Should China and the United States Go To War?

The United States stated she will sail her warships within China’s manmade island’s or islands’ 12 nautical mile, and China openly replied that it would not allow any country to violate its territory.  In coming days, if United States indeed will sail within China’s manmade islands’ 12 nautical mile and if China is indeed going to use force to stop the American warships from entering the area, we may have an uncontrollable situation in which it’s insane just to fathom about the possibility of a situation like this to occur in the first place.  The biggest question is what will happen after if China indeed sinks a ship or two that belong to the United States?  Will the United States go to war with China if such an aftermath would occur?  Who will push the red nuclear button first?  We cannot take China as Iraq, because China got so much more capabilities than Iraq could ever wish for.  China knows United States, although economically weaker by days and months, still has a very strong military and so facing the United States won’t be a walk in the park either.  It just happens that Intelligence Squared Debates program got a debate show in which it asks the debaters to actively debate on the question of “Are China and U.S. long term enemies?”  The video is right after the break.

The long term enemies part the video may get it wrong, because countries don’t look at each other as buddies but potential competitors or pawns or necessary evils or enemies.  It isn’t strange when I stated like that, because it’s true.  Basically, nobody knows how the United States and China will behave toward each other in a much longer term.  Nonetheless, at the present time, United States and China are clearly on the verge of starting a dangerous proposition in which neither country may want to back down, consequently leading to a global war.  If China and United States are at war, the war environment won’t be a vacuum space in which the participants are only China and the United States.  In fact, I believe that a war between these two giants will pull in all sorts of countries that choose sides.  Even a country wants to be neutral in such a scenario may not have a choice to do so, because geographical reason or whatever, one or both giants may want to push such a country into war anyway.

We can have a debate all we want on how long U.S. and China would be enemies, but if someone is crazy enough to think that it’s sensible to have China and United States go to war, we cannot rule out a situation in which nuclear weapons would fall off from the sky in both directions toward both countries.  By the way, Russia is China’s neighbor.  If Russia sees nuclear missiles from the United States heading toward the east, what do you think Russia will do?  If I’m a Russian leader, I would definitely think that the nuclear missiles are heading my way, and so I must reply in kind with my own nuclear missiles.  Meanwhile China too would be in panic and push the red nuclear button.  From my understanding, both China and Russia together have more nuclear weapons than the United States.  It’s not a situation I like to see for sure, because I don’t want to see my life and countless other people lives to be wasted away in seconds for power politics in geopolitical common sense.

In my opinion, geopolitical common sense is opposite from treating thy neighbor the way you want to be treated common sense, because geopolitical common sense is about not having to lose one’s position, power, and so on.  To put it bluntly, nobody wants to be a little guy, because being a king is always better.  A king can have his way, and a little guy will often have to swallow a hurtful pride.  Nonetheless, whenever we include nuclear weapons into the equation, it’s hard for a sane person to think it would be possible for United States and China to go to an all out war.  Perhaps, one side likes to think that such an all out war is insane, and so a controllable war would be possible.  One side may think that at some point, a situation got to a point that nuclear weapons may be used, they could negotiate deals to unwind down the war and nuclear weapons will not be used.  Unfortunately, in a war, I don’t think it’s that easy to control or wish a situation to occur the way we like it.  Thus, we may want to unwind the war down in a war in which nuclear weapons would be used, the enemy may not know our best intention and misread the intention somehow and nuclear weapons would be used anyway.

It’s scary to see the biggest boys on the block with nuclear weapons are about to strangle each other out.  Right after 9/11 of 2001 terrorist attack on World Trade Center’s twin towers in New York, time had become ever more dangerous.  It’s cliche to say that we are living in an interesting time, but I think cliche or not we are actually witnessing a time in which humanity is at risk of losing the sanity of it all.  What is even crazier?  It is that in a time in which I attended middle school, a time in which it was way before 9/11 of 2001, I had read something from a book in which a title I totally have now forgotten, and this something predicted the explosion of a major landmark in New York.  On 9/11 of 2001, I could not believe of what I’d witnessed on that day, and it reminded me a prediction I’d read in a book way back then.  How could a prediction be so true even though prediction is purely a fiction?  In my opinion, prediction is a fiction unless it becomes real.  Today, some people like to use bible prophecy which had been written eons ago to predict a war between China and the United States.  I want to say this, be careful of what you wish for!  A prediction may come true if we believe it and allow it to happen.

What I Think About China Influence For Businesses And Consumers In The World; Just Rehashing What We Already Know, Really!

As China’s economy and military might grow ever stronger, what I think about China Influence for businesses and consumers in the world?  According to Wikipedia’s “Demographics of China” article, based on 2012 census China’s population is at 1,344,130,000.  I think it’s somewhat bigger now since we’re in 2013.  Nonetheless, 2012 census is recent enough, and so we have the idea how big the population there is in China.  With such a big population, China has a humongous human capital potential.  Nonetheless, if China’s economy has yet to grow to where it’s today already, I don’t think China’s humongous human capital potential can be a positive force just yet for China.  We know this isn’t the case!  In fact, we know that China’s economy is continuing to grow at a really fast pace while the world’s economy is still on life support.  No wonder that we see China Influence is growing everywhere in the world.

According to RT’s “China leaves behind the US as world’s leading trade partner” article, since 2011 China is topping the United States in term of who has more trading partners in the world.  According to RT’s article I just mentioned, in 2011, China traded with 124 countries, but the United States could only trade with 76.  Before 2011, it was the United States that led the trading pacts, but China overtook the United States since 2011.  This fact is still true today I suppose since there isn’t any newer facts/news that corroborate otherwise.  Obviously, who has more trade partners will have more saying in world trade matters.  In our recent time, I guess China would be the one who can dictate the direction of the world in term of trading.

As China Influence grows in trading, China can dictate more trading terms.  For an example, if I’m China, I would dictate how I would like to pay for my import and get payment for my export.  It seems that China is already doing this!  If I’m not wrong, I’ve been hearing that China has signed some sorts of trading agreements with certain trade partners to have trades to be made in Yuan (Chinese currency) and not in Dollar (U.S.A. currency).  I think China is doing this to protect herself from having to hold too much dollars.  Also, China is being pressured by United States to have the Yuan appreciates, therefore China is hedging to have more Yuan(s) on hand as the Yuan is going to appreciate in value anyway.  Holding stronger Yuan(s) in China’s whatever accounts will allow China to become wealthier and have stronger ability to purchase whatever abroad and fund whatever locally better than ever before.  With the one example above, how China dictate trades to be made in Yuan, we can see China Influence in trading is very powerful, because China can dictate trading terms in many many more ways and on China’s own terms.

As China is trying to grow even more powerful in all aspects, China is also keen on having their population to spend more.  This way, China too has the influence in importing.  I think it’s natural for Chinese to import more since they’re getting wealthier by the day; therefore, whatever China does to stimulate this sort of behavior, China will see Chinese consumers open up their wallets easier.  Nonetheless, Chinese are fanatic savers, therefore it’s in their DNA to spend wisely, and so we might not see Chinese go crazy over spending.  Still, I think as time progresses and as Chinese grow wealthier by the day, their population has to import more and more and spend more and more.  With a billion plus of people, China will dominate world import even though only a quarter of Chinese population go on spending spree the Chinese fanatic saving way.

As China dominate world import, she can influence the world import greatly.  She can dictate how the world business would be ran.  Fictitiously, for an example, she could make it clear that Chinese people love leather, therefore whatever leather businesses in the world would be greatly benefited in term of exporting.  With importing power/influence, China can wield importing trade terms in her favor.

Combining export and import influences, China is a force to be reckoned with in term of world trade matters.  We know that with great power comes great responsibility, if you don’t mind I borrow this phrase from Spider-Man movie.  Basically, I’m just trying to hint that China can use her China Influence just like how United States have had been doing for awhile now.  China is different though!  Albeit, some world trade interests might converge, China has different culture(s) and interests.  China is on the rise, therefore she wants to be going up and up and just a lot more of going up.  Anything else would be against her interests.  If I’m China, I would do the same!  This is why we’re seeing China is spending more for her military.  This isn’t a surprise but logical, because she needs to build up her military foundation, innovation, structure, strategy, and whatever military to protect her economic might.  Will this ultimately collide with United States’ overall economic/military grand strategy?  The answer is obvious to whoever is willing to take a closer look, right?

People might argue that China does not have friends, because people are using the traditional views that they have had of China.  I think these people aren’t keeping up with time.  Let be logical, whoever has the money has the influence and friends.  This is fact for most of the time in the real world!!!  It cannot be denied, because we’re not watching unfolding events in a movie or a fairy tale!  I think China will make more friends than ever before even though there are those South China Sea islands + land + water + resources disputes and East China Sea dispute.  I don’t pretend that I follow enough about these China Sea’s disputes to know enough details on them, and so I won’t talk about China Sea’s issues.  Instead, I just want to emphasize that China isn’t so aggressive in China Sea to the point that she is starting a war.  Instead, I think China will use her so called China Influence to influence the outcomes of China Sea’s disputes.  I think China will get what she wants in the end, because either you start a war with China or be succumbed under China Influence.  I know in this day and age, starting a traditional war isn’t something that we can just underestimate, and China isn’t military weak!  You can argue about this, but the truth is that who is in their right mind to start a war with China and/or Russia in a nuclear age?  No need to say more, because China is nuclear capable!!!

In summary, I think as we’re moving ahead, China Influence will grow ever stronger, and she can dictate world matters in her own terms a lot more.  It’s all depending on how aggressive she will be!  Furthermore, we know nobody is crazy enough to go to war against China, unless craziness will actually happen!!!  China Influence can dictate how businesses and consumers around the world behave, because it’s obvious that with money, power, and influence she can persuade world trade matters to favor her trade terms.  Yes, I don’t talk much about China’s internal issues such as pollution and political dissents, and I’m doing this on purpose.  How come?  We all know that all countries have some sorts of internal issues, but not that many internal issues can be a death knell to a country’s health.  Furthermore, it’s all depending on how a country progresses in economics, military, policy, and world influence that allows such a country to weather the storms, whether that be internal or external issues.  China is looking strong in economics, military, policy, and world influence, therefore I don’t see how China cannot weather both internal and external issues.  Of course, I cannot be absolutely right, because I don’t know much.  Nonetheless, I think my intuition tells me that China is going to have a hell lot of fun in influencing the world’s businesses and consumers for a long time to come.

Sources: