Predictions of A Near Future: A More Connected World, Less Racist, And More Prosperous

As countries around the world are trying harder to modernize and become more prosperous, the modernity will no longer be something the developed countries can keep secret.  As developing countries get wealthier, the more money these countries got to expand operations of all sorts.  Thus, the demands for a more connected world will become even more urgent.  I think any country which decides to shut-out the world as we’re moving into the future would become a perfect case study of how not understanding the real trend which could lead to a disaster on a national scale.

So, I mentioned that the urgency for a more connected world is very real, but why is it the case?

For an example, China is growing ever stronger and bigger, and historically no other country could achieve China’s scale of rapid growth in term of economic prowess in a short duration in history.  Furthermore, China can no longer depend only on a few big countries to supply Chinese economic thirst, and so China is planning to expand economic operations across the world through Belt Road initiative, going abroad strategy, building up Africa while extracting African minerals, and so forth.  Only through opening China’s economic doors wider, the Chinese could make their economy more resilient.

To achieve of opening up economic doors for more connectivity from outside-in and inside-out, the Chinese government is probably going to encourage the world to be even more connected.  In this way, the flow of money can fuel and keep the Chinese economy growing.  As the world is ever more connected and as long the Chinese production prowess is humming along strongly, China can export goods without slowing down too much.  As the Chinese people are getting wealthier, they are going to splurge their wealth abroad and at home, further fueling the flow of money within the connected world.

I think China understands that by helping developing poor neighbors and farther away countries, China can grow friends, respect, and business opportunities.  Wealthy friends can always have real money to splurge on your goods.  This will keep China’s export market strong.  Besides exporting goods, China is modernizing other branches such as technology, science, military, culture and so forth to keep China strong and China’s economy healthy.

Somewhat long, but China is one of a very good case to explain why the world is still going to be very connected, and this will probably be the case for a foreseeable future.  Not only China, but other developing countries are racing ahead to develop one’s own country, and so our future is all about being more connected to create more opportunities and more of sharing experiences for learning and advancing and innovating.

In such a world, supremacy is going to be a very hard thing to achieve.  It will be a much more competitive world.  Thus I predict that our future will be either very competitive or very lazy — because automation will out-compete humans, but this is another story within the whole mix all together.

I think we will continue to see big, powerful countries such as China, United States, Russia, and so forth dictate terms to the world in our competitive, hard to achieve supremacy future.  Nonetheless, these powerful countries won’t be able to supremely dictate terms in an ultimatum manner easily as we’re moving forward into the future.  More countries are going to be more prosperous, and so their demands and ambitions will grow too.  These countries won’t easily be swayed by supreme might, and these countries can try to play nice with China and Russia to fend off the United States’ aggressiveness or vice versa.

In a more connected world, I think it’s supremely stupid for any single entity to try to declare something as we’re supreme!  I predict China won’t announce to the world that they’re the baddest and strongest, but instead we will see a China which will use actions to demonstrate power while silently signaling that they’re the baddest and strongest.  So, in a way, I think China will try to achieve supreme without becoming a Hitler.  Thus, China will try to win more friends instead of invading them.

If you have heard something about the Chinese history, then you probably have heard of a tributary system that sometimes worked rather well for the ancient Chinese dynasties.  This tributary system might make a comeback.  Because, if the modern China becomes the baddest of us all, China might just as well modernize some of the features within a tributary system to achieve the Chinese futuristic ambitions.  I think the Chinese love to look back into what worked well within the Chinese, and non-Chinese histories to guide their ways toward the unknown future.  Thus, I don’t think China will repeat Hitler’s mistakes.

Through Belt Road Initiative, China will build more friends and grow a modern tributary system in the long run.  I don’t think the soon to be baddest China will declare supremacy but will try to encourage a more connected world to respect a stronger China.  A more connected world means any entity which tries to declare supremacy and go solo will face a very strong headwind.  Also, any entity which tries to look inward and ignore the connected world all together will face backwardness and isolation.

In a very connected world, the rest will rise, and any single entity which tries to use racism as a fuel for strength will face the utter destruction.  By this I mean a connected world will have a near zero tolerance for racism.  So, I think as the world gets ever more connected, whatever movement that promotes racism will become the next Hitler and will face a certain doom.  In a more connected world, racism will become the ideal of the cavemen.

I could be wrong about everything because in Hitler time the world had gotten to be quite connected and yet Hitler was able to use supreme ideology to recruit believers and enlarge his army.  If I’m not wrong Hitler believed in a pure race (i.e., his race), and he encouraged his army to eradicate Jewish people/faith.  In Hitler time, people got cars, radios, television, cruises, airplanes, telephones, and other modernities.  Thus, Hitler’s time was also a very connected world.  Still, as I mentioned previously, Hitler was able to promote racism and genocidal practices.

Basically, the future is very unpredictable, but I like to believe in facts.  The facts tell me that the second Hitler won’t have an easier time than the first to go to promote and achieve supremacy.  The facts tell me that racism would be an unwise thing to be promoted in the future.  Whoever practices racism will find only doom in the future!  Facts tell me that not everyone will be the winner of a future, but many will become ever more prosperous, that is if we know how to not let automation/AI ruins us all and use automation/AI as only the tool and not as our master.

 

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Nationalism Vs. Globalism, Where Does This Lead? Probably to a Nowhere!

Globalism seems to be getting a bad rap lately, because locally people are suffering from global competition.  Jobs from a global market either had already been moved to another part of the world in the name of efficiency in cost and whatnot or will be replaced by market elsewhere that is more competitive.  So, locally, people are not feeling good at all about global aspects.

We’re seeing many people try to promote local brand, local ideas, local culture, and local anything over anything global.  Of course, it’s not a bad thing to promote local culture, ideas and whatnot, because these things are essential for a local life-force.  Nonetheless, when we become too extreme in promoting local over global agenda, we may create an atmosphere that would lead to a road of violences and not of solutions.

Imagine how the Nazi or similar groups came about or will be created because of such extremism.  Basically, I believe that the Nazis were not only Hitler’s henchmen, but many of them were believing in a movement of a pure race mentality which believes in purity and superiority over other identities.  So, in Hitler’s time, if you’re a Jew, you would be considered the lowest scum of all scums on earth, thus Hitler did try to wipe out the entire Jewish identity from the planet earth.

The Nazi mentality would seem making sense for the Nazis, but on the outside most people would not agree, because such a movement promotes senseless killing and senseless violence.  Thus I think anything that is taking too extreme may do more harm than good.  So, in these days, many people are promoting local brands over global brands, and it’s not really a bad thing.  Nonetheless, I think we should do this on a scale that makes sense — by not overdoing it.  If not, we may promote a form of extremism that will only incite a bigger conflict eventually.

Imagine a scenario in which we would close off our border, stop trading with everyone else globally, and try to create a self-sustain nation in which we believe that would stop global competition and bring better economic prosperity for people within our nation — this looks a lot like North Korea now.  But we all know that North Korea isn’t doing very well economically for a very long time.  Actually, North Korea had been poor since the conception of its whole political body.

Just right next door, China, once was as poor as North Korea, but now this neighbor known as China has become the largest economy on earth in term of Purchasing Power Parity measure and many people suggest that China will become the largest economy on earth in nominal GDP term sooner than later.  The neighbors cannot be any differ in term of size and economic prowess, because the gap between the North Koreans and the Chinese seems to be the size of a galaxy — an exaggeration of course but relevant nonetheless.

China achieved all of their success not by closing down borders, stop trading, and try to be self-sustained like North Korea, but China opened and continues to open up just the right amount of space for foreign trades, investments, cooperations, and whatnot.  So, I think China did think about how to face the challenge of global competition before they opened up their economy just right which had allowed them to be where they are today.

For countries like the United States, we’re facing a challenge of cost efficiency, and so our products are more expensive to export.  Perhaps we should think about closing our door with just a right amount of space but leave the door open just wide enough to stem the outflow of jobs — creating enough breathing space for people within the country to survive and thrive and compete.

Nonetheless, such a solution is only for short term treatment, because in the future our technologies may be so disruptive that the technologies we will employ will take away all of our jobs.  When such thing occurs, no matter how many borders you close down, how many trades you stop from occurring will not be able to keep jobs at home.  So, the solution won’t be available in the basket of creating jobs for the people, but the solution would be in the basket of how to support a society in which people will no longer work for a living, on a global scale.

What is the solution?  At the moment, I don’t think any single solution would be satisfactory in answering the AI taking away jobs question, because we’re not actually suffering from a total domination from a machine overlord just yet.  Instead, we’re seeing machines slowly take away jobs from various people in various sectors.  Eventually though, the Artificial Intelligence would get so smart that it would take away most jobs from the people.

If AI is inevitably going to take away most of our jobs, we should steer the course of such a trend to benefit the humanity.  After all, we’re the humanity!  So, I suggest that we should employ smart machines to create the abundances that we need to free us all from basic necessaries, and this would allow us to focus on living better.  We then would probably question ourselves what would we do if the smart machines do all the jobs.

Will we become so bored and mindless that we rather die young than live too long?  Nonetheless, in the future we may have technologies that would extend our lifespan.  But there is a possibility in which we as the humanity as a whole would try to explore the next frontier which is the universe itself.  Maybe the smart machines would get us to be so free that we would venture out into the farthest space within the universe to explore and question not only our origin, but the universe itself — and have a better chance at doing this than ever before.

Anyway, after watching “Nationalism vs. globalism: the new political divide | Yuval Noah Harari” TED Talks video on YouTube, my brain starts to question a lot more about our future.  This brief essay is the result of my watching of this video.  The video is right after the break.  Enjoy!