Should China and the United States Go To War?

The United States stated she will sail her warships within China’s manmade island’s or islands’ 12 nautical mile, and China openly replied that it would not allow any country to violate its territory.  In coming days, if United States indeed will sail within China’s manmade islands’ 12 nautical mile and if China is indeed going to use force to stop the American warships from entering the area, we may have an uncontrollable situation in which it’s insane just to fathom about the possibility of a situation like this to occur in the first place.  The biggest question is what will happen after if China indeed sinks a ship or two that belong to the United States?  Will the United States go to war with China if such an aftermath would occur?  Who will push the red nuclear button first?  We cannot take China as Iraq, because China got so much more capabilities than Iraq could ever wish for.  China knows United States, although economically weaker by days and months, still has a very strong military and so facing the United States won’t be a walk in the park either.  It just happens that Intelligence Squared Debates program got a debate show in which it asks the debaters to actively debate on the question of “Are China and U.S. long term enemies?”  The video is right after the break.

The long term enemies part the video may get it wrong, because countries don’t look at each other as buddies but potential competitors or pawns or necessary evils or enemies.  It isn’t strange when I stated like that, because it’s true.  Basically, nobody knows how the United States and China will behave toward each other in a much longer term.  Nonetheless, at the present time, United States and China are clearly on the verge of starting a dangerous proposition in which neither country may want to back down, consequently leading to a global war.  If China and United States are at war, the war environment won’t be a vacuum space in which the participants are only China and the United States.  In fact, I believe that a war between these two giants will pull in all sorts of countries that choose sides.  Even a country wants to be neutral in such a scenario may not have a choice to do so, because geographical reason or whatever, one or both giants may want to push such a country into war anyway.

We can have a debate all we want on how long U.S. and China would be enemies, but if someone is crazy enough to think that it’s sensible to have China and United States go to war, we cannot rule out a situation in which nuclear weapons would fall off from the sky in both directions toward both countries.  By the way, Russia is China’s neighbor.  If Russia sees nuclear missiles from the United States heading toward the east, what do you think Russia will do?  If I’m a Russian leader, I would definitely think that the nuclear missiles are heading my way, and so I must reply in kind with my own nuclear missiles.  Meanwhile China too would be in panic and push the red nuclear button.  From my understanding, both China and Russia together have more nuclear weapons than the United States.  It’s not a situation I like to see for sure, because I don’t want to see my life and countless other people lives to be wasted away in seconds for power politics in geopolitical common sense.

In my opinion, geopolitical common sense is opposite from treating thy neighbor the way you want to be treated common sense, because geopolitical common sense is about not having to lose one’s position, power, and so on.  To put it bluntly, nobody wants to be a little guy, because being a king is always better.  A king can have his way, and a little guy will often have to swallow a hurtful pride.  Nonetheless, whenever we include nuclear weapons into the equation, it’s hard for a sane person to think it would be possible for United States and China to go to an all out war.  Perhaps, one side likes to think that such an all out war is insane, and so a controllable war would be possible.  One side may think that at some point, a situation got to a point that nuclear weapons may be used, they could negotiate deals to unwind down the war and nuclear weapons will not be used.  Unfortunately, in a war, I don’t think it’s that easy to control or wish a situation to occur the way we like it.  Thus, we may want to unwind the war down in a war in which nuclear weapons would be used, the enemy may not know our best intention and misread the intention somehow and nuclear weapons would be used anyway.

It’s scary to see the biggest boys on the block with nuclear weapons are about to strangle each other out.  Right after 9/11 of 2001 terrorist attack on World Trade Center’s twin towers in New York, time had become ever more dangerous.  It’s cliche to say that we are living in an interesting time, but I think cliche or not we are actually witnessing a time in which humanity is at risk of losing the sanity of it all.  What is even crazier?  It is that in a time in which I attended middle school, a time in which it was way before 9/11 of 2001, I had read something from a book in which a title I totally have now forgotten, and this something predicted the explosion of a major landmark in New York.  On 9/11 of 2001, I could not believe of what I’d witnessed on that day, and it reminded me a prediction I’d read in a book way back then.  How could a prediction be so true even though prediction is purely a fiction?  In my opinion, prediction is a fiction unless it becomes real.  Today, some people like to use bible prophecy which had been written eons ago to predict a war between China and the United States.  I want to say this, be careful of what you wish for!  A prediction may come true if we believe it and allow it to happen.

Advertisements

Mutual Assured Destruction For Participants Only

In a nuclear war, a nuclear capable country that got hit first would like to retaliate with nuclear bombs and missiles, but the retaliation capability might not be available if the first preemptive nuclear wave is all it takes to clear out the necessary infrastructure for a retaliation to take place.  I’m no expert in this matter, but it’s commonsense to think that the first nuclear wave is meant to take out the enemy’s nuclear retaliation infrastructure.  Nonetheless, let’s assume a fictional scenario in which the first nuclear wave failed to take out an enemy’s nuclear retaliation infrastructure, and so the retaliation wave was retaliated.  For an example, submarines with nuclear missiles and whatnot could be used for a nuclear retaliation in a nuclear war.

I can imagine how fast things might be happening when a nuclear war breaks out.  Nonetheless, let’s assume a fictional story in which United States saw the first nuclear wave came from Russia, and so the United States launched nuclear missiles and bombs toward Russia for a retaliation.  During this scenario, other countries that had yet to participate in the conflict were horrified at the scenario.  Nuclear capable countries that had yet to enter the conflict decided to sit out and watch United States and Russia became radioactive.  They were not prepared to see their people got involved in a nuclear war.

As Russia and United States became radioactive, the countries that sat out of the nuclear war became even more convincing that they would sign a peace treaty with the rest to see nuclear war would not break out again.  In the end, United States and Russia were the only two countries that got radioactive.  The people in both countries were nuked to a point of no return.  Meanwhile, China and the rest were quickly assured the world that they would do everything they could to help out Russia and United States in whatever fashion for whatever left in both radioactive countries.

Although the scenario I just described is fictional, I don’t think for a second that it’s impossible for such a scenario.  In this strange world of ours, even something nasty as nuclear weapon is possible, how can we think the scenario I described is not possible?  Contemporary speaking, United States and Russia are in each other’s cross-hairs.  As the conflict between United States and Russia heats up, the nuclear war scenario between both countries may enter our thoughts.  However far-fetched things seem as United States and Russia battle each other out for energy supremacy and whatnot, let’s hope both countries will be sane enough in the end to strike peace arrangement somehow.  After all, both countries cannot go all out, because nuclear war is the last resort in which nobody wants to see it happens.

I think many people may think that when a nuclear war happens, the whole world will be damned by nuclear bombs and whatnot.  Nonetheless, perhaps by witnessing the first and second wave of nuclear attacks by the countries that carry out the nuclear attacks, the bystanders might just as well be bystanders unless they see nuclear bombs and missiles head their way.  In conclusion, I think nuclear war will result in a mutual assured destruction for the countries that are going to be responsible for a nuclear war, but the world won’t go nuclear winter.  The losers of nuclear war are going to mutually assured destruct themselves, but the world will standby and watch till the dust settles.  After all, why would any sane country want to see a population gets nuke out of the existence?