As the world becomes evermore connected, it begins to look like the historic dramas. One of those historic dramas came easily to me was the Warring States period in ancient China. Chaos was broken out for as long as two hundred and fifty something years, and many ancient folks were slain by the God of war (i.e., meaning deaths in wartime). Nations in ancient China’s Warring States period were keened to spy and create wedges between each other for their nations were so connected through trades and wars. Instead of finding peace for two hundred and fifty something years, through intimate connectivity they fought to the deaths for that long. In the end, the ruler of Quin, who became the first emperor of unified ancient China, was able to provide peace for most parts throughout the Warring States as these states became a unified ancient China. Nonetheless, China first emperor Shihuang-di ruled ancient unified China with absolute terror through his dictatorship style, and so right after his death his successors failed to retain a unified China, leading to the breakup of his dynasty and allowing the rise of Han dynasty.
The intricacies of the ancient connected Warring States in ancient China is somewhat reminding us how the world can be so connected today and yet peace is nowhere in sight, whatsoever. In Ukraine, we have rebels versus the new government, dividing Ukraine up. In the Middle East, ISIS is rising but their advance is temporary being stopped by U.S.A.’s bombings and whatnot. Syria is still struggling with its rebels of many factions. Protests have broken out throughout the world, one in Hong Kong, another in Ferguson, MO, and so forth. Afghanistan and Egypt are not doing too well, and Afghanistan is like a fail state. Ebola is spreading in Africa and slowly making its way toward the West. Russia and United States are planning to be in each other’s way as much as possible, and each country is throwing out sanctions at the other country without much care for the consequences that will play out in the near future.
For an example, Russia is ordering France’s warships, but United States is against this and so France is capitulating between delivering and not delivering to Russia the ordered warships. Russia is knowing quite well that it can build the warships if it wants to, but to drive the wedge between United States and France Russia decides to go ahead and pushing France to deliver the warships. Meanwhile, Russia is carrying out an engagement with China so the wedding between the two countries may have a brighter future, thus Russia is signing all sorts of contracts with China, to the benefits of whom we may never know. As Russia and China become ever closer, United States will have to face the possibility of losing even more influences throughout the world’s International Order. Why? China is the largest trading country in the world, surpassing the United States already; China demands whoever wants to do trade with China needs to swap Yuan and not of Dollar. This could mean the Dollar’s world influence begins to wane slowly. Meanwhile, Russia is also one of the largest energy trading countries which demands others to trade not in Dollar whenever it’s possible, and this further the waning of the Dollar’s world influence.
Russia is dangerous to the United States as this country can persuade other energy trading countries to begin to move away from using Dollar for trade and reserve accounts. The eroding of the Dollar’s world influence will be hard on the United States in a big way. The United States needs to print money to help the economy from sliding back into the atmosphere of 2009 (i.e., financial crisis of 2009), but if the Dollar is no longer valuable throughout the world the United States may have to pay a hefty premium on the interests that derive from the foreign borrowings. Why? Countries around the world may fear the inflation train in the United States cannot be stopped and the hyperinflation would kick in, thus devaluing the Dollar to the point of worthlessness. If this situation to occur in a time that China and Russia are encouraging the world to use other currencies and not of Dollar, the United States may not be able to use the Dollar as a currency to barter and trade for whatever with the rest of the world. Thus, printing more Dollar can only become pointless. If the United States finds itself in such a situation, borrowing foreign countries’ money to help rebuild the economy within might not be wise as the interest rates would go through the roof.
Of course, if the United States has a vibrant economy with strong industrial base sectors such as manufacturing to back the economy up when hard time hits folks in the gut, then the United States can fair whatever weather quite well, regardless of how China and Russia want to move away from the Dollar. Nonetheless, the United States doesn’t have much in term of manufacturing since manufacturing jobs and productions have been moving to other countries for awhile already. Whether manufacturing jobs are moving to India, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and whatnot, I doubt that the United States can stop the trend of seeing manufacturing jobs from leaving the United States. After all, the world is evermore connected, thus capitalism is fully functioning and working hard as always, providing greener pastures for cows to graze such as cheaper labor market, higher profit environment, less taxing environment and so on…
Since United States is not a weak country for the last 100 years or so if I’m not really wrong on the historic time quantity there, thus the United States still has options to turn the tide of favors back home. Nonetheless, as the United States tries hard to win back the tide of favors, other countries are too hard at work to make sure things are going their ways. With rising China, angrier Russia, and a worried United States, the world will see a much more chaotic future as these three powerful forces can demand the rest to capitulate in making decisions for a future as a whole. A future according to whom we may ask though. As a more connected world, we think we may see a more harmonious future, but instead we may see a more chaotic future, somewhat similarly scripting to one of those historic dramas.