all, the winner can dictate the terms in the end right?  Nonetheless, in my opinion nobody knows how the next great war will turn out to be since we’re living in the nuclear age.  The nuclear fallout is beyond my imagination.  Sure, I have seen movies’ depictions of the nuclear fallout, but how close to the reality the movies’ nuclear fallout depiction is remaining to be seen.  Nobody knows the future I would say!  If God forbid that the nuclear fallout might occur and be so devastated, the victor of a physical war might not be able to regain the financial war lost, because the situation got so bad that dictating terms at such time might not be even feasible or sensible for all involved parties/states.

Perhaps, the nuclear age is so scary that major powers such as United States, China, and Russia, if sensible enough, may dare only to engage in financial war — leaving physical war to be carried out by the Hollywood movies.  If this is a possible scenario, I must say that financial war is even more important than otherwise.  After all, the victor in financial war will be able to dictate terms that are favorable for a victor’s state in today globalized world in the aftermath.  Perhaps, financial war will be able to be used as a targeted weapon which isn’t involving too many states at the same time, because it’s not as destructive as a physical great war such as World War II.  Because World War III may go nuclear!

As the case of United States sanctioned Iran from the dollar payment system, it was clear that United States could orchestrate a targeted financial war against a single state.  Sure, the United States did involve its allies to stop trading dollar for Iran goods; these so called allies had their own interests to be contented with, consequently forcing them to not carry out their financial war against Iran at 100% effort.  Moreover, Iran got the oil that could be bought at cheaper price during the height of the  United States’ Iran sanctions, and the so called allies had allowed Iran to export oil for gold and so forth.  With accruing gold, Iran could then trade the gold with its allies such as China, Russia, and India for other goods and services.  Even when the United States had involved allies such as Germany and so forth to stop Iran from exporting oil for dollar and gold eventually, Iran survived the sanction and the allies were humming fine.  This demonstrated that the financial war could destroy the targeted enemy’s economy without ending humanity.

Knowing financial war can destroy an enemy’s economy without ending humanity, nuclear war might only be the last desperate attempt for a state to defend itself.  This might encourage states to use financial war more frequently to push the boundary of bargaining at world stage.  Nonetheless, since we are living in the digital age and globalized world, financial war can be very consequential.  In the United States case, if an enemy is successfully bringing down the economy of the United States through financial war, it may not destroy the United States in short term.  In the longer term though, a successful financial war against the United States can be devastated for the overall health of the United States economy.  Furthermore, if the United States gets weaker financially, United States won’t be able to maintain her military might and so forth.

Certainly, it’s in the United States’ best interests to not let a financial war attack to bring down the United States economy, because in the longer term the United States may not be able to grow normally again.  Certainly, it’s the case for other countries besides United States to make sure their economy won’t be disturbed by financial war.  After all, I think a financial war can be devastated enough to disrupt even the everyday peoples’ lives.  I think financial war should not be taken lightly and be waged so carefree.  Countries of the world should care more for the health of global finance, because we’re living in a globalized world.  A break in the chain might do more harm in the long run, because things are moving faster in a much more complex globalized and closely finance linked world.

Source:  http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/13/hypersonic-arms-race-china-tests-high-speed-missil/?page=all

Energy Needs Drive World Big Chess Game

Energy need for the world is an ever changing chess game.  Countries in different regions are trying to outmaneuver one another for scarce resources, and energy resources are always part of the big chess game.  For an example, Russia wants to stay dominated in supplying energy to the regions that she has the most stakes in.  Nonetheless, world conflicts cannot be avoided, thus Russia needs to make sure she has the means and ways to not too depend on any single region for bringing in her energy resources’ revenues.

Ukraine conflict is still going on, and Russia knows that Europe is evermore an opposing force since European countries are supporting the oppositional force within Ukraine conflict.  Moreover European countries are eagerly to wean off the dependency of Russia’s energy resources since conflicts such as Ukraine might put European countries at the mercy of Russia’s energy sanctions.  Meanwhile China is an ever growing economy with a modern military that needs more energy resources than ever before to continually power her mightily growing machine.

With Ukraine conflict is still going on, Russia is eager to wean off her dependency on European countries for exporting her energy resources, and so she is looking East toward China.  Meanwhile China is not too eager to depend on Russia for energy resources since putting all eggs into one basket is a very bad idea, because everybody can use one’s dependency as a mean to sanction in a bargain or world conflict.  With this in mind, China is also looking elsewhere in the Middle East for alternative channels of piping more energy resources into China.

United States is now wanting to export more energy resources as her industry is shrinking, thus she has less needs in hoarding these energy resources.  Europe is looking toward other regions for energy resources so she can wean off her dependency from Russia.  The whole big chess game is being played out as we speak, and nobody knows who will be the victor at the end of this very big chess game.  Right after the break, check out a video I found on YouTube which is very descriptive in explaining this sort of big chess game, and the global players are Europe, Russia, United States, Middle Eastern countries, and China.