Is China Preparing To Go To War Against The United States?

If the United States sanctions North Korea and China won’t go along, I think it’s normal.  If the United States sanctions North Korea and China pretends to go along, I also think it’s normal.  If the United States sanctions North Korea and China is going along with the plan, I don’t think it’s normal!  In fact, I think something big is about to happen.  

We all know China doesn’t want North Korea to be united with South Korea in fear of a South Korea’s victory, allowing the United States to be ever closer to China’s border.  Plus, North Korea got nuclear weapons and China is nervous about the aftermath of such weapons.  For an example, such weapons could be launched from North Korea into China by a force that is no longer friendly to China.  A collapse of North Korean regime could create chaos which allows an opportunity for whoever to launch nuclear warheads into China and avoid the blame at the same time.  Basically, in chaos, you can avoid taking the blame for launching nuclear warheads because you can just argue that wasn’t you and it was somebody else that went crazy during the chaos (i.e., inside North Korea).  China definitely doesn’t want this to happen, ever!

There are many other reasons why China rather has North Korea stays poor, weak, and friendly.  Isn’t it obvious?  Remember the Korean war in the 1950s?  China didn’t have to help North Korea out but they did waste roughly a quarter of a million men in the Korean War to make sure North Korea stayed North Korean.  Why did the Chinese spill so much blood for another country?  I think it was all about strategic calculation on the Chinese part.  Nowadays, even though China is a global superpower and no longer dirt poor, Chinese still thinks North Korea got some values as a weak, friendly state to China.  For obvious reasons I mentioned plus much more.

So, when the Chinese begin to go along with the American sanction scheme to try to collapse the North Korean regime economically, I think it’s something big that is about to be happening.  Let me guess.  I think if China is willing to help the Americans sanction North Korea, this means China is ready to go to war against the United States!  Why?

I think China wants to look good by going along with the United States’ sanction scheme on North Koreans and to win more friends in near term.  Secretly though, I think China is preparing for the day in which China has to attack the United States in North Korea.  For all the reasons I mentioned and if I’m not wrong, China is willing to go to war against the United States, thus China didn’t care to gain some favorable points with the world before North Korean chaos breaks out.

Since China is North Koreans’ main economic lifeline, it’s obvious that Korean regime may collapse if China is really going to sanction North Koreans, for real this time.  If North Korea is about to collapse, North Korea could try to launch an attack on South Korea.  If South Korea gets attacked, the United States would help South Korea defends against the North.  If the North is losing, Chinese will come in again to push the South and the United States back.  This time though, things could get way more catastrophic.  In short, I think that the Chinese think it’s imperative for them to come to the North Koreans’ aid to keep the United States and South Korea away from the Chinese border.

My suspicion is that China is ready to go to war against the United States, and so China doesn’t mind about following the United States’ lead on sanctioning North Korea for real this time — to gain points with the world and to surprise the United States.  After all the United States would have thought that China would only do a weak sanction on North Korea.  Nonetheless, the news has that China orders Chinese businesses to stop dealing with North Koreans and so forth.  Other hard Chinese sanctions are about to or already put in place against the North Koreans. 

I think when North Korea’s economy is completely destroyed, North Korea will attack South Korea.  I think North Korea only got an economy anyway because of China.  So, when North Korea attacks South Korea, the aftermath would be pure chaos.  Of course, there is also a possibility that China invades North Korea to secure nuclear weapons and control North Korea.  This way, the North Koreans still could be a buffer between China and South Korea/United States.

If China invades North Korea, China wouldn’t want the United States to be anywhere near North Korea’s 38th parallel border because China wants to take control of North Korea.  So, if in such chaos and the United States pushes for North Korea control, the United States may as well attack China.  I think this scenario would start a WWIII.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-korean-firms-china-ordered-close-january-114245591.html

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United States’ Allies Think Getting Closer To China

With not a single thread of evidence to back up my logic, but I have a feeling that United States’ allies such as Japan are thinking about getting closer to China.  At first, for an example, Japan would probably pretend to be against China, and Japan wants to use China as a ploy to break free from the United States.  Thus Japan probably wants to boost its own military programs and break free from pacifying position.  Once Japan completes this step, it would want to befriend China, and United States would probably be too hesitant to aggravate a stronger Japan.

I think as China grows stronger and more influential, United States’ allies would use Beijing as a hedge against the United States in trades, deals, bargains, and etc…

What can the United States do?  Unless the United States wants to start a trade war and hot war with China, there isn’t much the United States can do to change allied countries’ trajectories.  I fear such trajectories are all about getting closer to China.  After all, China got the largest middle-class market in the world.  With hefty foreign exchange reserves in trillions of dollars and a growing military power to back China’s overall growing strength, China isn’t going to be bullied by the United States.  United States’ allies know this too, and so they would try to be nice to China just in case they are on the wrong side of the United States.

In conclusion, I don’t think the United States can be too nice to allied countries because these countries are still going to use China as a hedge.  Being too mean to allies, the United States would lose such allies.  Be too tough on China, the United States would force allied countries to choose a side, and they may choose China over the United States.  As long China is humming along in growing strength, I don’t see how easily the United States could contain China.  Of course, nothing would go as plan, and so China may face a difficult future, and that is when the United States could try to contain China.  The question is, how far the United States would want to contain China, because doing it wrong may as well starting a WWIII.

After WWIII, long live sticks and stones!

Maybe, here is a preview of how Japan is getting closer to China.  https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/c53528a3-d7ae-3e05-9851-6dc8daefac8c/ss_pm-abe-celebrates-anniversary.html

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Weaker Dollar, Stronger Yuan May Hurt The United States And Help China In The Long Run!

I’m no expert in economic matters, but I just want to use my own personal logic to make sense of a few things that are currently happening.  People are seeing that the Dollar is weakening as we speak, and the Yuan is growing stronger as we speak.  Some people say weaker Dollar is a good thing because export will become more profitable.  Furthermore, when export becomes profitable, it also drives up the manufacturing sector at home.  That’s the theory for some people, but I feel that it’s way more complicated than this.

Since the United States isn’t a world manufacture hub — China is holding this title — the United States’ exports won’t matter as much unless the United States becomes the world manufacture hub.  Sure, with weaker Dollar, the United States’ exports will become more competitive than before.  The question is, will a little gain in competitiveness in exports spur the manufacturing sector at home?  Meanwhile, weaker Dollar will make the United States’ imports a lot more expensive.

I think the United States currently imports a lot more than exports.  The United States’ import is at $2.25 trillion and the export is at $1.45 trillion for the year of 2016, according to Wikipedia.  If the United States’ exports continue to slack even with the weak Dollar and the imports continue to grow, the United States could face an even stronger trade deficit.  For an example, manufacturer companies in the United States may have to import more expensive materials from the outside to manufacture products at home for selling across the world and at home.  This may not make the products at home cheaper for homegrown consumers.  Furthermore, this will increase the trade deficit in manufacturing sector if not enough products within the United States get to export to balance out the import costs.

Weak Dollar will increase less buying power for the Americans who go abroad for vacation, business, and so forth.  Weak Dollar can make purchases of products from foreign companies through online websites or offline imports more expensive for the American consumers.  For an example, I could be buying a music plugin from an online website which belongs to a French company, and with a weak Dollar, I could be paying more for this software.

I guess good things and bad things do exist even when the Dollar is weak or strong.  Nonetheless, the most interesting question is can the United States fare better when the Dollar is weaker or stronger.  In my opinion, weaker Dollar can help spur export a bit, but if the United States’ exports don’t carry the whole United States’ overall, long-term economy, then the weaker Dollar will be a very bad thing!

What about China?  If the United States enters a trade war against China, China can increase import tariff costs for the products from the United States.  This could hurt the United States’ export market because weaker Dollar would be neutralized by this move from China.  Furthermore, China can also buy up weak Dollar on the cheap to make Yuan stronger if this would serve China’s agenda.  Of course, stronger Yuan for China could make China’s exports look expensive.  Still, from what I’ve heard, China is trying to spur demands at home to create a bigger home consumer market so China won’t be relying on too much from the export market.  If this is the case, then cheap Dollar would be beneficial for China in a big way!

Stronger Yuan would allow Chinese who are going abroad to get more bang for the buck.  Meanwhile, Chinese imports would become cheaper, and so China won’t have to spend so much money to import stuff.  As China’s export market isn’t doing so bad and the imports get cheaper, stronger Yuan allows China to continue to reform her consumption market.  Foreign companies would love to enter China’s bigger homegrown consumption market because China has 1.4 billion headcounts and growing.  As China becomes an ever more important factor for foreign companies due to the size of Chinese population and market, China can begin to dictate tastes, styles, fashions, and so forth worldwide.  Chinese culture will become ever more influential if Chinese market becomes the most important market in the world.

With a weaker Dollar and stronger Yuan, entering a trade war against China might be very bad for the United States!  China can sanction the United States’ companies, entities, and so much more to crash the United States economy.  Of course, a trade war would be bad for China too, because the United States’ imports from China do matter to China a lot.  Nonetheless, as China doesn’t rely on the export market so much, a trade war between the United States and China won’t deter Chinese economic reform plan.  After all, China wants to grow the homegrown consumption market!  While growing a homegrown consumption market to rely less on the export market, China relies on the cheaper import market to balance out the reduction of Chinese exports.  Weaker Dollar and stronger Yuan will allow China to transit from the export market to a service market, also to move to a higher value-added export market — all in all – making this transition in a smoother fashion.

In conclusion, I think China can make the best out of either weaker or stronger Dollar, and the United States — as long as the country stays less competitive — won’t be able to have the upper hand if a trade war occurs between China and the United States.  Meanwhile, China can use stronger Yuan to buy cheap debts from United States’ weak Dollar to prop up China Yuan’s strength.  This, in turn, will actually help China transits from a manufacturing to a service economy.  As the low value-added market goes away in China, China has to accelerate the reform of the manufacturing sector at home so Chinese future export market will be more about high value-added products.  Anyhow, if the United States isn’t going to be able to use the opportunity of a weaker Dollar to reform her economy somehow to make the United States’ economy more competitive against rivals such as China, in the long run other rivals will use the weaker Dollar as the opportunity to make their own economies a lot stronger.

We Should Heed Chinese Minister of Foreign Affair’s, Wang Yi, Call For Diplomacy In Regarding To Tension Between the United States and North Korea

A rumor has that China has moved around 150,000 troops to the border of North Korea.  Meanwhile, a Chinese minister of foreign affair, Wang Yi, has warned both the United Sates and North Korea to not start a war on Korean Peninsula, and he also said all sides will lose if this to occur.  Wang Yi is one of those top 7, if I’m not wrong, people who are directly taking orders right underneath Chinese president Xi Jin ping.  His words are to be taken seriously, and so it’s going to be foolish to believe that China isn’t going to protect North Korea from an attack.  Lately, online and offline news have surmised that China would help the United States to take out North Korea, but I think these news are too optimistic.  I believe that China would use North Korea as a proxy war to drag the United States in once the North Korea war gets going.

United States’ arm forces are spreading thin throughout the world.  Russia is tempting to expand further West while China is going to expand further in South and East China Seas.  A war with North Korea will be expensive for the United States, because it won’t be a quick war unless the United States uses nuclear weapons.  Nonetheless, once a nuclear missile from the West flies toward the East, Russia and China would quick to release theirs toward the West, because they won’t trust the United States’ true targets.  This means a nuclear war could happen if a nuke starts to fly off in any direction.  Invading North Korea through ground forces requires the United States to persuade ally countries to go along, and the war will be very expensive.  Furthermore, if not careful, North Korea war this time could be a repeat of Viet Nam war in which the North would eventually swallow the South.

The United States still has Afghanistan, Syria, and several other places to be worried about, and so adding North Korea to the plate in a time in which the United States is still trying to fix her economy is rather worrisome.  Although China isn’t favoring the North Korea position in regarding North Korea’s nuclear development, but China hates to see the South swallows the North even more.  This means China would aid North Korea once again once the war starts.  In the long run, I think China is going to use the United States to push North Korea to abandon nuclear development and nuclear weapons altogether in exchange for China’s protection.  If I’m not wrong, I think China’s position is very clear, because China is strategically regarding North Korea as a buffer between the United States and South Korea.  If I’m not wrong, a war with North Korea in our time will pull China into a war against the United States like it had happened in the 1950s (Korean War).

South Korea should be very worried, because once missiles start flying, North Korea will pour down South and try to repeat the Korean War.  Basically, North Korea is a very poor country, and so it got nothing to lose.  South Korea is a very rich country, and so it got everything to protect.  This time with modern weapons, things can be so much worse.  Chinese minister of foreign affair, Wang Yi, in the video right after the break warns both the United States and North Korea in not starting a war on Korean Peninsula.

Can Offshore Balancing Be More Realistic For The United States’ Foreign Relations?

Although the United States’ old grand strategy was almost forgotten since the fallen of the Soviet Union, but after so many unfinished businesses around the world such as in Afghanistan and elsewhere the United States may have to revisit an old grand strategy which is known as offshore balancing.  According to Stephen Walt in the video right after the break, he suggests that the United States would be better off in foreign relations in applying offshore balancing for foreign relation building.  Offshore balancing may save the United States from overspending in foreign policy matters, but offshore balancing isn’t discouraging in building healthy relations with foreign powers.  Perhaps, if offshore balancing is done right, the United States may have even more friends than enemies while building a stronger nation at home.  Anyhow, I guess no known strategy is invulnerable to everything, and so offshore balancing may not always be best for certain situations.  In my opinion, Stephen Walt does sound very convincing in his argument that the offshore balancing may help the United States navigates the evermore dangerous globe in a more efficient and healthier manner.