What Will Happen After COVID-19 Pandemic Goes Away?

Although COVID-19 is still running rampant in the West, especially in the United States, I think when the dust is settling, everything will be amazing again. Why am I so positive like this even though we don’t even yet have a mass vaccination for the COVID-19 pandemic? Just let’s say I believe in the effects of human nature, and certain effects of human nature will never change even if the world is going to end tomorrow!

Right now, people are not going to movie theaters, eating out, shopping at luxurious malls, and whatnot, but believe me I think when COVID-19 is over — you can believe that people will do all of that and even more than they have had ever done in their entire life! I think the feelings of being pampered and served are so amazing that people want to feel something like that again! After all, they are being cooped up indoors for so long during the pandemic — once COVID-19 is gone — isn’t it obvious that there will be a revenge of massive consumerism on the service sector?

Currently, malls and other public physical consumerism/service spaces are not being favored by everyone for obvious reasons — DUH! — not getting infected by COVID-19… So, let me tell you why am I being Mr. Obvious(!) — well, let’s say it’s common sense folks! Let me ask you this, do you want to go out and having a fun dinner with your best friends in various delicious restaurants that you used to go out before COVID-19? I would! So, for me being optimistic about how things would return to normal or things would turn out to be even better than how things were before the whole COVID-19 thing is rather Mr. Obvious(!)…

One small problem though! I think my prediction could be a little off from the bulls-eye because of the negative effects of the COVID-19 aftermath. Although we’re not out of the wood yet and I still could imagine that the people — who are losing jobs due to the massive shutdown of various restaurants and other service businesses — may not be able to get back into the same job career that they had enjoyed before the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies that are being badly affected by COVID-19 may not be able to survive even if COVID-19 is going away. Many retail stores may have to file for bankruptcy! Survivable companies may have to employ more robots and automation to recuperate the costs that they lost during the COVID-19 pandemic, thus these companies may hire fewer human employees.

The negative effects of the COVID-19 aftermath could be so huge that it could push down the market prices for unfavorable real estate areas. For example, several real estate areas could see people walk away from their mortgage payments since they could not afford the mortgage payments any longer for not having to be able to find a new job. When the real estate sector turns negative — depending on how bad it could become — it could also affect the businesses in such neighborhoods. Local businesses could see a huge loss in revenues. It’s like a chain of effects or chain of reactions, and the negativities could multiply throughout the economy.

Nonetheless, I feel that the economy is a strange beast because it could contain both the negatives and the positives all at the same time. I could see a scenario of people will go hungry and yet some people go out and spend money like crazy to make up for the time that they were forced to be indoor for so long during the COVID-19 pandemic. Perhaps, we could see the unbalance of the income quality thus we could have huge inequality in income after the COVID-19 is going away. Some people will be able to do more and enjoy their life more during the COVID-19 aftermath, and other people will have to go hungry and become homeless. I just pray that everyone would be able to do better and feel better after this horrendous COVID-19 pandemic — but we all know praying might not be enough. Let’s hope I could be so wrong, and everything will be super-duper after the COVID-19 goes away.

Can the United States Invasion of Iraq in 2003 Be A Good Model for China’s Possible Invasion of Taiwan?

I’m no strategic kind of person since I’m rather a straightforward chap. Nonetheless, I do have my own opinions in the matter of whatever could be happening in the next decades or so. I don’t think I’m prophetic, but I guess if you keep guessing, something ought to turn out just like the way you’ve had imagined. Thus, if the experts are correct on how China would want to invade Taiwan soon, then I think China will do it in a similar fashion to how the United States had done Iraq in 2003. A complete overwhelming show of force.

By showing an overwhelmed show of force in Iraq, the United States has made China eagerly to update and upgrade its military structure, tech strategy, and weapon knowhows. China would not want to be the next Iraq. So, it is logical for China to think like the United States if China has to invade Taiwan. I think China will try to overwhelm Taiwan in an invasion of Taiwan to the point that, perhaps, could shame the one that the United States had done in Iraq in 2003. Why? By overwhelming an enemy force rather easily, China sends a message to unfriendly countries that it’s not to be trifled with.

I think the invasion of Iraq by the United States and the fall of Saddam Hussein had pushed China to be even more cautious and paranoid of the United States. This event may have had pushed China into going all out in upgrading its military and related capabilities. Furthermore, China is now eager to advance in other tech industry sectors such as quantum computer/satellite and space techs. This way, China could use these advances during peacetime for economic purposes — but the dual usage of these capabilities will be a tremendous, helpful kind of force in wartime for China.

An Honest Opinion: Can the West Decouple from China?

I have a feeling that even though the West is trying to decouple from China, with job loss increases during an ongoing pandemic, I don’t see how a country like the United States can bring jobs home since unemployment is going to be high still. By this, I feel that with more people are relying on the government to create jobs and whatnot, bring jobs home mean companies in the United States have to hire more and spend more to produce anything. Meanwhile, China is once again increasing the output of their manufacturing, albeit that wages are increasing in China, the living costs in China are still way cheaper than the West, and so I think their wages won’t be rising to a point that foreign companies want to shift their manufacturing bases away from China faster. After all, producing in China does save on the costs of shipping and exporting.

Producing at home means that local companies have to be able to produce things cheaper than their foreign imports. Usually, import stuff should be more expensive than locally made since there are import costs and shipping costs that would add on to the top of the costs of the goods that are being made elsewhere. Unfortunately, it’s also depending on how productive a local manufacturing base is and other variables such as how cheap are the local wages and whatnot. Furthermore, we also have to worry about how is the local economy is doing. To add salt to the already infected wound, the COVID 19 pandemic is still an ongoing thing. So, I don’t see how decoupling from China is easy at all.

When we are trying to decouple from China, we should be prepared for China’s backlash such as how China would ramp up their distaste for foreign products even though most of these products are being produced in China. For an instance, China could ramp up the investigation into foreign companies that are actively opened for business in China, and by doing this China could persuade its people to trust less on foreign imports. By doing this China could also support their local economy through local made, and so in the long run China would be less exposed to foreign imports. I also see that China is producing much more stuff for foreign countries than foreign countries produce stuff for them — in a way why would China import more stuff when they could make everything at home?

As the United States tries to ramp up the pace of decoupling with China, China could see itself ramp up the pace of relying less on foreign imports. Meanwhile, China could also make it a lot harder for foreign companies to operate in China. At home, Western companies are facing the uglier local economy, and so these companies may not be able to produce higher revenues from local markets. Now, through geopolitical conflicts between China and the United States, it would make a lot harder for Western companies to make profits in China. Of course, Asia is a big place, and so Western companies should be able to ramp up their marketing elsewhere! The question is can other places replace the loss of the Chinese market?

The Future Is EVs!

Electric vehicles are hot at the moment because these cars are being promoted as futuristic rides. Most importantly, companies that are trying to build EVs — are trying to marry the most futuristic technologies into these EVs such as fully autonomous driving. In the United States, we got Tesla, but in China, there are hundreds (or probably more since I don’t know the exact number but I know there are a lot of them) of new EV makers compete for the same niche but eat away the traditional ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) car market. For Chinese EV makers, I’m particularly interested in Nio, Geely, and now Aiways.

As we all know the largest EV market in the whole wide world is in China. So, it’s natural for me to be very interested in the Chinese EV makers. Aiways is different than the other two EV makers I mentioned because Aiways isn’t yet a public corporation/company — and only a three-year-old (private) company. Yet, Aiways can already deliver Aiways U5 to the European market. This means Aiways is the first Chinese car company to deliver EV cars outside of China (homegrown) market. This makes me wish for Aiways to start an IPO (Initial Public Offering) soon so investors around the world can begin investing in Aiways’ adventure as a hot new EV maker.

I just sold all of my Nio position when Nio hit $9.26. Now, Nio is like around $12.88 at closing for the day. I guess I had sold Nio a bit too early. Anyhow, why did I sell all of my Nio position? Well, I read several news articles that had mentioned that the U.S. is trying to pass a bill that would target several Chinese companies that are being listed on the U.S. stock exchange. Since Nio has the support of China’s local government Hefei (capital of Anhui province), I fear that Nio could be one of those Chinese companies that would be targeted since it’s being listed on the U.S. stock exchange. This bill was passed by the Senate and is now in the process of getting ready to go through the House. If the House is going to pass this bill too, I think the chance is high for many Chinese companies to be targeted by this bill. This bill is the reason I’m not so hot for Nio.

What I’ve read so far on the web is that several big-name Chinese companies such as Alibaba are either already listing or going to list their shares on Hong Kong’s stock exchange because they are ready for the days that they could no longer list their stocks on the U.S. stock exchanges. I surmise that Nio might think about this too but I have no insight on if Nio would do this or not. In reality, I got no info on what Nio would do as I’m just another investor who got his info on Nio through the Internet.

I have bought some shares of Geely on Hong Kong’s stock exchange through a U.S. stockbroker. I’m interested in Geely because this company is also trying to build awesome EVs. Geely also owns Volvo, a 10% share of Daimler (if I remember correctly), Lynk & Co, PROTON, and Lotus. I think Volvo is a very good brand, and Geely is doing an awesome job in upkeeping the brand’s good name. I also like Lotus since I love its new supercar Evija (2000hp).

Geely is also well known for making affordable cars for China’s local consumers. If I’m not wrong I think Geely delivered around 2.1 million cars in 2019. This means Geely is no joke! Latest but very well received compact SUV from Geely is Coolray.

Geely is also supporting Volvo’s Polestar to come out with their own EVs. I’m interested in Polestar Precept.

In conclusion, I’m interested in investing in China’s car market because I think China’s huge population of 1.4 billion people and counting is also interested in buying Chinese cars. Furthermore, Chinese car companies will venture out of their homegrown market and start selling cars in Europe and elsewhere in the world. As a small investor, I love to look for more ways to generate income, and so investing in Chinese automakers is a no brainer for me. I think EV automakers will be able to eat away a huge chunk of traditional (ICE) automakers’ market share. I think the future in terms of cars is EVs and not of ICE types of cars. Naturally, I’m interested in investing in EV automakers.

Disclaimer: I had bought shares of Nio but sold them. I’m currently owning some shares of Geely (Hong Kong) through a U.S. broker. Naturally, I’m biased toward Nio and Geely in a positive manner. This means I love to see these companies do well in developing futuristic cars and selling new cars. I do not give out stock advice. This blog post is all about my opinions on what I think of what stocks I like to invest or have invested in. So, please do your homework before investing in anything and do not take my opinions as stock advice and risk losing real money.

Can New Energy Vehicles Win The Race Against ICE?

Why do I think new energy vehicle makers such as Tesla will be the biggest winners in the race of selling more cars in the near and longer future? Just think about it! Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) has had been around forever, and it’s as good as it gets! Before Tesla introduced EVs (Electric Vehicles), a self-driving car wasn’t even a big deal until Tesla pushed hard on introducing self-driving levels onto its own EVs. As new energy vehicle makers eager to compete against ICE, they want to prove that their vehicles are more modern, longer-lasting, faster, stronger, and smarter — thus innovation is going to be unstoppable in the new energy vehicle sector which is a sub-sector of the auto industry. Eventually, this sub-sector could overtake ICE one day for good because after all — driving EVs and other new energy vehicles helps the world stops the global warming phenomenon.

Disclaimer: I have an investment in a stock that belongs to an EV maker. Thus, I tend to be more biased with a positive attitude toward the EV industry.

Could Spooky Action at A Distance Occur Only Because A Force Outside The Universe With Limit Function Allows What Is Going On Inside The Universe To Occur?

So, to my understanding, the more qbits there are the faster quantum computer can be. For who doesn’t know, qbit is a Quantum Bit. Before the world was introduced to qbit, scientists like Niels Bohr and Albert Einstein were arguing about the realness of the Quantum Mechanics science since they weren’t sure why the fundamentals for the Quantum Mechanics are so different than the traditional Physics ones. I think Niels Bohr’s and Albert Einstein’s many heated debates gave way to the idea of Quantum Entanglement. Einstein was frustrated how could one quantum particle instantly know what the other quantum particle would do and behave accordingly as if the cause and effect would instantly occur regardless of the distance between the two quantum particles. Einstein said that this is like spooky action at a distance. Nowadays, we’re trying to harness this spooky action at a distance for forming our quantum computing foundation by using strings of qbits to program quantum software so we could use the software to calculate results that would be zillion times faster than the traditional supercomputers that use traditional microchips.

The importance of harnessing the power of Quantum Entanglement could not be described in a determinable amount at our present time since we would never know what this power could yield further technologies that would form our future tech environment. Nonetheless, we already see how powerful this power is as we are trying to harness it to build quantum computers. Thus, I think it’s important for us all to understand or even to make stupid suggestions on why and how could quantum entanglement occurs in the natural world where spooky action at a distance is possible.

I imagine spooky action at a distance is like God who is a programmer and he is using a godly software to draw two similar objects that are the cause and effect — these objects should spring into existence simultaneously whenever one quantum particle of the two related ones is being disturbed. This way, we could also imagine an artist (not using a computer with software) who is using a piece of paper to draw similar objects at the same time by using his left and right hands. For this instance, we could imagine the artist as the spooky connection between the two quantum particles. To further our fantasy, I think we could imagine the artist is not the artist, but the artist is a force that is outside of our universe — this force can and will manipulate all activities between quantum particles by the law of this force which can be observed by us through the consequences that the force had dictated. At this point, I think arguing that this is a force is making more sense since this force has its own limit in which it could only operate the spooky action at a distance whenever a correlated quantum particle is activated. Still, I think it’s important for me to imagine that this force is outside of our universe and cannot be contained within the universe that we’re currently occupied.

In summary, it’s easier for me to imagine that spooky action at a distance between two quantum particles could happen only when a force, an artist, or a God who/what resides outside of our universe — to be able to allow the chemistry between two correlated quantum particles to have the same cause and effect outcome. Of course, this what I suggest and imagine up and thinking of, and so I could imagine how wrong this idea could be. I don’t think there would even be a second person who could agree with me more about this idea. Anyhow, it’s an interesting idea I think!