Are We Living In A Warring States Period?

As the world becomes evermore connected, it begins to look like the historic dramas.  One of those historic dramas came easily to me was the Warring States period in ancient China.  Chaos was broken out for as long as two hundred and fifty something years, and many ancient folks were slain by the God of war (i.e., meaning deaths in wartime).  Nations in ancient China’s Warring States period were keened to spy and create wedges between each other for their nations were so connected through trades and wars.  Instead of finding peace for two hundred and fifty something years, through intimate connectivity they fought to the deaths for that long.  In the end, the ruler of Quin, who became the first emperor of unified ancient China, was able to provide peace for most parts throughout the Warring States as these states became a unified ancient China.  Nonetheless, China first emperor Shihuang-di ruled ancient unified China with absolute terror through his dictatorship style, and so right after his death his successors failed to retain a unified China, leading to the breakup of his dynasty and allowing the rise of Han dynasty.

The intricacies of the ancient connected Warring States in ancient China is somewhat reminding us how the world can be so connected today and yet peace is nowhere in sight, whatsoever.  In Ukraine, we have rebels versus the new government, dividing Ukraine up.  In the Middle East, ISIS is rising but their advance is temporary being stopped by U.S.A.’s bombings and whatnot.  Syria is still struggling with its rebels of many factions.  Protests have broken out throughout the world, one in Hong Kong, another in Ferguson, MO, and so forth.  Afghanistan and Egypt are not doing too well, and Afghanistan is like a fail state.  Ebola is spreading in Africa and slowly making its way toward the West.  Russia and United States are planning to be in each other’s way as much as possible, and each country is throwing out sanctions at the other country without much care for the consequences that will play out in the near future.

For an example, Russia is ordering France’s warships, but United States is against this and so France is capitulating between delivering and not delivering to Russia the ordered warships.  Russia is knowing quite well that it can build the warships if it wants to, but to drive the wedge between United States and France Russia decides to go ahead and pushing France to deliver the warships.  Meanwhile, Russia is carrying out an engagement with China so the wedding between the two countries may have a brighter future, thus Russia is signing all sorts of contracts with China, to the benefits of whom we may never know.  As Russia and China become ever closer, United States will have to face the possibility of losing even more influences throughout the world’s International Order.  Why?  China is the largest trading country in the world, surpassing the United States already; China demands whoever wants to do trade with China needs to swap Yuan and not of Dollar.  This could mean the Dollar’s world influence begins to wane slowly.  Meanwhile, Russia is also one of the largest energy trading countries which demands others to trade not in Dollar whenever it’s possible, and this further the waning of the Dollar’s world influence.

Russia is dangerous to the United States as this country can persuade other energy trading countries to begin to move away from using Dollar for trade and reserve accounts.  The eroding of the Dollar’s world influence will be hard on the United States in a big way.  The United States needs to print money to help the economy from sliding back into the atmosphere of 2009 (i.e., financial crisis of 2009), but if the Dollar is no longer valuable throughout the world the United States may have to pay a hefty premium on the interests that derive from the foreign borrowings.  Why?  Countries around the world may fear the inflation train in the United States cannot be stopped and the hyperinflation would kick in, thus devaluing the Dollar to the point of worthlessness.  If this situation to occur in a time that China and Russia are encouraging the world to use other currencies and not of Dollar, the United States may not be able to use the Dollar as a currency to barter and trade for whatever with the rest of the world.  Thus, printing more Dollar can only become pointless.  If the United States finds itself in such a situation, borrowing foreign countries’ money to help rebuild the economy within might not be wise as the interest rates would go through the roof.

Of course, if the United States has a vibrant economy with strong industrial base sectors such as manufacturing to back the economy up when hard time hits folks in the gut, then the United States can fair whatever weather quite well, regardless of how China and Russia want to move away from the Dollar.  Nonetheless, the United States doesn’t have much in term of manufacturing since manufacturing jobs and productions have been moving to other countries for awhile already.  Whether manufacturing jobs are moving to India, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and whatnot, I doubt that the United States can stop the trend of seeing manufacturing jobs from leaving the United States.  After all, the world is evermore connected, thus capitalism is fully functioning and working hard as always, providing greener pastures for cows to graze such as cheaper labor market, higher profit environment, less taxing environment and so on…

Since United States is not a weak country for the last 100 years or so if I’m not really wrong on the historic time quantity there, thus the United States still has options to turn the tide of favors back home.  Nonetheless, as the United States tries hard to win back the tide of favors, other countries are too hard at work to make sure things are going their ways.  With rising China, angrier Russia, and a worried United States, the world will see a much more chaotic future as these three powerful forces can demand the rest to capitulate in making decisions for a future as a whole.  A future according to whom we may ask though.  As a more connected world, we think we may see a more harmonious future, but instead we may see a more chaotic future, somewhat similarly scripting to one of those historic dramas.

 

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World Conflicts Are Not That Simple!

In this day and age, 21st Century to be exact, conflicts around the world are never going to be simple.  Heck, even in the ancient time, the conflicts then were not so simple.  Now, we have so many countries that are doing overlapping business, because there is so called a chain of supply this and that.  For an example, United States imports from China most, China relies on neighbors and far West for technology and raw materials to produce stuffs for United States, and countries such as Australia love to sell energy products to China to support the supply chains in China.  Obviously, the example I mentioned is to be simplistic, because China is not only exporting goods to United States, but China is exporting to the whole world at large.  United States is obviously not only importing from China, but United States is importing from the whole world at large.  Still, the whole world is importing from China most!  The last sentence does implicit a weakness of globalization.  It begs the question what if China’s supply chains are in trouble, what will the implications be for the world’s economics at large.  It’s not so simple to just say that my country will become self sufficient immediately.  Any country can’t just magically wave a wand in the air, and then the technology and infrastructure and various vocations of expertise — that take decades to build — suddenly and magically materialize for whatever production purposes.  The complexity of the world nowadays begs the question that even small conflict can put any country which depends on the world’s economics in a very uncomfortable position, especially in economics sense.

I think one thing people fail to realize is that nuclear factor is even more important as a war deterrent for world peace than ever before.  Although some of us probably have wished that humankind should have never been able to figure out the nuclear technology, thus nuclear would never have existed.  Nonetheless, such wish is rather foolish since nuclear age has been here for a while already.  This is why nuclear weapons have been employed by various countries for deterrent purposes.  Nuclear weapons are not a figment of the imagination for a long time already!!!  Countries that have nuclear weapons know this, thus these countries use nuclear weapons as war deterrent strategic maneuver.  It’s a very effective war deterrent strategy indeed!  With this knowledge, we can see that United States, China, India, Pakistan, Russia, UK, France, Israel, and North Korea cannot be invaded outright.  The big three countries that for sure cannot be invaded outright are United States, China, and Russia.  Why these three countries have the power to fully destabilize the world or prolong the world peace?  Simply put, their military, economic, and world influence mights ensure their power to dictate world order!  Smaller countries, with nuclear technology or not, cannot compete or go head to head with United States, China, and Russia.  Of course, there is always something that is not on people’s mind and yet will be the exception of whatever rigid order.  In today’s world balance, for United States, China, and Russia to go to war against one another, the exceptional culprit behind this global catastrophe would be a psychopath with powerful positions that can manipulate a country’s foreign policy.

Although the big three in the world will not wage war against one another outright, but they can definitely use their smaller allies to wage proxy wars.  This is why we, people with brain, know that small conflicts around the world might not be so simple.  I can safely assume that all conflicts nowadays are a sort of game for the big three to push and pull against one another, and so in the end of the day the winners will always be the big three!  In short term though, the players who gain something in whatever conflict that the big three are manipulating can also be said that they’re the winners, too.  Nonetheless, in the end of the day, they might not be the ultimate winners!  This is why, I think we, the people of the world, should be more informed, open minded, and less judgmental, and only in this way we can see the events that break out around the world with clearer sense.

In conclusion, United States, China, and Russia know they will not benefit in an all out war, but they’re more profitable in term of controlling the events of the world.  This is why I think the ongoing chaos in East and South China seas, Ukraine, and the Middle East are small events that will dictate the world influence of the big three!  In these events, the big three cannot claim their innocent!  Nonetheless, the big three are acting in their own interest, because the big three after all have to lookout for their own people.  It’s just unfortunate that the smaller players in the world stage have to be manipulated by the big three!  Of course, nobody knows how the world map will look like in the future, thus we can never say that the big three we have now will be the big three of 300 years later.  Remember Roman Empire?  Remember how big they were in ancient time?  If I’m not wrong, they’re no longer here since AD 476.  That’s a long time ago.  Let just say that, the big three are not invulnerable, but at the moment and years to come, these are the players that make the world spins.  At the moment, Ukraine crisis is just another event that the big three are positioning themselves for their own future!  Unfortunately, the West and Ukraine itself will have to be manipulated by the big three!  Russia is looking to gain the most in Ukraine crisis, and Russia does have the popular vote as Crimea’s people are voting for Russia.  China is not yet making a hard stand for Ukraine crisis since it’s playing a waiting game.  Meanwhile, United States is anxiously preventing Russia from annexing Crimea.  Who’s right?  Who’s wrong?  It’s hard to tell, because the big three are never innocent!  Nonetheless, I hope after Ukraine crisis, the world will be more peaceful, however Ukraine crisis will turn out to be!  Let’s not see someone is so stupid enough to push for World War III, OK?  As Albert Einstein had said something along this line, he knew we will have to use nuclear weapons in World War III, but he suggested that we might fight with sticks and stones in World War IV.  It’s a long conclusion, I know!

Peace Is A Fool, And Einstein Is Forever Wise

I’d just written another poetry, and this one is rather gloomy.  I hope whoever reads this won’t mind.

  • Peace could have been the only king in town,
  • but humankind decided chaos should be the alternative,
  • therefore we created swords to kill,
  • therefore we devised tortures to interrogate,
  • therefore we had heroes and villains.
  • Peace could have been the only voice in town,
  • but humankind detested a boring, quiet town,
  • therefore we started small wars to liven up the town,
  • therefore we propagandized to divide brother among brother,
  • therefore we stroke the beast of hatreds.
  • It was fine that peace was challenged by chaos,
  • as men only had stick and stones,
  • whence men got their sharp metal swords,
  • then peace thought that this was hell on earth,
  • men died in droves just so peace would lose the day.
  • Peace lost the grasp of earthly control,
  • and thought that things could not be worse,
  • how wrong could peace have been,
  • as that thought was completely put to shame by devious men,
  • they had abandoned their sharp metal swords for nuclear bombs.
  • Whence men got their sharp metal swords,
  • they did not hesitate to wage war with sharp pointed blades,
  • now they got their nuclear bombs,
  • peace would be naive to think that men would think otherwise,
  • peace would be naive to think men would be logical.
  • Among men there were few wise ones,
  • among wise ones there was Albert Einstein,
  • but he could no longer walk among the livings,
  • nonetheless, he was the father of nuclear bombs,
  • yet he had warned men might go from nuclear to stick and stones.
  • Only the fools would doubt the wise men’s words,
  • therefore I would not doubt Einstein’s sticks and stones prediction,
  • and so you should not too,
  • but peace would be peace,
  • continually be naive for thinking that chaos could be contained in a nuclear age.
  • Whence peace got too comfortable,
  • it was when wars broke out,
  • chaos ran amuck,
  • men died in droves,
  • just so peace would remember how evil chaos was.
  • Fools with name such as Hitler came upon the scene,
  • just to show how wrong peace could be,
  • and yet peace would never learn,
  • continually, naively, went about without a care,
  • to think that chaos was only a conspirator.
  • If chaos was only merely a conspirator,
  • peace would forever be the only king of the town,
  • nonetheless, chaos had proven that peace was merely a fool,
  • to believe the lies chaos spew,
  • it was on you peace, and so chaos ruled.
  • Einstein’s words might be buried among the ruins,
  • but whence men got only sticks and stones,
  • it would be too late to turn back time,
  • for time would not have any patience, ever,
  • time would not wait on peace to rein in chaos.
  • Peace is a fool,
  • and Einstein is forever wise!