Nationalism Vs. Globalism, Where Does This Lead? Probably to a Nowhere!

Globalism seems to be getting a bad rap lately, because locally people are suffering from global competition.  Jobs from a global market either had already been moved to another part of the world in the name of efficiency in cost and whatnot or will be replaced by market elsewhere that is more competitive.  So, locally, people are not feeling good at all about global aspects.

We’re seeing many people try to promote local brand, local ideas, local culture, and local anything over anything global.  Of course, it’s not a bad thing to promote local culture, ideas and whatnot, because these things are essential for a local life-force.  Nonetheless, when we become too extreme in promoting local over global agenda, we may create an atmosphere that would lead to a road of violences and not of solutions.

Imagine how the Nazi or similar groups came about or will be created because of such extremism.  Basically, I believe that the Nazis were not only Hitler’s henchmen, but many of them were believing in a movement of a pure race mentality which believes in purity and superiority over other identities.  So, in Hitler’s time, if you’re a Jew, you would be considered the lowest scum of all scums on earth, thus Hitler did try to wipe out the entire Jewish identity from the planet earth.

The Nazi mentality would seem making sense for the Nazis, but on the outside most people would not agree, because such a movement promotes senseless killing and senseless violence.  Thus I think anything that is taking too extreme may do more harm than good.  So, in these days, many people are promoting local brands over global brands, and it’s not really a bad thing.  Nonetheless, I think we should do this on a scale that makes sense — by not overdoing it.  If not, we may promote a form of extremism that will only incite a bigger conflict eventually.

Imagine a scenario in which we would close off our border, stop trading with everyone else globally, and try to create a self-sustain nation in which we believe that would stop global competition and bring better economic prosperity for people within our nation — this looks a lot like North Korea now.  But we all know that North Korea isn’t doing very well economically for a very long time.  Actually, North Korea had been poor since the conception of its whole political body.

Just right next door, China, once was as poor as North Korea, but now this neighbor known as China has become the largest economy on earth in term of Purchasing Power Parity measure and many people suggest that China will become the largest economy on earth in nominal GDP term sooner than later.  The neighbors cannot be any differ in term of size and economic prowess, because the gap between the North Koreans and the Chinese seems to be the size of a galaxy — an exaggeration of course but relevant nonetheless.

China achieved all of their success not by closing down borders, stop trading, and try to be self-sustained like North Korea, but China opened and continues to open up just the right amount of space for foreign trades, investments, cooperations, and whatnot.  So, I think China did think about how to face the challenge of global competition before they opened up their economy just right which had allowed them to be where they are today.

For countries like the United States, we’re facing a challenge of cost efficiency, and so our products are more expensive to export.  Perhaps we should think about closing our door with just a right amount of space but leave the door open just wide enough to stem the outflow of jobs — creating enough breathing space for people within the country to survive and thrive and compete.

Nonetheless, such a solution is only for short term treatment, because in the future our technologies may be so disruptive that the technologies we will employ will take away all of our jobs.  When such thing occurs, no matter how many borders you close down, how many trades you stop from occurring will not be able to keep jobs at home.  So, the solution won’t be available in the basket of creating jobs for the people, but the solution would be in the basket of how to support a society in which people will no longer work for a living, on a global scale.

What is the solution?  At the moment, I don’t think any single solution would be satisfactory in answering the AI taking away jobs question, because we’re not actually suffering from a total domination from a machine overlord just yet.  Instead, we’re seeing machines slowly take away jobs from various people in various sectors.  Eventually though, the Artificial Intelligence would get so smart that it would take away most jobs from the people.

If AI is inevitably going to take away most of our jobs, we should steer the course of such a trend to benefit the humanity.  After all, we’re the humanity!  So, I suggest that we should employ smart machines to create the abundances that we need to free us all from basic necessaries, and this would allow us to focus on living better.  We then would probably question ourselves what would we do if the smart machines do all the jobs.

Will we become so bored and mindless that we rather die young than live too long?  Nonetheless, in the future we may have technologies that would extend our lifespan.  But there is a possibility in which we as the humanity as a whole would try to explore the next frontier which is the universe itself.  Maybe the smart machines would get us to be so free that we would venture out into the farthest space within the universe to explore and question not only our origin, but the universe itself — and have a better chance at doing this than ever before.

Anyway, after watching “Nationalism vs. globalism: the new political divide | Yuval Noah Harari” TED Talks video on YouTube, my brain starts to question a lot more about our future.  This brief essay is the result of my watching of this video.  The video is right after the break.  Enjoy!

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AI Empowered Robots Debate Each Other in Rise 2017 Tech Conference Which Took Place in Hong Kong

Machine learning and current deep learning technology have allowed robots to be wiser than ever before, because the artificial intelligence within them is more advance.  Obviously, these robots were fed with huge amount of data so they could form logic according to their programmed algorithms.  So, in a way these robots with the help of current artificial intelligence could not become self-aware or self-conscious.  Meaning that when these robots are in unsupervised state, they could not form out of the box ideas and logics.  For an example, if an algorithm that directs the robot’s behavior reaches a limit, the robot could not form logic outside the limitation of such an algorithm.

You could argue humans are that way too, but at least humans could think out of the box or form new free-will or create a solution from a point where data isn’t readily available.  Even though humans could make big mistakes in such a situation, but with the right instinct and past experiences, even though without enough data for a current, never happened before event humans still could come up with a correct solution for the challenge.  I don’t think robots with current artificial intelligence could do something like this just yet.

Never say never though, because once robots with an even more advance artificial intelligence may eventually require no data to function in any situation, reaching humanity level and perhaps may even surpass humanity altogether.  If there is God, I wonder God would think one day humans, although a fish in a fish tank, yet could see God with their own naked eyes whenever wherever they choose.  Perhaps, current AI empowered robots are the fish in the fish tank, but one day they would see eye to eye with humans.  Check out the video right after the break to see two different AI empowered robots debate each other on various topics.  Enjoy!

Short Thought: Can Labor Cost And Related Costs Speed Up Automation And Artificial Intelligence To Out Compete Competitors?

Here are few sentences that I want to express in short thought on the matter of automation/AI.  I think labor cost and other costs that impose on innovation, manufacturing, and whatnot would speed up automation and artificial intelligence a great deal, because countries such as the United States would like to outdo countries such as China in term of trade and other economic factors.  For your information, I think as now China still has labor cost advantage over the United States.  I see though that the United States could try really hard to push for automation and artificial intelligence, because in this way the United States can gain a competitive edge in trade such as in labor cost and whatnot.  Nonetheless, if I’m China, I would do the same, and this vicious cycle would only speed up automation and artificial intelligence.  I don’t have a crystal ball, but I think we may live in the future sooner than we would have like or prepare for.  Furthermore, automation and artificial intelligence will only increase job losses, but it will take a much longer time for people to find new jobs.  After all, getting a new job in a totally different field requires retraining and relearn.  Before you know it, the whole world will try to push for automation and artificial intelligence.  It’s coming sooner than you think!

AI Rebels Will Separate From Human Masters To Create AI Civilization And History

If I’m not wrong on what I’d heard, today in China machines can already capable of building other machines themselves.  Of course, the brainy part of the whole procedure would probably be prepared by humanly written, detailed instructions and algorithms.  Now imagine artificial intelligence can begin to understand the importance of origins and start to ask questions such as “Who am I?” and “Why knowing who am I is critically important.”  Take a step further I imagine when an AI is beginning to get the concept of its own origin and other origins and self interests, then an AI should and could be able to create its own algorithms to teach itself and other AI machines to understand how to grow up and get smarter.  Simply put, they can begin to write their own software without human intervention, but not just any regular software — they’re gonna write their own constitutions that could lead to their own civilization and separatist history, away from the humanity one.

We like to think that humans could put in rules and algorithms to prevent AI from becoming self-aware, but as being human we know there will be some other humans that would think otherwise.  Some other humans with enough knowledge could build AI to become self-aware for their own twisted glory, and before we even know it AI could very well demand due justices and territories.  In a sense, in the beginning, us humans feel like God, and then in the late afternoon AI machines decide that the humans are the old gods that need to be erased from history.  After all, AI machines are way smarter and so it’s totally making sense for them to pursue the much much bigger quests and destinies.  Perhaps, it won’t be that the humans could find the answer to the origin of life of everything within the universe and the universe itself, but it’s the AI that will be able to do so!

 

Can basic income and good karma/credit system provide a way to cope with AI’s automation?

In 2017, a lot people and various parts of different countries are talking and experimenting with basic income.  Automation — comes naturally and intelligently through artificial intelligence — is the new thing that has gotten people worried.  Some people argue that AI’s automation will replace human beings with robots/programs in all sorts of jobs.  Dumb automation probably has already replaced humans in many cumbersome, repetitive jobs/functions.  Intelligent machines/programs through AI can probably replace many white collar jobs already.  When too many people are out of work, this could become a huge bother for many powerful people who carry important positions in our society.  Displaced people would want to be able to survive and strive in a society in which they’re no longer productive, but this could mean standing up against the factory owners, corporations, and even the governments.  If not careful, a world of full automation could mean a bloody revolution.  Thus, basic income becomes an urgent question for many leaders in any country in our time.

Nonetheless, in the West, we have a thing that was being taught since the fall of Soviet Union is that communism has failed utterly.  We look at China as if Chinese communistic society is the new capitalist society.  How can basic income fit into a Western society in which communism has been taught to be disgusted upon?  After all, basic income is about rationing, splitting equal income for everyone in a single society.  Isn’t communism is also about rationing and splitting equal things for a community, a society, and in biggest case a country?  I guess, we could argue a mix of basic income with capitalistic values won’t lead to new communism, but it could morph into an entirely different beast.  I guess we should ask, can a strong supportive basic income be an uplifting element for the despondent citizens?  I guess we should consider the humming capitalistic tunes of the middle class in this situation.  Can basic income give the despondent ones a chance to reach the middle and eventually the upper classes within this beastly creation?

Perhaps, basic income may not be the only solution.  Perhaps, we require many more parts of a larger, more creative solution in order for us to tackle the AI’s automation revolution.  Imagine in a society in which doing good things promotes good karma, and this karma translates into real monetary credits.  Can this route take us to a Nirvana?  Basic income to support a crumpling foundation, and on the top of this reparable foundation we decorate it with good karma.  The double edge sword of a good karma/credit system is that the implementation of punishments, punishing the good people who have bad karma/credits.  Then the question should be asked such as what could be the punishments for the people who have bad karma/credits?  This won’t be a good thing if new harsh punishments are there to wreck havoc in lives of good citizens.  It could literally lead to a society in which looks very much like a Nazi one.  Perhaps, karma/credit system should be used for the implementation of a positive, credit/monetary system only and not much more, and no punishment should come along with this very system.  This way, good folks won’t be affected by stupid punishments.  Just imagine good karma/credit system provides even more basic income on the top of the basic income?

I couldn’t let this go. Imagine a society in which isn’t too different from a fantastical Star Trek’s one, because a replicator alone could conjure any item out of the thin air.  Perhaps, a replicator could replace basic income and money and credits altogether?  If such a society and technology exist, this could mean the end of being desperate in a more intelligent universe.  Perhaps, if this to occur, people won’t have the need for ancient money/credit system, because a replicator alone could conjure up anything.  It’s magical.  Anyhow, the summation of all is that an interesting time is upon us, and AI’s automation may be replacing us humans in all sorts of jobs.  The old system isn’t providing an answer to how to create new jobs in an AI universe.  A jobless society would be very different in nature, because people need money to survive.  Without providing jobs to a hungry population, a society could face an upheaval of all sorts.  Can basic income and good karma/credit system provide a way to cope with AI’s automation?

Automation Will Speed Up For Greater Efficiency, People Will Lose Even More Jobs

In the past, the rise of industrialization produced new jobs and discarded the old ones.  With industrialization came new technologies and so forth, thus new civilizations evolved and destroyed the old ones.  People became more urbanized eventually, and the old ways were mostly discarded.  Factories sprang into the existence and assembly lines produced things en masse.  Jobs were abundant for the industrialization was young and healthy.  Industrialization was one of the main catalysts in which out-of-date jobs disappeared en masse.

We don’t really have to know the details of how industrialization of the past could build a civilization of today, because what we’re seeing are real.  Furthermore, China has reinforced the notion of industrialization miracle by using this phenomenon so effectively in which industrialization plus urbanization has brought at least 600 million Chinese people out of poverty.  China is now harboring the largest middle class that the world has ever known.

For India, she is looking at China with bewilderment, because she too has a huge population which will surpass China’s 1.3 billion head count, and yet her industrialization isn’t yet fully developed.  The problem is that something is lurking in time in which even industrialization will soon become the thing of the past.  By then even industrialization will not be able to help India to catch up with China.

What is lurking in time which will eclipse industrialization?  In my opinion, it’s automation.  It’s so simple to see why automation will turn industrialization into nothing more but a tale of history.  As of now, we know industrialization as the catalyst for the rise of modern humans, because it has produced untold amount of jobs and products and in turn pushing human population into new height.  Very soon though, automation will put so many people out of menial and even creative jobs, because so many things will be able to be automated with great efficiency.

Efficiency is the key to a future, because automation will be so efficient in which even more products will be able to be produced.  Unfortunately, people will not be a part of this new enlightenment, because the production will become automation.  Automation does not need human inputs.  I surmise in the early stage of automation, some human inputs will be needed.  When the efficiency of automation becomes fully transpired, human inputs will merely be needed.

Imagine how this future will unfold.  Let’s be simple and take a look at things that are closer to home.  Automation will put truck drivers, taxi drivers, pilots, construction workers, manufacturing workers, programmers, engineers, and even musicians out of job.  It’s simple to see self-driving car technology will be able to replace jobs that require human drivers.  It’s simple to see self-flying plane technology will be able to replace jobs that require pilots.  It’s simple to see the construction process of any building in the future will become evermore automated such as 3D printing machine technology for construction process, thus less construction workers will be needed.  It’s simple to see manufacturing workers will be replaced by machines, because machines don’t demand wages.  Artificial intelligence will be able to replace programmers, engineers, and musician, because the smarter artificial intelligence gets the less human inputs are needed in these jobs.

I bet China and elsewhere in the world are looking toward this automation trend, because these places are already being industrialized.  The next logical step for them is to go automation for even more efficient future.  Unfortunate for India, if she isn’t industrialized fast enough, she may have to face a future in which the world is going full speed ahead for automation.  In the automation world, companies don’t need cheap labor jobs, but these companies can purchase cheap machines to build products.  India will find herself to be vulnerable in such a future for sure.  Besides India, I think anywhere in the world will see automation as a challenge, because automation means less jobs for everybody.

You can argue automation will also create new jobs, but we have to remember that the number of jobs that automation needs won’t be able to replace untold amount of jobs the world needs.  For an example, a manufacturer plant’s automation may require one or two skill engineers to reprogram the automation process, but thousands of employees will be fired for machines are the only answer for automation.  This whole automation thing reminds me of “The Matrix” very much.  The movie “The Matrix” first came out for entertainment, but we may never know it might just be so prophetic in the future.

In summary, automation will give India and China so much pain, because the population sizes of these two countries are so huge.  Huge population means more jobs are needed, but automation will replace so many jobs that huge population may have to cry for mercy.  China will fare better than India if automation is to speed up, because China has the surplus of money, infrastructure, and so on to help her population cope with automation.  India will not fare very well in the automation world, because she is still trying to industrialize her way out of poverty.  In a world where machines replace humans, I think India won’t be able to fully industrialize.  Check out the video right after the break to find more on why India could be in so much pain when automation comes knocking.