Sticks and Stones

In nuclear age, some people tend to think numbers don’t matter, because one nuke can send millions and more to the grave.  Nonetheless, I can’t help but wonder what if all the nukes go off but fail to kill the very last couple thousands of human beings, because the last few ones are resilient as cockroaches.  This shows that number does matter.  With enough number, even all the nukes go off, some human beings will be able to carry on with sticks and stones.  These people will live, but they will suffer a hell that they wish they had never been born.  Perhaps, Einstein can be wrong in some mathematical equations, but he might be dead right on people who live through the next great war will have to use sticks and stones for their regiments.

I’ve always had this thought in the back of my head, and it keeps on telling me that nuclear winter is coming.  We have witnessed atomic bombs went off in WWII in Japan, and the devastation of these bombs left behind was godlike destruction.  According to https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=1006041224270, a single modern nuclear bomb such as hydrogen bomb can be 1000 times more powerful than an atomic bomb.  With this picture of how powerful a hydrogen bomb may be, do we really want to test to see Einstein is right about sticks and stones?  Although I think there will be some lucky souls that might survive the successive nuclear bomb attacks — they might have underground bunkers and whatnot that can resist nuclear bomb attacks — but I doubt that we would know for sure who could win in the battle of number versus nuclear weapon.

In WWI, people were convinced that peace would prevail as the twentieth century was young.  I had heard some people mentioned how people back then believed modern trades and business links would bring peace and prevail over war.  Unfortunately, they were so wrong as WWI broke out in July 28th of 1914.  Nowadays, some people are believing that the world is so interconnected by modern communications, transportations, financial connections, trade links, and whatnot that WWIII would be impossible.  These people may want to refresh their memory of WWI, because history can sometimes be a great teacher.

In my opinion, it’s not a conspiracy theory to think that WWIII might happen.  It takes only one rouge state with many friends that starts the attack on another state with many friends to have a WWIII started.  In fact, it might just be about one state is winning an economic battle against another state, and the state that is losing in the economic warfare would begin to lash out with military prowess.  In today world, I’m pretty sure that two big powerful states that got friends may very well start a WWIII easily.  Perhaps, smaller states that are friends of the superpowers would push the superpowers into WWIII.  If a superpower fails to protect a smaller state or giving a smaller state a sense of security, I don’t think such a superpower would be able to recruit more friends into her alliance structure.  Sure, a WWIII may also start out with proxy wars in smaller states, but the fire of WWIII may eventually engulf the whole world.

We know wars such as WWI, WWII, and possible WWIII are wars that require traditional military structures.  By this I meant the battlefield will be littered with as many weapons and soldiers as possible.  Nonetheless, I think WWIII will also see nontraditional battlefields.  How come?  The future war is going to be a war of unrestricted warfare tactics and strategies.  From guerrilla tactics to massive force blitzkrieg, all is going to be carried out in WWIII.  Of course, all of that may not be even mattered if states with nuclear weapons decide to empty their nuclear arsenals as much and as fast as possible.

Knowing the truth of how ugly a future world war would be, why would humans even think about playing a zero sum game?  Perhaps, we are humans, but we still have some ape DNA strands within us still.  Only animals (e.g., ape, whale, bird, etc…) know the trap is around the corner and yet they still head right into it.  Let’s hope Einstein will be very wrong on how humans will resort to sticks and stones for regiments, because otherwise it would be insane.

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As Long Humans Won’t Go Insane, M.A.D. Still Matters For Some Time To Come

I’m a keyboard warrior, and here is my theory on what if U.S.A. and China would go to war against each other.  I’m not an expert in military weaponries and technologies, and so I’m not even going to try to be specific in details.  Read on to see what I got in mind.

Many people would think China would go to war with Philippines and Japan before they would attack U.S.A., and I think this is unlikely.  Only if Philippines and Japan provoke China in unbearable way, then China would attack these two countries.  Nonetheless, if I’m in charge of China, I would not think Philippines and Japan would dare to provoke and attack China first.  Thusly, I would only draw out secondary defensive plans, with care though, to address the what if Philippines and Japan attack China.  The primary plan which to address the priority would be going to war against U.S.A., because — at this point in human timeline — U.S.A. is the only foe in the world that would dare to truly challenge China right in the open, conventional or not.

Of course, in the between of everything, I don’t think China would be careless about little details, and so China would probably draw out plans to address diplomatic conundrums just so China could have an edge in world diplomacy.  Furthermore, China would want to make sure she knows who would side with U.S.A. when war truly breaks out between U.S.A. and herself.  Meanwhile, China is trying to scare Vietnam and her neighbors into submission, because this way China would get an idea of who will be against her for sure when war breaks out between U.S.A. and herself.  Vietnam is going to be capitulated between China and United States.  Simply put, Vietnam knows China will forever be her neighbor through geography, but she can use U.S.A. to push back against China when things get too ugly.  Other asian neighbors will think twice in challenging China, and so China would know of this too.

Russia would love to see China and U.S.A. go to war, because Russia wants to see two tigers on a mountain killing each other as she waits for her turn to swoop down and destroy both when the time and means are on her side.  Although it seems as if Russia is suffering consequences of economic sanctions and the turmoil in Ukraine, but Russia got time on her side to just wait things out.  Meanwhile, Russia is cozying up with China to leverage against U.S.A. and Europe in terms of military, diplomacy, energy, and economy.  Moreover, Russia would throw oil into the fire to flame things up between U.S.A. and China.  Thus, we will see Russia and China will strike even more deals in weapons, military, economics, and whatnot.

Europe is facing economic turmoils in several parts of her region.  I think China, Russia, and United States are befriending Europe on the surface but taking advantages of her underneath the surface.  After all, who could let go a bargain/deal or a momentous advantage in whatever, right?  Thus, we will see China, Russia, and the United States to partly be helpful but also partly be very unhelpful toward European countries in general.  Nonetheless, it’s possible that there are several European countries that aren’t expendable for military strategical reasons, thus we would see China, Russia and the United States fight for European friendships in this specific situation.  What military strategic reasons?  Don’t ask me, because Europe is a big place too, and so it’s obvious that Europe will have a role to play if a war between China and United States breaks out.

U.S.A. is trying to have her economy recovers from the recent financial crisis in 2008.  The recovery in the United States is truly slow, and so the United States does have her hands tie behind her back.  As China increases her military expenditures, the United States compels to spend money on keeping her military edge even though her economy is still not recovering.  China got Russia to supply some military technologies, but China is probably spending untold amount of money in research and development to develop her own in-house military technologies that would give her an edge over her foes.  Obviously, United States faces a difficulty in scaring China nowadays, because China is way stronger in terms of military and economics.  Thus we have seen China becomes more assertive in pushing United States out of the Pacific.  This way, China is going to have her own Monroe doctrine in the 21st century.  Of course, if United States refuses to allow China to have her own Monroe doctrine, China would probably do whatever she can to push United States out of the Pacific regardless.

China also got a backup plan to make sure her country isn’t too relying on the Pacific for energy and whatnot.  This is why we are seeing China proposes the modern Silk Road development.  This means China is creating a land route for her energy and trades just so in case she can circumvent the United States’ possible actions in the Pacific.  For an example, the United States can use her carrier fleet to blockade China from doing her normal operations in the Pacific, and this would hamper China’s trades and energy imports.  The Silk Road is like one arrow shoots two birds at the same time.  On one hand the Silk Road will boost the regional economies and in longer term would also keep China’s economy strong, and on the other hand the Silk Road would allow China to develop a second route to circumvent the possible Pacific blockades from her foes.

I can go on, but I’m just a keyboard warrior, and so let me summarize things up.  I conclude that if the United States will not allow China to have her own Monroe doctrine, China would do just about anything to push the United States out of the Pacific regardless.  I don’t see how China would allow the United States to contain her as she soars higher and higher.  Meanwhile, the United States has her plate full, but she probably tries to contain China regardless.  This will lead to the faster development of China’s modern Silk Road.  Furthermore, we will see Russia and China team up even more closely.  In this way, China/Russia alliance will try to win even more friends.  With both powerful countries (i.e., China and Russia) together they are more convincing this way in winning friends.  Basically, China and Russia are trying hard to isolate the United States in all fronts before a real war would break out.  Of course, things won’t go as plan if the United States or China decide to back down for world peace.  Nonetheless, I don’t know if there is any will in either China or the United States for backing down.  Sure, we still got M.A.D. to prevent an all out war such as a new World War (i.e., WWIII), but humans are capable of going insane.