What I Think About China Influence For Businesses And Consumers In The World; Just Rehashing What We Already Know, Really!

As China’s economy and military might grow ever stronger, what I think about China Influence for businesses and consumers in the world?  According to Wikipedia’s “Demographics of China” article, based on 2012 census China’s population is at 1,344,130,000.  I think it’s somewhat bigger now since we’re in 2013.  Nonetheless, 2012 census is recent enough, and so we have the idea how big the population there is in China.  With such a big population, China has a humongous human capital potential.  Nonetheless, if China’s economy has yet to grow to where it’s today already, I don’t think China’s humongous human capital potential can be a positive force just yet for China.  We know this isn’t the case!  In fact, we know that China’s economy is continuing to grow at a really fast pace while the world’s economy is still on life support.  No wonder that we see China Influence is growing everywhere in the world.

According to RT’s “China leaves behind the US as world’s leading trade partner” article, since 2011 China is topping the United States in term of who has more trading partners in the world.  According to RT’s article I just mentioned, in 2011, China traded with 124 countries, but the United States could only trade with 76.  Before 2011, it was the United States that led the trading pacts, but China overtook the United States since 2011.  This fact is still true today I suppose since there isn’t any newer facts/news that corroborate otherwise.  Obviously, who has more trade partners will have more saying in world trade matters.  In our recent time, I guess China would be the one who can dictate the direction of the world in term of trading.

As China Influence grows in trading, China can dictate more trading terms.  For an example, if I’m China, I would dictate how I would like to pay for my import and get payment for my export.  It seems that China is already doing this!  If I’m not wrong, I’ve been hearing that China has signed some sorts of trading agreements with certain trade partners to have trades to be made in Yuan (Chinese currency) and not in Dollar (U.S.A. currency).  I think China is doing this to protect herself from having to hold too much dollars.  Also, China is being pressured by United States to have the Yuan appreciates, therefore China is hedging to have more Yuan(s) on hand as the Yuan is going to appreciate in value anyway.  Holding stronger Yuan(s) in China’s whatever accounts will allow China to become wealthier and have stronger ability to purchase whatever abroad and fund whatever locally better than ever before.  With the one example above, how China dictate trades to be made in Yuan, we can see China Influence in trading is very powerful, because China can dictate trading terms in many many more ways and on China’s own terms.

As China is trying to grow even more powerful in all aspects, China is also keen on having their population to spend more.  This way, China too has the influence in importing.  I think it’s natural for Chinese to import more since they’re getting wealthier by the day; therefore, whatever China does to stimulate this sort of behavior, China will see Chinese consumers open up their wallets easier.  Nonetheless, Chinese are fanatic savers, therefore it’s in their DNA to spend wisely, and so we might not see Chinese go crazy over spending.  Still, I think as time progresses and as Chinese grow wealthier by the day, their population has to import more and more and spend more and more.  With a billion plus of people, China will dominate world import even though only a quarter of Chinese population go on spending spree the Chinese fanatic saving way.

As China dominate world import, she can influence the world import greatly.  She can dictate how the world business would be ran.  Fictitiously, for an example, she could make it clear that Chinese people love leather, therefore whatever leather businesses in the world would be greatly benefited in term of exporting.  With importing power/influence, China can wield importing trade terms in her favor.

Combining export and import influences, China is a force to be reckoned with in term of world trade matters.  We know that with great power comes great responsibility, if you don’t mind I borrow this phrase from Spider-Man movie.  Basically, I’m just trying to hint that China can use her China Influence just like how United States have had been doing for awhile now.  China is different though!  Albeit, some world trade interests might converge, China has different culture(s) and interests.  China is on the rise, therefore she wants to be going up and up and just a lot more of going up.  Anything else would be against her interests.  If I’m China, I would do the same!  This is why we’re seeing China is spending more for her military.  This isn’t a surprise but logical, because she needs to build up her military foundation, innovation, structure, strategy, and whatever military to protect her economic might.  Will this ultimately collide with United States’ overall economic/military grand strategy?  The answer is obvious to whoever is willing to take a closer look, right?

People might argue that China does not have friends, because people are using the traditional views that they have had of China.  I think these people aren’t keeping up with time.  Let be logical, whoever has the money has the influence and friends.  This is fact for most of the time in the real world!!!  It cannot be denied, because we’re not watching unfolding events in a movie or a fairy tale!  I think China will make more friends than ever before even though there are those South China Sea islands + land + water + resources disputes and East China Sea dispute.  I don’t pretend that I follow enough about these China Sea’s disputes to know enough details on them, and so I won’t talk about China Sea’s issues.  Instead, I just want to emphasize that China isn’t so aggressive in China Sea to the point that she is starting a war.  Instead, I think China will use her so called China Influence to influence the outcomes of China Sea’s disputes.  I think China will get what she wants in the end, because either you start a war with China or be succumbed under China Influence.  I know in this day and age, starting a traditional war isn’t something that we can just underestimate, and China isn’t military weak!  You can argue about this, but the truth is that who is in their right mind to start a war with China and/or Russia in a nuclear age?  No need to say more, because China is nuclear capable!!!

In summary, I think as we’re moving ahead, China Influence will grow ever stronger, and she can dictate world matters in her own terms a lot more.  It’s all depending on how aggressive she will be!  Furthermore, we know nobody is crazy enough to go to war against China, unless craziness will actually happen!!!  China Influence can dictate how businesses and consumers around the world behave, because it’s obvious that with money, power, and influence she can persuade world trade matters to favor her trade terms.  Yes, I don’t talk much about China’s internal issues such as pollution and political dissents, and I’m doing this on purpose.  How come?  We all know that all countries have some sorts of internal issues, but not that many internal issues can be a death knell to a country’s health.  Furthermore, it’s all depending on how a country progresses in economics, military, policy, and world influence that allows such a country to weather the storms, whether that be internal or external issues.  China is looking strong in economics, military, policy, and world influence, therefore I don’t see how China cannot weather both internal and external issues.  Of course, I cannot be absolutely right, because I don’t know much.  Nonetheless, I think my intuition tells me that China is going to have a hell lot of fun in influencing the world’s businesses and consumers for a long time to come.

Sources:

Besides Personal Issues, Many Of Us Now May Face A Major War If North Korea Tension Won’t Calm Down!

Original caption: "Flying under radar con...

Original caption: “Flying under radar control with a B-66 Destroyer, Air Force F-105 Thunderchief pilots bomb a military target through low clouds over the southern panhandle of North Viet Nam. June 14, 1966.” (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As the world is getting weirder by the day, I wonder what weirdness the next morning will bring.  Many European economies that are in Euro zone are  looking like they are about to go supernova all the time; U.S. economy is not yet in a recovery and sort of stagnating; Syria is still in a deep civil war with proxy states choose sides (uttering chaos); elsewhere in the world I bet there are some conflicts that could be troubled as well, and so nobody is preparing for another conflict unless insanity creeps in.  Nonetheless, North Korea is threatening United States and South Korea.  Nonetheless, the West too is voicing and reacting louder than necessary, therefore things can get out of hand.  Russia joined in to warn all sides need to take a step back or things might get out of hand.  China had said something along the border of which Russia had voiced, but in a more neutral tone.  Surprisingly, China actually massed troops near North Korea’s border.  So, what is really going on folks?

My fear is that the West and North Korea war brinkmanships may get out of hand, and this will actually pull in more unwanted players than any side has ever anticipated.  No one likes to be threatened by anyone or by any mean.  Nonetheless, should we go to war for threats?  I think we should go to war only when an aggressor aggressively makes the first push, because war means there isn’t any real solution to attaining peace.  Furthermore, the days of small wars and bilateral wars had mostly been extinct.  Nowadays, any conflict can threaten to bring on multilateral conflict/war.  Just take a look at North Korea tension with the West as an example, one could see if the tension becomes more than just talk, not only the United States and her allies have to worry about North Korea’s actions, but China and her allies too have to worry about the outcome of North Korea conflict.

For sure, China would not want a destabilized North Korea.  China has big interest in keeping things to stay peaceful as they’re building their economy still, and a destabilized North Korea might make China’s neighbors to choose side.  When China’s neighbors choose side, trading between China and her neighbors might become destabilized too.  Also, I think China would not be happy if North Korea be absorbed by South Korea, because American troops then can border China in huge number.  Obviously, China is still a big trading partner of the United States, but I don’t think China likes the prospect of seeing American troops station near her border.  China is very keen on her Sun Tzu’s encirclement tactic, and the last thing China wants to see is to have herself to be contained and encircled by United States militarily, geopolitically, and economically.  I think, so far United States has the upper hand in encircled China militarily, but China has a stronger economy which is growing by the days.

I’m too young to have any real experience of Việt Nam war, because I only got to know of Việt Nam war through family accounts and history books, videos, and so on.  Nonetheless, what we know concretely is that North Vietnamese won the war over the South Vietnamese.  The South Vietnamese were Cộng Hoà, and North Vietnamese were Việt Cộng.  The Việt Nam war aftermath had North Vietnamese united and annexed the South Việt Nam with North Việt Nam as one, because North Vietnamese won the war after Americans pulled out (i.e., stopped the supports for the South Vietnamese).  During this time, China and Russia were no longer worried about the West involvement in Việt Nam.  Nonetheless, it was hard to say that China and Việt Nam became closer friends since Việt Nam was then invaded by China.  According to Wikipedia’s “Sino-Vietnamese War” article, China did that to warn Russia to back off on exerting influences into Southeast Asia.  Nonetheless, before China’s Việt Nam invasion, China and Russia were on the same page which to push the Americans out of Việt Nam.  They both achieved that, and the result was a united Việt Nam, under the ruling of the North Vietnamese.

When I look at Việt Nam war, I feel that I can understand North Korea conflict better.  How come?  First, both North Korea and Việt Nam border China.  Second, both North Korea and Việt Nam have had  or had a division among brothers, but Việt Nam’s north and south territories had already officially annexed as one.  North Vietnamese were also the enemies of the United States and vice versa.  Nonetheless, North Vietnamese are now ruling one Việt Nam, therefore the conflict between Việt Nam and the United States is no longer a conflict.  Furthermore, it seems that lately the United States is wooing Việt Nam ever closer to her side, to antagonize China.  North Korea is a different story, because she considered herself to be at war with the United States and South Korea.  As now, North Korea seems to have a more capable defensive and offensive capabilities than what the North Việt Nam once had (i.e., now it’s only Việt Nam).  Back then, China and Russia poured out a lot of efforts to help North Việt Nam secured South Việt Nam, and so North Việt Nam had successfully annexed South Việt Nam with North Việt Nam, making Việt Nam a unified country now.  Will the history to be repeated in North Korea?

Another Việt Nam war (figure of speech but with deep meaning) is definitely going to be very costly for the United States.  Unless, the United States think the last Việt Nam war was a joke, then by all means the United States can bomb North Korea.  Nonetheless, I think North Korea tension isn’t a simple one, and I fear it might be worse than the Việt Nam war.  After all, let be fair, everyone has their own interest, including North Korea.  I think a North Korea tension might become very costly for many sides, United States, China, and others.  In the past, North Việt Nam (i.e., now it’s only one Việt Nam) wasn’t a nuclear power, but today North Korea is a nuclear power.  So, North Korea tension can definitely be even more complicated than the Việt Nam war if all sides do not manage this so called, North Korean tension, carefully.

I’m not biased toward any side, but I’m worry about the possible devastating costs of a real Korean war.  Aside from money/economic costs, lot and lot of human lives will be at stake if a real Korean war breaks out.  I pray that there won’t be one.  I pray that North Korea will become peaceful as the South Korea.  A peaceful North Korea will keep the status quo, because I think the status quo is definitely better than an all out Korean war!  What do you think?

Smells And Sounds Like A Conspiracy, But One World Government Believers Might See China As A Great Experiment, Right?

Flag of the People's Republic of China

Flag of the People’s Republic of China (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If you have been keeping record on how China is doing in terms of economics, social progress, politics, and much more, then you probably have already had some ideas of how big China has became in terms of world influences and sheer numbers in GDP, PMI, and so on.  If China doesn’t have 1.4 or so billion people, then managing China’s progress would be much easier for the who so well known as the leaders.  Unfortunately for China, she has such a huge population, therefore everything will be a challenge.  She isn’t Singapore!  Singapore only has around 5.5 million people in term of population.  And yes, I’ve heard Singapore is a rich rich country (in term of wealth per individuals or GDP per capita).  Last I checked with Wikipedia (source:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita), Singapore’s GDP per capita was 60,688 dollars per year.  Anyhow, Singapore is probably a lot easier to be managed than China as her population is rather very small, and I think most people will agree with me on this!

I’ve gotten very curious about China lately as she grows very big on world stage.  Plus, her conflict against Japan over Senkaku/Diaoyu island is overwhelming the world at the moment, and especially the United States.  I don’t think the United States wants to see China and Japan go to war, because both countries matter to United States in term of economic related activities.  Here is a quick take on this, China supplies United States with almost seemingly everything that can be bought in Walmart and other major retailers.  Furthermore, China also is United State’s biggest lender (in term of buying up U.S. treasury bonds).  China surpassed Japan in 2012 in term of holding the largest amount of U.S. treasury bonds (source:  http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt). Nonetheless, Japan is also a major lender to the United States.  Japan too has nearly as much as China in term of holding U.S. treasury bonds.  Furthermore, Japan has been an important ally for the United States in Asia.  As now Asia has became the largest contributor to world’s GDP, in the time in which China and Japan are also the largest economies in Asia (i.e., at this point in time China is second in the world and Japan is third), anything other than a frequent dispute between China and Japan would do great harm for the world economy.  Furthermore, if United States does not show strong support for Japan, the United States will not be able to instill great trust for potential Asian partners.  After all, Asia is growing, and so there are lot of money to be made there.  Anyhow, I’ve somewhat digress.

My point is that if China can manage her economy very well and instill great social progress in her society, by her sheer size in everything I think China will come to some people’s mind in term of making a reference in how to run a large country.  Does this mean for whoever wishes to see one world government will like to think China progress as a great experiment of the century?  By the way, when the term one world government is being used, conspiracy will come to mind for most people.  Nonetheless, I don’t think we should just ignore the possibility that there are folks who like to think this way too.  For an example, in 1999 many European countries began to use the same currency, and this has now led to less clear who has been in charged of whose sovereignty.  After all, money is power and then much more…  My point is that a sort of throw away our sovereignty experiment has already been done by Europe!  Unfortunately, Europe contains too many countries that are not so willingly to give up their sovereignty easily, and so their confusion about power and money and responsibilities that have led to their weakening economies.  Greece is suffocating with debts.  They, the so called economic experts, think Spain, Italy, and France may also face similar situations to Greece.

Lately, I’ve heard people think China will have a real estate bubble just like in the United States in 2007, because various mainstream news organizations are reporting that China has many emptied buildings that just sit there, swaying in the wind.  I think it’s somewhat naive for us to think China doesn’t learn the real estate collapse mistake from the United States.  Of course, United States was affected by bad suprime loans and excessive risky derivatives that were bet against the real estate market in general, therefore further complications such as a weakened economy — which stressed out by high consumer debts, low productivities in numerous core market sectors that contributed to higher job losses, outsourced jobs had only exacerbated the job loss problem, and other major problems — pushed the United States economy over the edge in 2007.  So, it wasn’t just simply a real estate bubble that had collapsed the United States economy in 2007.  Instead of the general belief, I think many large problems that existed before the wreck of real estate market that had come together with the burst of the real estate that had greatly destroyed the United States economy in 2007.  With this in mind, China is probably looking at the United States and evaluating her great mistake.  China is learning that United States economy was driving growth under the influence of high debts in general.  I think China is avoiding this mistake by not wanting to have her people go into debts.  As now, I’ve heard that Chinese are buying up real estates, but they don’t buy with debts such as loans.  Instead, Chinese people either pool money together as a group of family or partners of some sorts and then they would buy real estates this way.  This means China real estate growth isn’t driving by debts.  So, I don’t see how Chinese real estate bubble burst would affect Chinese consumers much.  Instead, if Chinese real estate bubble burst, Chinese new home owners will find great bargains everywhere.  On the negative side, bad real estate investments and strategy from builders might create a burst in the commercial sectors.  After all, the building and growing of real estate rely on commodity sectors and other related market sectors such as steel for commercial buildings.  This means, when real estate bubble bursts, many other commodity sectors and related sectors will be greatly affected.  Then again, China isn’t United States, because her government has more says over her economy than how it’s in the United States.  This is why China’s real estate bubble might not be easily be bursted, if there is any bubble at all.  Then again, if her government does not know how to handle a possible real estate bubble burst in regarding to bad investments and bad real estate strategic developments, then her economy might not fair so well.  Nonetheless, we cannot foretell the future, therefore nobody will know if China is following the United State’s footstep or not.  It will just be a guess work!

In summary, I think China’s economic boom is very interesting.  Before China became so huge in the world stage, China was merely a blip in news headlines of those days.  Now, Chinese related events are making big headlines everyday.  This is why the development of China has caught my attention greatly.  I bet there are many many people who either hate or respect China, because China’s economic boom has greatly affected how the world economies behave.  In the United States, we are concerning that more jobs will be outsourced to China and India.  We sometimes wonder when those jobs will come back to the United States.  I fear our wish might just be merely that, a wish.  Even if China’s economy is growing to a point that wages and other costs are no longer world competitive, China can simply ship their unwanted jobs to Africa and poorer Asian countries.  After all, China does have great relationship with Africa continent.  Their relationship will make it easy for China to iron out deals over whatever.  Whatever?  Well, let say many countries in Africa, even with the fews that are wealthy (e.g., South Africa, Gabon, etc…), might have a lot to offer such as resources and cheap labors.  Let me simply say, whether China is a great experiment for one world government or an accident of great economic boom or whatever, China is definitely a country that will showcase a lot of achievements and challenges for some time to come.  Furthermore, the world cannot ignore China anymore as she is not only an economic powerhouse for the world, but she is also now striving hard to obtain a futuristic military might. This means, she is willing to protect her economic veins with her military might when provocations arise.  So, I guess whoever underestimates China might see their demise.  Whether one respects China or not, it doesn’t matter, but underestimating China or provoking China unwisely might not be a very wise thing to do.  Because, she is no longer a blip in a world driven agenda.

Old Men Talk World Economy, I Like It!

Economy

Economy (Photo credit: CassadeyFedel)

When people often talk about world economy, polarized elements of politics tend to creep into the talk and demand something to be politicized.  This often creates angst among the participants of the talk.  Furthermore, a participant which is against or for the political point of view will definitely not compromise his or her position on the matter, therefore nothing will be resolved or be persuaded.  This is why I often hate to listen only to one side of the story or politicize anything, because it’s a lot easier for me to just sit back and do the listening and watching of whatever that is being politicized, whether such a matter is deserving such a merit or not is another story altogether.  With this in mind though, matters such as world economy that are highly politicized and being debated often cannot be left out of whatever political talk easily even if one does not want to touch the political side of the matters.  Perhaps, these matters are so important to the livelihood of each earthly citizen.  (Or in another way to put this, “It’s the economy, stupid!”)

Even more now than ever before, matters such as the world economy or an economy which is important to the world are evermore very much the concerns of each earthly citizen or I should say the citizen of the world.  How come?  To say the least, besides economic policies, technology matters!  You might think I’ve digressed, but perhaps I just have done so by a little bit.  How so that technology matters when we’re talking about economics?  Continuing below…

The world of today has become so small in term of how we’re able to communicate so clearly and so effectively even though there are oceans that separate several continents.  Technology has allowed and will improve and will continue to allow information, transportations, and other technological important mediums to flow across the world effectively unless a country’s government is hampering these opportunities, therefore the information age and several other obvious technologies such as advanced transportations are now effectively shrinking the world to a point of obvious (i.e., small).  In short, the advancing of technology helps make globalization realizes easier.

With advanced developments in technology in general, whether the progress is made in the information or transportation or whatever technological sector, the positive progresses of these developments have had effectively changed how the world of today is operating.  Furthermore, these so called positive progresses in technology effectively change the economic progress and general attitude of each country and the citizens of a particular country and the world.  I have to say though, these positive progresses of technology might be viewed as negative effects for parts of the world, because several parts of the world see their economy declines and correlate that progresses have been made in technology but citizen livelihoods have not been improved.  Perhaps, technology in general is just a tool among the tools in a tool box?  Should the reform of economic policy and other policies might make more sense in the argument of bad economics?

In a sense, the main point I want to make within this blog post is that it’s very hard to not politicize matters such as the economy of a country or the economy of the world in general, but with effort one can at least try to make it’s a friendly debate when such a topic would arise.  Specifically though for this blog post, I want to emphasize on why economy matters.  After all, economy matters a lot as it is the lifeblood of the livelihood of the citizens that are being supported by a particular economy.

It’s easy to say that economy matters, but do we really understand why there are so many bad economies have came to light and will come to light in our time?  And this to be said is not to compare with other times of our complete history, whether our history is complete or not is another story altogether.  Of course, I’m not an expert on the economy matters at all, therefore I like to embed some very interesting videos which may be able to spill some light onto our contemporary economic matters.  If you enjoy watching old men talking about economic matters, then by all means the videos right after the break might be somethings that you are going to be pleased with.  Enjoy them videos!!!

Lightroom 4 Photo Fun – Genghis Khan Exhibition

I went to Fernbank Natural History Museum for Genghis Khan exhibition.  It was great!  At Fernbank I took many great pictures of Genghis Khan exhibition.  When I got back I used Lightroom 4 to retouch the photos.  Within this blog post, you won’t see the original photos but just the retouched ones.  There are too many of them for me to post the original and the retouched ones together.  For your information, I used two different cameras to take these shots.  Some of the photos were taken with Sony DSC-TX10 and the others were taken with iPhone 5 camera.  Anyhow, please enjoy the photos right after the break.

Lightroom 4 Photo Fun – Vietnamese Desserts And Foods

Know anything about Vietnamese foods?  Well, I eat many of them, but to my chagrin I’m no expert in Vietnamese foods.  If a Vietnamese food store fails to label their foods, I might be fooled by such arrangement.  Indeed, I know some Vietnamese food stores are doing exactly this.  Luckily, the Vietnamese food store I visited yesterday got me covered with the food labels.  Anyhow, I took some photos with iPhone 5 and retouched them with Lightroom 4, and you can check out the results right after the break.  Enjoy!!!